I understand the singularity and I am not arguing against it. It is reasonable to expect exponential development as a rule, but that doesn't mean development ha

I understand the singularity and I am not arguing against it. It is reasonable to expect exponential development as a rule, but that doesn't mean development happens smoothly. The intended point was about how foreign the world would look to an average person transplanted 50 years in the future. The original comment asserted the first half of the century had a more dramatic change than the second half, and there is a good argument for this. The links you provided are very good but they deal more with theory than actual observations by a normal person. There is one specific concrete example given in those articles - Moore's law. This is a very good example of exponential development, but only to a point. Someone correct me if I am wrong, but Moore's law was helped because its very existence affected the result. To some extent industry even scheduled their advances. If someone lied to Intel and said a competitor was getting much better speeds, I bet you we would have seen some faster improvements.