7 ms·

Pretty much, yeah. A bunch of my friends are traders, and it seems that the consensus right now is that as far as the stock market is concerned, nobody knows w

Pretty much, yeah. A bunch of my friends are traders, and it seems that the consensus right now is that as far as the stock market is concerned, nobody knows where this is going (either way), and is scared to take any real position (that's why volatility has been up lately, volumes are down (and not just because it's August). My take is that we're most likely headed for a period of Japan-like stagnation. There are huge structural employment issues in developed countries to take care of, properties are likely very much underwater for many homeowners that do still have jobs in the US, and governments are taking the knee-jerk reaction to the stimulus needed in 08/09 by introducing austerity measures, which will only serve to slow the economy further than it is at the moment. The debt levels in developed economies are still waaay too high, but there is a very real risk of taking the crutches away before the economy can walk again (hence Bernanke returning to easing measures: he sees the writing on the wall). So, while governments worldwide go about trying to tackle the debt problem, growth will slow and there will be little job creation in many sectors. But the real change has to come from the people learning that, fundamentally, they can only spend what they earn, and that debt is not a bottomless pit.

mkr-hn 16y ago
I've been thinking the same thing. It's why I don't expect to be able to find my first job any time soon--I'm 26 with an AAS degree and no work experience in a terrible economy. I've got an advantage since I have parents with a big house that's above water. My brother and his fiance are going to ride out some portion of it here with us (they both have good, stable jobs). I'm going to take this opportunity to explore the area around Atlanta (where I live) hoping to run in to some kind of opportunity. I've also got the plan B of using this stable spot to consider cheap to create startups that don't make a lot of money, but do provide a small profit. With minimal (or no) expenses, a tiny profit can go a long way. I think anyone who is in a relatively stable position needs to do what I'm doing and consider small entrepreneurial steps. It may put them in a better place, and it has the potential to take off and create economic activity, which could end the recession sooner. Even if all you do is start a blog in your field of knowledge, you keep your skills sharp, improve them through interaction, and possibly give someone else the spark they needed to do something that will create jobs.
- phjohnst 16y ago
  Exactly! I think that there is a rather substantial silver lining to major change, in that it forces people that would otherwise not have to/not have the guts to, go out and do what they want, like start a company or follow a passion (hopefully not mutually exclusive). That is ultimately where growth is going to come from. Assuming relative stability, the cost of trying something new falls dramatically in bad times.
- maigret 16y ago
  Have you considered going to any country where the employment situation is better than in the US? Germany for example will be searching many skilled employees due to an aging workforce. Plus you get state-financed retirement, 6 weeks of holidays per year, that you can even extend by doing overtime the rest of the time. Don't know how hard it is to get a work visa though for US citizens.
  - mkr-hn 16y ago
    It costs money to get there, and money to stay while looking for work. And this economy is so bad that even highly qualified people are out of work, so it's not likely I could get a company to fly me over there for an interview. I've been looking everywhere for work in the year since graduation with nothing more than an interview at Target (the other candidates had retail experience, so I didn't get it), so starting my own cheap to run web business is starting to seem like the only way I can build a resume.
    - maigret 16y ago
      Well Germany right now has no big unemployment problem. The statistics now are better than in 2005. I understand it's costly, and even more it's a hard step, but don't think everything is harder elsewhere. I think Americans in Europe can be pretty successful, I have seen a few ones making their way here. In every case good luck in your job search or startup creation!
  - arghnoname 16y ago
    Generally, probably harder than getting a job domestically. With rare exceptions, this is probably doubly true if you don't speak the native tongue. Many counties have fluency add 'points' for visa applications, some don't, and some merely require enrolling in language classes once there. A lot of technology companies in various European countries are filled with people capable of speaking English (for obvious reasons) and some with many international hires (like Opera of Norway) claim to operate their business in English full time. Still, some language capability would make it a lot easier to make sense of what the regulations are on immigration, read the job ads, etc, and higher education (like a masters degree) is helpful. Many of the programs in wealthier Europe require a demonstration that the skills sought are not easily found domestically. More education is not a perfect proxy, but is one thing which is often used (especially for the less experienced).
eru 16y ago
Germany seems to be doing fine, and never had a problem with loans (at least not with loans to domestic borrowers). Let's see how they fare. I guess as long as the Chinese are buying capital equipment, Germany will be fine.
- beza1e1 16y ago
  Germany does well because China, India, South Korea and Brasilia are not that badly affected by the US crisis. They are still buying machines and cars. It is not that the german government is doing anything better than others. We are just lucky that our economy is based on exporting cars.
  - eru 16y ago
    Yes. Also the Germans at least tried to balance their budget in the boom years. Britain ran a huge deficit even at the height of the bubble.
  - maigret 16y ago
    Not only. It's not the "current government" action, but Germany has some law to finance shorter work time during crises. Thus companies can start over now that contracts are coming in with almost pre-crisis workforce and skills. America can't do that that way with all the layoffs. Also, while the car industry is very important in Germany, a good part of the exports to China and other growing countries are made on big, complex machines and infrastructure-building products.
    - eru 16y ago
      On the other hand, the easier layoffs in America make firms more likely to hire workers in the first place. (At least that's what the theory says.) Germany has lots of problems with the long term unemployed. (Also migrants and women should be better utilized in the workforce.)
      - maigret 16y ago
        Yes, I really agree with that - though I suppose many (if not most) countries also suffer the second problem.
fauigerzigerk 16y ago
Well, so much for the "Too many people are too bullish" item. People are not bullish and all of this has been discussed for weeks now. That doesn't preclude another panic of course, but I think it would take a significant outside event to cause it. A slightly worsening macro picture is not going to do it considering bond yields are so low. People are going to seek returns in the stock market.

mkr-hn 16y ago

I've been thinking the same thing. It's why I don't expect to be able to find my first job any time soon--I'm 26 with an AAS degree and no work experience in a terrible economy. I've got an advantage since I have parents with a big house that's above water. My brother and his fiance are going to ride out some portion of it here with us (they both have good, stable jobs). I'm going to take this opportunity to explore the area around Atlanta (where I live) hoping to run in to some kind of opportunity. I've also got the plan B of using this stable spot to consider cheap to create startups that don't make a lot of money, but do provide a small profit. With minimal (or no) expenses, a tiny profit can go a long way. I think anyone who is in a relatively stable position needs to do what I'm doing and consider small entrepreneurial steps. It may put them in a better place, and it has the potential to take off and create economic activity, which could end the recession sooner. Even if all you do is start a blog in your field of knowledge, you keep your skills sharp, improve them through interaction, and possibly give someone else the spark they needed to do something that will create jobs.

phjohnst 16y ago
Exactly! I think that there is a rather substantial silver lining to major change, in that it forces people that would otherwise not have to/not have the guts to, go out and do what they want, like start a company or follow a passion (hopefully not mutually exclusive). That is ultimately where growth is going to come from. Assuming relative stability, the cost of trying something new falls dramatically in bad times.
maigret 16y ago
Have you considered going to any country where the employment situation is better than in the US? Germany for example will be searching many skilled employees due to an aging workforce. Plus you get state-financed retirement, 6 weeks of holidays per year, that you can even extend by doing overtime the rest of the time. Don't know how hard it is to get a work visa though for US citizens.
- mkr-hn 16y ago
  It costs money to get there, and money to stay while looking for work. And this economy is so bad that even highly qualified people are out of work, so it's not likely I could get a company to fly me over there for an interview. I've been looking everywhere for work in the year since graduation with nothing more than an interview at Target (the other candidates had retail experience, so I didn't get it), so starting my own cheap to run web business is starting to seem like the only way I can build a resume.
  - maigret 16y ago
    Well Germany right now has no big unemployment problem. The statistics now are better than in 2005. I understand it's costly, and even more it's a hard step, but don't think everything is harder elsewhere. I think Americans in Europe can be pretty successful, I have seen a few ones making their way here. In every case good luck in your job search or startup creation!
- arghnoname 16y ago
  Generally, probably harder than getting a job domestically. With rare exceptions, this is probably doubly true if you don't speak the native tongue. Many counties have fluency add 'points' for visa applications, some don't, and some merely require enrolling in language classes once there. A lot of technology companies in various European countries are filled with people capable of speaking English (for obvious reasons) and some with many international hires (like Opera of Norway) claim to operate their business in English full time. Still, some language capability would make it a lot easier to make sense of what the regulations are on immigration, read the job ads, etc, and higher education (like a masters degree) is helpful. Many of the programs in wealthier Europe require a demonstration that the skills sought are not easily found domestically. More education is not a perfect proxy, but is one thing which is often used (especially for the less experienced).

eru 16y ago

Germany seems to be doing fine, and never had a problem with loans (at least not with loans to domestic borrowers). Let's see how they fare. I guess as long as the Chinese are buying capital equipment, Germany will be fine.

beza1e1 16y ago
Germany does well because China, India, South Korea and Brasilia are not that badly affected by the US crisis. They are still buying machines and cars. It is not that the german government is doing anything better than others. We are just lucky that our economy is based on exporting cars.
- eru 16y ago
  Yes. Also the Germans at least tried to balance their budget in the boom years. Britain ran a huge deficit even at the height of the bubble.
- maigret 16y ago
  Not only. It's not the "current government" action, but Germany has some law to finance shorter work time during crises. Thus companies can start over now that contracts are coming in with almost pre-crisis workforce and skills. America can't do that that way with all the layoffs. Also, while the car industry is very important in Germany, a good part of the exports to China and other growing countries are made on big, complex machines and infrastructure-building products.
  - eru 16y ago
    On the other hand, the easier layoffs in America make firms more likely to hire workers in the first place. (At least that's what the theory says.) Germany has lots of problems with the long term unemployed. (Also migrants and women should be better utilized in the workforce.)
    - maigret 16y ago
      Yes, I really agree with that - though I suppose many (if not most) countries also suffer the second problem.

fauigerzigerk 16y ago

Well, so much for the "Too many people are too bullish" item. People are not bullish and all of this has been discussed for weeks now. That doesn't preclude another panic of course, but I think it would take a significant outside event to cause it. A slightly worsening macro picture is not going to do it considering bond yields are so low. People are going to seek returns in the stock market.