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From that article, I got a very different impression (despite its clearly negative tone). The quote that really stood out to me was "How long does it take to b
by obastani 9y ago
From that article, I got a very different impression (despite its clearly negative tone). The quote that really stood out to me was
"How long does it take to build such a factory? From that other car company, you may have heard that car factories could be brought from no plans to mass production in two years, no time at all, or whatever is less. I ask Mr. Demeunyck how long the Luqiao plant took from start to finish, and he proudly tells me that it “took only five years. They do things fast in China”... "In Europe, or in other places with tight permitting, it would take a few years longer,” Demeunyck says. If anyone tells you he has picked no location, and secured no permits, but wants to have a new car plant up and running in two years, call an ambulance."
Apparently, what they are really arguing is not that Tesla is bad at production, but that Tesla is trying to do something nearly impossible. In this light, the problems Tesla faces are not because they lack the skills or expertise to deliver, but problems that any other car company would face if they were to do things on the schedule Tesla is trying to achieve.
Thus, Tesla is really just taking a huge gamble -- they have a chance to pull off something very impressive, even if they fall 6 months or a year behind schedule. And if they fail, they failed because they took on a challenge that was simply too hard for any company to achieve. To me, it really resembles the gamble that SpaceX took, which paid off very well in the long run. So while I think there's a real chance that Tesla will fail like all of their detractors believe, I think there is also a real chance that they will be wildly successful.
- Tiktaalik 9y ago>Apparently, what they are really arguing is not that Tesla is bad at production, but that Tesla is trying to do something nearly impossible. >And if they fail, they failed because they took on a challenge that was simply too hard for any company to achieve. From the way that Musk has recently embarrassed himself arguing with transit experts on twitter over the last few weeks I am increasingly believing in the possibility that Musk thinks he's the smartest guy in the room, is completely ignoring experts in the field, is trying to do something that actually is impossible, and he's doomed to failure.
- acover 9y agoHe's done the impossible how many times?
- avs733 9y ago0 Literally anything he has done is by definition not impossible. He has done at least 2 very difficult things but let's engage in a discourse grounded in reality please.
- acover 9y agoI mean things claimed to be impossible.
- dotancohen 9y agoThe impossible as defined by experts in the field? Most people count three. _Which_ three pretty much depends on the expertise of the person asking! Paypal, Rocketry and defense startup, hyperloop, electric cars, marketing, upturning the oil industry, etc. etc, not to mention his personal (non-business) achievements.
- XR0CSWV3h3kZWg 9y ago> hyperloop This is vaporware at this point.
- Robotbeat 9y agoRight. And looking at SpaceX also shows the futility of looking at initial production rate as indicative of long-term production rate. SpaceX got 2 launches off in 2010, zero in 2011. ULA and Ariane and Russia were laughing at them and mocking the idea of reuse and recovery. SpaceX launched 18 last year, all successfully, more than any other rocket. All recovery attempts succeeded, and several rockets were reflown. Their competitors have had to cut their workforce and are now feverishly trying to catch up with new designs (most of which are inadequate for even the current Falcon 9, let alone future rockets). The line between laughing stock and huge success is pretty small if you're in the exponential ramp-up phase.
- pweissbrod 9y agoWhat I gathered from this conversation was to bet on the longer term success of tesla but leave their first few generation mass-produced models to the die hard fans
- ryankupyn 9y agoSame here, though that is conditional on a friendly environment for financing to reach the longer term. And it also assumes that skill in the (relatively) low volume production of rockets can be transferred to mass production of cars.
- nabla9 9y agoTesla's bet with Model 3 has no room for long term if it fails. If Model 3 is not a success money runs out. There will be large changes in the ownership. Musk might sell Tesla to some other manufacturer etc.
- duhast 9y agoI couldn't find exact numbers but it seems like Must owns around 20% of Tesla. Some shares are locked down and secure around 1.6B of loans from Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. Not sure if Musk will be actually making any decisions here when things go south.
- 9y ago
- femto113 9y agoIt's worth noting that Tesla isn't starting from bare earth, they inherited a complete factory (NUMMI) that at its peak produced over 8000 cars per week. They've already adapted that factory to make two models, so adding a third model might well be expected to take far less time than siting, permitting, and constructing an entire factory from scratch as was done in Luqiao.