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I've come to see Tesla as being very bad at production lines. I've heard almost nothing but bad news about working conditions, safety, output, etc. Top it off w

I've come to see Tesla as being very bad at production lines. I've heard almost nothing but bad news about working conditions, safety, output, etc. Top it off with the massive firings that happened right as the Model 3 production was set to ramp up. However, I'm bullish, because these are solved problems that many other people have expertise in. It's easier for Tesla to find someone skilled in car manufacturing than it is for other manufacturers to build the brand demand that Tesla has. They have solved the hard problem, but failed the easy. And when they figure out how to build cars faster, the demand is there to meet them, which means that when they solve that easy problem, they will be sitting pretty.

rsynnott 9y ago
> However, I'm bullish, because these are solved problems that many other people have expertise in. Which raises the question, why didn't Tesla hire experts, like the company in the article? I suspect because Musk thinks his way is best, and, worse, hasn't yet realised that he's wrong. This would make me very concerned about Tesla's future. Ultimately, if Tesla goes bust, the brand will presumably be sold off, and someone who knows how to make cars will make Teslas, I suppose...
bdamm 9y ago
Is this really the "easy" problem? I've often wondered to what degree maneuverability or parts availability influences car maker's designs. If the design fundamentally requires parts that are single-source or difficulty to manufacture, as Tesla's design must be, then it's a difficult problem.
- Spooky23 9y ago
  Sounds like they are dicks to the blue collar guys, and are more worried about Union busting than making cars.
  - erikpukinskis 9y ago
    Tesla is at most spending 1% of their effort on union busting and 99% on building cars. You think they spend over half of their time on union busting?
- mehrdada 9y ago
  Yes, relatively speaking. The difficulty of this sort of stuff ultimately can hit the margin, so you usually are fine and have ample time if you have a relatively high margin (and no competitor in line of sight). For operationally tight businesses, this could prove to be disastrous.
Tiktaalik 9y ago
> However, I'm bullish, because these are solved problems that many other people have expertise in. All of Teslas woes make me bullish on companies like Toyota and GM that understand how to build cars. I'm increasingly questioning whether the electric drive train and the batteries are actual difficult and novel part about building an electric car. I think it's going to be easier for GM to find people that can build good electric engines than it is for Tesla to get upto speed on how to build their cars at GM scales.
- nihonde 9y ago
  Having lived in Nagoya, Japan after growing up in America, I think industrials is one of those areas where Japanese sensibilities and approaches to innovation vs incremental improvement are going to be tough to beat. Like everything in Japan, it’s not simple. My friends who run companies that supply Toyota and Mitsubishi in auto and aerospace absolutely worship the golden age of American industry in a way that I’m not sure many Americans still do. At the same time, they’re brilliant engineers that operate at extremely high standards, and are playing to win.
- danhak 9y ago
  Why, in your opinion, is GM’s Chevy Bolt still being outsold by the Tesla Model S? Also FYI “electric engines” are not a thing.
  - Sohcahtoa82 9y ago
    I'd say it's a failure of GM's marketing department and dealership salesmen that for some reason steer (no pun intended) people to ICEs. GM should be capitalizing on Tesla's failure to bring the Model 3 out. They could absolutely sell the message of "Why wait 18 months for an affordable electric car when you can drive one TODAY?" They could devour Model 3 reservations, but for some reason are choosing not to.
    - abledon 9y ago
      The people who reserved Teslas would probably wretch driving a GM. That company doesn’t belong in their psyche
nilkn 9y ago
> It's easier for Tesla to find someone skilled in car manufacturing than it is for other manufacturers to build the brand demand that Tesla has. They have solved the hard problem, but failed the easy. But Mercedes, Audi, BMW, etc., have an incredible amount of brand demand too. They'd have even more if they cut out their entry-level cars and only sold flagships like Tesla has done up to this point. The reality is building a desirable car brand is not that hard. Just make absurdly expensive cars that few people can own and you're halfway there. Then slowly introduce more affordable models.
- Shivetya 9y ago
  Not only do they have brand demand, when they do enter the same markets as Tesla with their own EV they will have people flocking to them. far too many people keep hyping numbers of Tesla's preorders or even sales of S & X while completely ignoring they don't even come close to equaling single lines of some other brands who do this year in year out
- princeb 9y ago
  BMW in particular i'm looking at quite closely. Unlike MB and Audi, BMW are invested in electric tech and have already been for a while with the i3 (both full and hybrid trims) and also the X series hybrid SUVs. So for them battery tech is a "solved problem". They already have a production capacity of 2.5m/yr and likely will keep the same capacity in the gas-electric transition. > Just make absurdly expensive cars that few people can own and you're halfway there. Not that the GTR was absurdly expensive, but i don't think that car changed the perception of Nissan much.
  - fyfy18 9y ago
    Other than the i3, which has a 125 mile range, all of BMWs other vehicles are hybrid rather than true EVs. Yes that’s probably the way the market will go (Toyota offer a hybrid option on nearly every model now), but it’s not really the same as a true EV like Tesla. Also both Audi and MB have hybrid and full EVs (well VW who own Audi, and share the same platforms).
  - propogandist 9y ago
maxxxxx 9y ago
Actually building production lines and supply lines is a very difficult problem that needs a lot of experience, fine tuning and time. It's like building a moderately complex software. Getting most features in is relatively quick. But then debugging all issues is very slow and tedious and just needs a lot of time. It's definitely not their easy problem.
lev99 9y ago
> It's easier for Tesla to find someone skilled in car manufacturing than it is for other manufacturers to build the brand demand that Tesla has. If supply was not a problem Tesla would still not sell as many automobiles as other brands. Ford sold something like 5 million automobiles in 2016. The Model 3 has 1/10 that in preorders. Tesla has a great brand in EVs, and Tesla has great market growth, but it has to double several more times until it reaches the established demand other car companies enjoy. I'm bearish on Tesla. Everyone ships more units then Tesla. Japanese companies are outselling Tesla on EV units. German companies are 1-3 years behind on luxury EV units in terms of quality. I'm hedging my bet by considering the gigafactory. If we see 5 gigafacotries by 2022 they'll have a significant position in the entire CE & EV industry for decades.
- krrrh 9y ago
  The rest of the world is also building battery manufacturing. [1]. Even Tesla’s plant Is jointly run by Panasonic. https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1112878_china-to-build-many-gigafactories-worth-of-electric-car-battery-plants https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1112878_china-to-build-...
- erikpukinskis 9y ago
  The Model 3 hasn’t even been reviewed yet. A lot of people won’t buy a product until they’ve seen it deliver on its promises and it is available to buy immediately. You can’t compare demand for their offering to Ford’s until it’s actually... you know... offered. Model 3 is still basically in a Beta release.

rsynnott 9y ago

> However, I'm bullish, because these are solved problems that many other people have expertise in. Which raises the question, why didn't Tesla hire experts, like the company in the article? I suspect because Musk thinks his way is best, and, worse, hasn't yet realised that he's wrong. This would make me very concerned about Tesla's future. Ultimately, if Tesla goes bust, the brand will presumably be sold off, and someone who knows how to make cars will make Teslas, I suppose...

bdamm 9y ago

Is this really the "easy" problem? I've often wondered to what degree maneuverability or parts availability influences car maker's designs. If the design fundamentally requires parts that are single-source or difficulty to manufacture, as Tesla's design must be, then it's a difficult problem.

Spooky23 9y ago
Sounds like they are dicks to the blue collar guys, and are more worried about Union busting than making cars.
- erikpukinskis 9y ago
  Tesla is at most spending 1% of their effort on union busting and 99% on building cars. You think they spend over half of their time on union busting?
mehrdada 9y ago
Yes, relatively speaking. The difficulty of this sort of stuff ultimately can hit the margin, so you usually are fine and have ample time if you have a relatively high margin (and no competitor in line of sight). For operationally tight businesses, this could prove to be disastrous.

Tiktaalik 9y ago

> However, I'm bullish, because these are solved problems that many other people have expertise in. All of Teslas woes make me bullish on companies like Toyota and GM that understand how to build cars. I'm increasingly questioning whether the electric drive train and the batteries are actual difficult and novel part about building an electric car. I think it's going to be easier for GM to find people that can build good electric engines than it is for Tesla to get upto speed on how to build their cars at GM scales.

nihonde 9y ago
Having lived in Nagoya, Japan after growing up in America, I think industrials is one of those areas where Japanese sensibilities and approaches to innovation vs incremental improvement are going to be tough to beat. Like everything in Japan, it’s not simple. My friends who run companies that supply Toyota and Mitsubishi in auto and aerospace absolutely worship the golden age of American industry in a way that I’m not sure many Americans still do. At the same time, they’re brilliant engineers that operate at extremely high standards, and are playing to win.
danhak 9y ago
Why, in your opinion, is GM’s Chevy Bolt still being outsold by the Tesla Model S? Also FYI “electric engines” are not a thing.
- Sohcahtoa82 9y ago
  I'd say it's a failure of GM's marketing department and dealership salesmen that for some reason steer (no pun intended) people to ICEs. GM should be capitalizing on Tesla's failure to bring the Model 3 out. They could absolutely sell the message of "Why wait 18 months for an affordable electric car when you can drive one TODAY?" They could devour Model 3 reservations, but for some reason are choosing not to.
  - abledon 9y ago
    The people who reserved Teslas would probably wretch driving a GM. That company doesn’t belong in their psyche

nilkn 9y ago

> It's easier for Tesla to find someone skilled in car manufacturing than it is for other manufacturers to build the brand demand that Tesla has. They have solved the hard problem, but failed the easy. But Mercedes, Audi, BMW, etc., have an incredible amount of brand demand too. They'd have even more if they cut out their entry-level cars and only sold flagships like Tesla has done up to this point. The reality is building a desirable car brand is not that hard. Just make absurdly expensive cars that few people can own and you're halfway there. Then slowly introduce more affordable models.

Shivetya 9y ago
Not only do they have brand demand, when they do enter the same markets as Tesla with their own EV they will have people flocking to them. far too many people keep hyping numbers of Tesla's preorders or even sales of S & X while completely ignoring they don't even come close to equaling single lines of some other brands who do this year in year out
princeb 9y ago
BMW in particular i'm looking at quite closely. Unlike MB and Audi, BMW are invested in electric tech and have already been for a while with the i3 (both full and hybrid trims) and also the X series hybrid SUVs. So for them battery tech is a "solved problem". They already have a production capacity of 2.5m/yr and likely will keep the same capacity in the gas-electric transition. > Just make absurdly expensive cars that few people can own and you're halfway there. Not that the GTR was absurdly expensive, but i don't think that car changed the perception of Nissan much.
- fyfy18 9y ago
  Other than the i3, which has a 125 mile range, all of BMWs other vehicles are hybrid rather than true EVs. Yes that’s probably the way the market will go (Toyota offer a hybrid option on nearly every model now), but it’s not really the same as a true EV like Tesla. Also both Audi and MB have hybrid and full EVs (well VW who own Audi, and share the same platforms).
- propogandist 9y ago

maxxxxx 9y ago

Actually building production lines and supply lines is a very difficult problem that needs a lot of experience, fine tuning and time. It's like building a moderately complex software. Getting most features in is relatively quick. But then debugging all issues is very slow and tedious and just needs a lot of time. It's definitely not their easy problem.

lev99 9y ago

> It's easier for Tesla to find someone skilled in car manufacturing than it is for other manufacturers to build the brand demand that Tesla has. If supply was not a problem Tesla would still not sell as many automobiles as other brands. Ford sold something like 5 million automobiles in 2016. The Model 3 has 1/10 that in preorders. Tesla has a great brand in EVs, and Tesla has great market growth, but it has to double several more times until it reaches the established demand other car companies enjoy. I'm bearish on Tesla. Everyone ships more units then Tesla. Japanese companies are outselling Tesla on EV units. German companies are 1-3 years behind on luxury EV units in terms of quality. I'm hedging my bet by considering the gigafactory. If we see 5 gigafacotries by 2022 they'll have a significant position in the entire CE & EV industry for decades.

krrrh 9y ago
The rest of the world is also building battery manufacturing. [1]. Even Tesla’s plant Is jointly run by Panasonic. https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1112878_china-to-build-many-gigafactories-worth-of-electric-car-battery-plants https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1112878_china-to-build-...
erikpukinskis 9y ago
The Model 3 hasn’t even been reviewed yet. A lot of people won’t buy a product until they’ve seen it deliver on its promises and it is available to buy immediately. You can’t compare demand for their offering to Ford’s until it’s actually... you know... offered. Model 3 is still basically in a Beta release.