3 ms·

When it took off, it was only 1086.

uniformlyrandom 9y ago
I had to skim the article to make sure you were not kidding. In retrospect, this is not so unusual - this was a rescue operation, so regular no-flying constraints did not apply. And normally, ~4% of women are pregnant, so EV for number of pregnant and ready to give birth women is 10860.04(percentarge pregnant)0.5(percentage of women)/9(only 9-month pregnant are ready to give birth) ~= 2.41. What surprising is that they gave birth during the flight, and not on any other day of the month. TRansition from danger to relative safety, I guess?
- whatever_dude 9y ago
  A rescue operation probably prioritized "women and children first" so I'd assume there's a higher likelihood of pregnant women in flight, therefore higher likelihood of births.
- mesofile 9y ago
  and/or change in atmospheric pressure?
- nly 9y ago
  Maybe they evacuated a maternity unit.
- FabHK 9y ago
  Yes, so if time of birth is uniformly random (haha) across the final month, then, assuming the flight took, say, half a day, you'd still have to multiply by 0.5/30, so have only ~0.05 expected child births. Still surprising, in other words. Good chance pregnant women were prioritised.
  - tzs 9y ago
    It was also probably a stressful and frightening flight. A lot of people believe that this can increase the chances that a woman will go into labor [1], although a quick round of Googling didn't turn up anything convincing on whether or not that is true or just a myth. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RyRrz9Soutw https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RyRrz9Soutw
- avip 9y ago
  500 women in age give ~10 birth/year. Probability of birth in a given day is therefore 100 * (1 - (364 / 365.0) ^ 10) ~ 3%
- Banthum 9y ago
  I feel fairly comfortable saying that in a group of Ethiopians in 1991, probably more than 4% are pregnant. For comparison, I've read that 10% of Syrian women in the refugee camps were pregnant at any given time. Doing the math (with world bank stats): Ethiopia fertility 1991: 7.2 Ethiopia female life expectancy 1991: 49 Total pregnancy time: 7.2 * 0.75 years = 5.4 years Lifespan proportion spent pregnant: 5.4 / 49 = 11%

I had to skim the article to make sure you were not kidding. In retrospect, this is not so unusual - this was a rescue operation, so regular no-flying constraints did not apply. And normally, ~4% of women are pregnant, so EV for number of pregnant and ready to give birth women is 10860.04(percentarge pregnant)0.5(percentage of women)/9(only 9-month pregnant are ready to give birth) ~= 2.41. What surprising is that they gave birth during the flight, and not on any other day of the month. TRansition from danger to relative safety, I guess?

whatever_dude 9y ago
A rescue operation probably prioritized "women and children first" so I'd assume there's a higher likelihood of pregnant women in flight, therefore higher likelihood of births.
mesofile 9y ago
and/or change in atmospheric pressure?
nly 9y ago
Maybe they evacuated a maternity unit.
FabHK 9y ago
Yes, so if time of birth is uniformly random (haha) across the final month, then, assuming the flight took, say, half a day, you'd still have to multiply by 0.5/30, so have only ~0.05 expected child births. Still surprising, in other words. Good chance pregnant women were prioritised.
- tzs 9y ago
  It was also probably a stressful and frightening flight. A lot of people believe that this can increase the chances that a woman will go into labor [1], although a quick round of Googling didn't turn up anything convincing on whether or not that is true or just a myth. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RyRrz9Soutw https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RyRrz9Soutw
avip 9y ago
500 women in age give ~10 birth/year. Probability of birth in a given day is therefore 100 * (1 - (364 / 365.0) ^ 10) ~ 3%
Banthum 9y ago
I feel fairly comfortable saying that in a group of Ethiopians in 1991, probably more than 4% are pregnant. For comparison, I've read that 10% of Syrian women in the refugee camps were pregnant at any given time. Doing the math (with world bank stats): Ethiopia fertility 1991: 7.2 Ethiopia female life expectancy 1991: 49 Total pregnancy time: 7.2 * 0.75 years = 5.4 years Lifespan proportion spent pregnant: 5.4 / 49 = 11%