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I've driven in an electric vehicle, I had a great time. That being said, you can show why electronic will continue to struggle using an Excel spreadsheet. Batt

I've driven in an electric vehicle, I had a great time. That being said, you can show why electronic will continue to struggle using an Excel spreadsheet. Batteries have come a long way, making electronic expensive but workable, but even then 30 minute fast charge times are a bottleneck for general acceptance as is the range they can put in a sub-$30K vehicle. And even the above might not be a hunderance if hybrids didn't exist. Problem is that electronic is competing in a marketplace with hybrids able to be "recharged" at the pump in minutes, with superior range, lower prices ($23K start for a Prius), and even the ability to be plug-in for all electric short journeys (e.g. Prius Prime). I'd be lying if I said I didn't want a Model 3, but they're still right overall.

WorldMaker 9y ago
I think recharge times and range "anxiety" are red herrings that are going to quickly change in perception. The Bolt, Model 3, and Nissan Leaf 2.0 are all very well on the way to setting "cheap" high-range battery electric cars. "Edge" charging (home, office park, grocery/mall shopping) is a game changer that isn't being marketed very well to the general public (and yes, has issues for non-homeowners in the short/immediate term, but that's a separate discussion) yet. On average, a car sits more than it is driven, and all that time is a charging opportunity. The electric distribution industry doesn't need to compete with the gas supply chain here: gas needs to compete with electricity. Hydrogen Fuel Cells replace one terribly over-complicated supply chain for an even more terribly over-complicated supply chain, and again, it can't compete in the long term with the commodity electricity infrastructure already in place. A 30-minute stop every ~250+ miles isn't a big bottleneck. Single trips of that length or more are almost entirely in the long tail of car trips, beyond the median, mean, and mode. American car culture is uniquely steeped in some macho idea of driving halfway across an entire continent just for a weekend getaway, and that's not going to be stymied by a few extra 30 minute breaks (and might be better for it, with a few more drivers a little less road hangry or exhausted).
- sandover 9y ago
  People who don't have electric cars still seem to have a mindset about refueling that's based on gasoline vehicles. I have driven electric cars for 4+ years. I have charged in public ONCE -- and that was mostly for entertainment value. I didn't bother with a fast charger at home, either, I just plug it into a regular outlet. Whenever the car is home, it's plugged in. It trickle charges overnight. So typically, it's almost always at 100% or close enough when my wife or I leave the house. Anyone with a parking spot _at home_ with access to a power outlet can do the same. Public charging stations just don't matter in this usage pattern. Home charging capabilities matter way, way more. Now, this is for a city car -- and we've had electric cars with limited range (100 miles). But you quickly find that it's very rare to have a reason to drive more than 100 miles in a city in a day. In cases of a super-long commute, or a driving-heavy job, things are different, but in those circumstances, gas cars or longer range electrics would win out anyway. But the 80/20 case for most people who live in cities is the city car pattern, and for that pattern, electrics with home charging work fine. (All the above only applies for the next 5-10 years while cars can't drive themselves. After that, none of this matters, and apparently most auto execs still don't see that either.)
maxsilver 9y ago
I don't disagree with any of your points. But I think the technology will solve them. Its like candlemakers got to see the worlds first lightbulb for the first time, and are going "well, the glass is really fragile. And the electricity still has to come from somewhere". That's not wrong, those are all true points. But it seems crystal clear that despite the early shortcomings this technology will lead the future. Electric Cars seem the same way. There are edge cases they don't handle today, this is true. But electrics can already handle 80%+ of all driving needs today, and those remaining edge cases are being solved at a fairly rapid pace. In just the last few years, we've already seen the range rise substantially and the prices drop slightly. (Compare the 2011 Leaf with ~84 mile battery had a base MSRP of $34k (inflation adjusted to $38k in 2017 dollars), to the current 2017 Bolt with ~238 mile battery at a base MSRP of $36k). And of course, used vehicles are bringing the TCO down, so much so that even middle class people can easily afford electric cars. Older used Nissan Leaf cars often sell for as low as $9k. It seems obvious to me that this technology will continue to improve so that for those people who can't switch to electric today, they will certainly be able to in the near future.

WorldMaker 9y ago

I think recharge times and range "anxiety" are red herrings that are going to quickly change in perception. The Bolt, Model 3, and Nissan Leaf 2.0 are all very well on the way to setting "cheap" high-range battery electric cars. "Edge" charging (home, office park, grocery/mall shopping) is a game changer that isn't being marketed very well to the general public (and yes, has issues for non-homeowners in the short/immediate term, but that's a separate discussion) yet. On average, a car sits more than it is driven, and all that time is a charging opportunity. The electric distribution industry doesn't need to compete with the gas supply chain here: gas needs to compete with electricity. Hydrogen Fuel Cells replace one terribly over-complicated supply chain for an even more terribly over-complicated supply chain, and again, it can't compete in the long term with the commodity electricity infrastructure already in place. A 30-minute stop every ~250+ miles isn't a big bottleneck. Single trips of that length or more are almost entirely in the long tail of car trips, beyond the median, mean, and mode. American car culture is uniquely steeped in some macho idea of driving halfway across an entire continent just for a weekend getaway, and that's not going to be stymied by a few extra 30 minute breaks (and might be better for it, with a few more drivers a little less road hangry or exhausted).

sandover 9y ago
People who don't have electric cars still seem to have a mindset about refueling that's based on gasoline vehicles. I have driven electric cars for 4+ years. I have charged in public ONCE -- and that was mostly for entertainment value. I didn't bother with a fast charger at home, either, I just plug it into a regular outlet. Whenever the car is home, it's plugged in. It trickle charges overnight. So typically, it's almost always at 100% or close enough when my wife or I leave the house. Anyone with a parking spot _at home_ with access to a power outlet can do the same. Public charging stations just don't matter in this usage pattern. Home charging capabilities matter way, way more. Now, this is for a city car -- and we've had electric cars with limited range (100 miles). But you quickly find that it's very rare to have a reason to drive more than 100 miles in a city in a day. In cases of a super-long commute, or a driving-heavy job, things are different, but in those circumstances, gas cars or longer range electrics would win out anyway. But the 80/20 case for most people who live in cities is the city car pattern, and for that pattern, electrics with home charging work fine. (All the above only applies for the next 5-10 years while cars can't drive themselves. After that, none of this matters, and apparently most auto execs still don't see that either.)

maxsilver 9y ago

I don't disagree with any of your points. But I think the technology will solve them. Its like candlemakers got to see the worlds first lightbulb for the first time, and are going "well, the glass is really fragile. And the electricity still has to come from somewhere". That's not wrong, those are all true points. But it seems crystal clear that despite the early shortcomings this technology will lead the future. Electric Cars seem the same way. There are edge cases they don't handle today, this is true. But electrics can already handle 80%+ of all driving needs today, and those remaining edge cases are being solved at a fairly rapid pace. In just the last few years, we've already seen the range rise substantially and the prices drop slightly. (Compare the 2011 Leaf with ~84 mile battery had a base MSRP of $34k (inflation adjusted to $38k in 2017 dollars), to the current 2017 Bolt with ~238 mile battery at a base MSRP of $36k). And of course, used vehicles are bringing the TCO down, so much so that even middle class people can easily afford electric cars. Older used Nissan Leaf cars often sell for as low as $9k. It seems obvious to me that this technology will continue to improve so that for those people who can't switch to electric today, they will certainly be able to in the near future.