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I'm happy for the author and wish him success. But the assumption that being a good developer can make you rich is misleading. Reading PG may create the impres

by nir 16y ago

I'm happy for the author and wish him success. But the assumption that being a good developer can make you rich is misleading. Reading PG may create the impression that building a successful company is an engineering-like process, deterministic and repeatable. It is not. It's a chaotic process that cannot be reliably planned. Thinking "Zuckerberg coded a PHP app, I can code a PHP app" is like thinking "That old lady bought a lottery ticket. I can buy a lottery ticket.." Building a smaller business that supports a few people is a different story (and a worthy goal unto itself). But that's not "sitting on a goldmine". EDIT: Just wanted to add I have huge respect for this guy, building a business while supporting a family. My beef, such as it is, is with simplistic picture of startups often painted in HN. The actual people giving it a go, you have to respect.

nuggien 16y ago
your lottery ticket analogy is excellent :)
kiba 16y ago
500 dollars a month business is better than nothing. It could even fund your kids' college fund.
- movingtohawaii 16y ago
  Right now I'm working on a little something of my own, and if I can reach 500$ a month that will almost cover half of my college tuition :) (state school)
  - jules 16y ago
    That would nearly cover all my expenses, including rent, food, and tuition.
- nir 16y ago
  As I wrote, a worthy goal unto itself but not "sitting on a goldmine".
  - kragen 16y ago
    Not idiomatically, but there are plenty of gold mining operations that produced less than half an ounce of gold per month on average.
joelmichael 16y ago
Your lottery ticket analogy suggests that Facebook was a success because of dumb luck.
- nir 16y ago
  If an analogy is the exact replicate of the subject, what's the use of it to begin with? The lottery card is an exaggeration, to make a point, which is that randomness plays a significant part in a startup's success, enough to make it almost impossible to predict or reproduce reliably.
  - kranner 16y ago
    Argument by analogy is what religious leaders and lawyers do to sway the masses into burning witches. This is a false analogy because it simplifies too much, in favour of strengthening your point, as the parent points out. It's a nifty analogy by itself and I enjoyed it, but I don't agree that it comes close to covering the main features of the case.
- necrecious 16y ago
  More like video poker, you have to know how to play the odds to eke out a living but making bank is luck.
donaq 16y ago
Well, actually, I think startup founders actually need this kind of slight delusion. In my more rational moments, I think my ideas suck, my plans are hollow and I'm going to be a wage slave for the rest of my life because of my obligations. I look at the mountain of obstacles ahead and think, "No way that can ever be moved. Learn to be content. Life is such." But the other voice inside me always chimes in later with, "But you're different. You can move mountains. That isn't even a mountain anyway. Put your will to it, and it will shatter. KEEP GOING." I am sure that there are people out there who can look at a mountain, see a molehill, and stomp it flat. I'm just not sure I am one of them. But I do think that if you want to start a business, you need the arrogance to at least act like you believe you are, because conventional wisdom says, to borrow your analogy, that you will lose at that lottery. So I think it does take some arrogance and self-delusion to believe that somehow you will beat that lottery and emerge a winner. If you don't, why the hell are you playing?
- 10ren 16y ago
  > why the hell are you playing? If you build something that solves a problem that people have (ie. is useful), and you arrange for people get to know about it somehow, then I think you can't help but be successful. But "successful" might not be a goldmine/lottery; it just might be making an adequate living, in a lifestyle business - like a fish n chip shop (as DHH denigrates). I think it's actually quite hard to fail at this, if you are aiming at creating something useful + communicating it. You might see this as being an independent software vendor where the total value you produce is comparable to an ordinary employee - except that you are free to formulate your own projects etc (which has +'s and -'s.) Another aspect is that if you create something useful... that's amazingly cool and valuable in itself. As for the lottery, win or lose, doesn't matter.
  - donaq 16y ago
    I actually agree with you about the definition of success. I would consider my next project a success if it somehow generates enough profit to allow me to dump the day job. However, that in itself is a lottery (the one I was referring to), since it is by no means certain that I will succeed. In this case, winning the lottery actually matters a lot to me personally, because it would give me the freedom to try and build more cool stuff.
deleted 16y ago
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by nir 16y ago

nuggien 16y ago

your lottery ticket analogy is excellent :)

kiba 16y ago

500 dollars a month business is better than nothing. It could even fund your kids' college fund.

movingtohawaii 16y ago
Right now I'm working on a little something of my own, and if I can reach 500$ a month that will almost cover half of my college tuition :) (state school)
- jules 16y ago
  That would nearly cover all my expenses, including rent, food, and tuition.
nir 16y ago
As I wrote, a worthy goal unto itself but not "sitting on a goldmine".
- kragen 16y ago
  Not idiomatically, but there are plenty of gold mining operations that produced less than half an ounce of gold per month on average.

joelmichael 16y ago

Your lottery ticket analogy suggests that Facebook was a success because of dumb luck.

nir 16y ago
If an analogy is the exact replicate of the subject, what's the use of it to begin with? The lottery card is an exaggeration, to make a point, which is that randomness plays a significant part in a startup's success, enough to make it almost impossible to predict or reproduce reliably.
- kranner 16y ago
  Argument by analogy is what religious leaders and lawyers do to sway the masses into burning witches. This is a false analogy because it simplifies too much, in favour of strengthening your point, as the parent points out. It's a nifty analogy by itself and I enjoyed it, but I don't agree that it comes close to covering the main features of the case.
necrecious 16y ago
More like video poker, you have to know how to play the odds to eke out a living but making bank is luck.

donaq 16y ago

Well, actually, I think startup founders actually need this kind of slight delusion. In my more rational moments, I think my ideas suck, my plans are hollow and I'm going to be a wage slave for the rest of my life because of my obligations. I look at the mountain of obstacles ahead and think, "No way that can ever be moved. Learn to be content. Life is such." But the other voice inside me always chimes in later with, "But you're different. You can move mountains. That isn't even a mountain anyway. Put your will to it, and it will shatter. KEEP GOING." I am sure that there are people out there who can look at a mountain, see a molehill, and stomp it flat. I'm just not sure I am one of them. But I do think that if you want to start a business, you need the arrogance to at least act like you believe you are, because conventional wisdom says, to borrow your analogy, that you will lose at that lottery. So I think it does take some arrogance and self-delusion to believe that somehow you will beat that lottery and emerge a winner. If you don't, why the hell are you playing?

10ren 16y ago
> why the hell are you playing? If you build something that solves a problem that people have (ie. is useful), and you arrange for people get to know about it somehow, then I think you can't help but be successful. But "successful" might not be a goldmine/lottery; it just might be making an adequate living, in a lifestyle business - like a fish n chip shop (as DHH denigrates). I think it's actually quite hard to fail at this, if you are aiming at creating something useful + communicating it. You might see this as being an independent software vendor where the total value you produce is comparable to an ordinary employee - except that you are free to formulate your own projects etc (which has +'s and -'s.) Another aspect is that if you create something useful... that's amazingly cool and valuable in itself. As for the lottery, win or lose, doesn't matter.
- donaq 16y ago
  I actually agree with you about the definition of success. I would consider my next project a success if it somehow generates enough profit to allow me to dump the day job. However, that in itself is a lottery (the one I was referring to), since it is by no means certain that I will succeed. In this case, winning the lottery actually matters a lot to me personally, because it would give me the freedom to try and build more cool stuff.

deleted 16y ago

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