3 ms·

Your math is wrong, such a program would cost $3.6 trillion per year

by mobilefriendly 9y ago

philwelch 9y ago
Even furthering my point! An entire Mars program could be done for a tenth of that!
- T2_t2 9y ago
  That's not really the cost. The cost is $12,000 * 300 million minus income taxes raised. Most plans have a slight increase in personal income tax attached, that leads to a breakeven at around $36K -> $40K. And the comparative cost in the budget is the cost of the program minus all existing welfare programs this replaces. $1,145 billion was the guesstimate for welfare, so for the USA at $3.5 trillion, it would be a cost of $2 trillion. I wonder too if there aren't more cuts than just welfare that can be made as a flow on of this. The proposal I saw from a conservative economist was $13K, with $3k reserved for healthcare. That would replace a lot of the medical schemes that exist, which many states likely pay for as well. Still, it is gonna be hella expensive for the first country that does it at scale.
  - philwelch 9y ago
    You could raise income taxes regardless, though. And I don’t know how much welfare you would be able to eliminate, since the bulk of those costs are Medicare (which you would have to maintain) and Social Security (which you would also have to maintain but might offset UBI). Regardless, you’re still introducing a large amount of net new spending—an amount that could be productively invested in infrastructure, research, and other productive projects.
  - ataturk 9y ago
    You're just looking at numbers--that's a mistake. The real "cost" is in the unmeasurable factors of how such a policy would change social behavior. For example, if I'm guaranteed $1K/month, I could take that and, using the other passive income I have, quit my job and never work again. I'm 44, it would be a dream come true. Part of me says "bring it on" but the adult part of me realizes that you can't run a nation where everyone wants to retire early and produce nothing or next to nothing. I reminds me of Firefly and planet Miranda where everyone was drugged for "their own good" but they all just laid down and died!

Your math is wrong, such a program would cost $3.6 trillion per year

philwelch 9y ago

Even furthering my point! An entire Mars program could be done for a tenth of that!

T2_t2 9y ago
That's not really the cost. The cost is $12,000 * 300 million minus income taxes raised. Most plans have a slight increase in personal income tax attached, that leads to a breakeven at around $36K -> $40K. And the comparative cost in the budget is the cost of the program minus all existing welfare programs this replaces. $1,145 billion was the guesstimate for welfare, so for the USA at $3.5 trillion, it would be a cost of $2 trillion. I wonder too if there aren't more cuts than just welfare that can be made as a flow on of this. The proposal I saw from a conservative economist was $13K, with $3k reserved for healthcare. That would replace a lot of the medical schemes that exist, which many states likely pay for as well. Still, it is gonna be hella expensive for the first country that does it at scale.
- philwelch 9y ago
  You could raise income taxes regardless, though. And I don’t know how much welfare you would be able to eliminate, since the bulk of those costs are Medicare (which you would have to maintain) and Social Security (which you would also have to maintain but might offset UBI). Regardless, you’re still introducing a large amount of net new spending—an amount that could be productively invested in infrastructure, research, and other productive projects.
- ataturk 9y ago
  You're just looking at numbers--that's a mistake. The real "cost" is in the unmeasurable factors of how such a policy would change social behavior. For example, if I'm guaranteed $1K/month, I could take that and, using the other passive income I have, quit my job and never work again. I'm 44, it would be a dream come true. Part of me says "bring it on" but the adult part of me realizes that you can't run a nation where everyone wants to retire early and produce nothing or next to nothing. I reminds me of Firefly and planet Miranda where everyone was drugged for "their own good" but they all just laid down and died!