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I’m expecting drone-hunting drones. Flying around with tiny shotguns or maybe catch nets.

by DenisM 9y ago

harryf 9y ago
The US Airforce is experimenting with using Falcons - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-05/the-military-is-using-falcons-to-build-a-drone-killer https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-05/the-milit... Meanwhile the Police in Holland have abandoned an attempt to use Sea Eagles https://www.google.ch/amp/s/www.theverge.com/platform/amp/2017/12/12/16767000/police-netherlands-eagles-rogue-drones https://www.google.ch/amp/s/www.theverge.com/platform/amp/20...
vidarh 9y ago
The challenge is the toys are getting so cheap, that it is likely to become highly difficult to do this for a committed adversary. E.g. imagine just overcoming the shotgun or net drones by simply sending in a thousand (or however many) toy drones to deplete your supply of nets first. Of course it'd set off all kind of alarms, but that may in itself make it worth it: How many people can you afford to keep on high alert for $12 [1] disposable drones in case one of them turns out to be something that actually matters. The potential disruptive effect of just toys is becoming massive. Then multiply it by a high factor if adversaries in that swarm of toys hide e.g. a handful with explosives, or a handful of "proper" surveillance drones, so that the cost of not taking out every single one (or even of taking one out in the wrong location) becomes prohibitive. [1] https://www.alibaba.com/product-detail/2-4G-6-Axis-RC-Drone_60693001101.html https://www.alibaba.com/product-detail/2-4G-6-Axis-RC-Drone_... - $12 if you order large enough volumes; of course these would not do it - for starters, you'd have no chance to control all of them, and they could be disrupted simply by transmitting enough noise at 2.4GHz. But replace the control of it with some semi-randomized flocking on all of the disposable ones, and cause chaos.
- DenisM 9y ago
  It cuts both ways though - as attackers can buy more drones for $$ so do the defenders. Superior budget wins every time.
  - vidarh 9y ago
    The problem, though, is that a $12 toy drone won't be able to reliably stop even another $12 toy drone, and you need to be able to stop something much bigger and more sophisticated. Because you won't know if what's coming is harmful or a major security threat. So you might very well look at a $100k drone designed to take out $10k threats being used against a $12 toy because the only way of being sure is to take it out. Now suddenly an adversary able to send 1000x$12 drones for $12k materials cost could conceivably force you to spend $100m on drones for a single facility. The problem with that being that your adversary gets to decide where to attack. That's the nightmare of this: Highly mobile, extremely cheap "attacks" that can be used to massively drive up the needed defense efforts on the off chance that somewhere in a swarm of a 1000 the adversary has hidden a $10k investment in a flying bomb. A superior budget may win, but this can drive up the budget advantage needed before you have an advantage.
    - DenisM 9y ago
      Aren’t you exaggerating the cost difference? I’m pretty sure a $10,000 drone can hunt down a $12 drone, and do it more than once. To make it work you need size, speed, radar / sonar, a computer, and a weapon for that sort of drone. Civilian DSLR-carrying drones are half-way there, they have the size, the speed, and the weight capacity. Don’t know the size/weight of the sonar though. Besides cheap drones have low range and low speed, it will be hard for the perp to get away, or even get close enough in the first place. Non-state actors are very limited in budget. They might catch some targets off-guard, but it’s not a game changer.
      - DenisM 9y ago
        There you go, a small radar. https://techcrunch.com/2017/05/12/echodynes-pocket-sized-radar-may-be-the-next-must-have-tech-for-drones-and-drone-hunters/ https://techcrunch.com/2017/05/12/echodynes-pocket-sized-rad... the price is inflated I’m sure. There is also a small radar inside the hellfire missile, but I don’t know the weight. I doubt it’s too heavy. And hellfire are $100k a pop, which is why I think radars shouldn’t be too expensive.
      - 9y ago

I’m expecting drone-hunting drones. Flying around with tiny shotguns or maybe catch nets.

by DenisM 9y ago

I’m expecting drone-hunting drones. Flying around with tiny shotguns or maybe catch nets.

The US Airforce is experimenting with using Falcons - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-05/the-military-is-using-falcons-to-build-a-drone-killer https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-05/the-milit... Meanwhile the Police in Holland have abandoned an attempt to use Sea Eagles https://www.google.ch/amp/s/www.theverge.com/platform/amp/2017/12/12/16767000/police-netherlands-eagles-rogue-drones https://www.google.ch/amp/s/www.theverge.com/platform/amp/20...

vidarh 9y ago

The challenge is the toys are getting so cheap, that it is likely to become highly difficult to do this for a committed adversary. E.g. imagine just overcoming the shotgun or net drones by simply sending in a thousand (or however many) toy drones to deplete your supply of nets first. Of course it'd set off all kind of alarms, but that may in itself make it worth it: How many people can you afford to keep on high alert for $12 [1] disposable drones in case one of them turns out to be something that actually matters. The potential disruptive effect of just toys is becoming massive. Then multiply it by a high factor if adversaries in that swarm of toys hide e.g. a handful with explosives, or a handful of "proper" surveillance drones, so that the cost of not taking out every single one (or even of taking one out in the wrong location) becomes prohibitive. [1] https://www.alibaba.com/product-detail/2-4G-6-Axis-RC-Drone_60693001101.html https://www.alibaba.com/product-detail/2-4G-6-Axis-RC-Drone_... - $12 if you order large enough volumes; of course these would not do it - for starters, you'd have no chance to control all of them, and they could be disrupted simply by transmitting enough noise at 2.4GHz. But replace the control of it with some semi-randomized flocking on all of the disposable ones, and cause chaos.

DenisM 9y ago
It cuts both ways though - as attackers can buy more drones for $$ so do the defenders. Superior budget wins every time.
- vidarh 9y ago
  The problem, though, is that a $12 toy drone won't be able to reliably stop even another $12 toy drone, and you need to be able to stop something much bigger and more sophisticated. Because you won't know if what's coming is harmful or a major security threat. So you might very well look at a $100k drone designed to take out $10k threats being used against a $12 toy because the only way of being sure is to take it out. Now suddenly an adversary able to send 1000x$12 drones for $12k materials cost could conceivably force you to spend $100m on drones for a single facility. The problem with that being that your adversary gets to decide where to attack. That's the nightmare of this: Highly mobile, extremely cheap "attacks" that can be used to massively drive up the needed defense efforts on the off chance that somewhere in a swarm of a 1000 the adversary has hidden a $10k investment in a flying bomb. A superior budget may win, but this can drive up the budget advantage needed before you have an advantage.
  - DenisM 9y ago
    Aren’t you exaggerating the cost difference? I’m pretty sure a $10,000 drone can hunt down a $12 drone, and do it more than once. To make it work you need size, speed, radar / sonar, a computer, and a weapon for that sort of drone. Civilian DSLR-carrying drones are half-way there, they have the size, the speed, and the weight capacity. Don’t know the size/weight of the sonar though. Besides cheap drones have low range and low speed, it will be hard for the perp to get away, or even get close enough in the first place. Non-state actors are very limited in budget. They might catch some targets off-guard, but it’s not a game changer.
    - DenisM 9y ago
      There you go, a small radar. https://techcrunch.com/2017/05/12/echodynes-pocket-sized-radar-may-be-the-next-must-have-tech-for-drones-and-drone-hunters/ https://techcrunch.com/2017/05/12/echodynes-pocket-sized-rad... the price is inflated I’m sure. There is also a small radar inside the hellfire missile, but I don’t know the weight. I doubt it’s too heavy. And hellfire are $100k a pop, which is why I think radars shouldn’t be too expensive.
    - 9y ago