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Soon their biggest problem won't even be "making a good EV", because they all seem to have started working on EV platforms from scratch - which, let's not kid o
by mtgx 9y ago
Soon their biggest problem won't even be "making a good EV", because they all seem to have started working on EV platforms from scratch - which, let's not kid ourselves - they would've never done if not for Tesla. They would've just dragged their feet re-purposing old ICE cars into EVs, which has significant drawbacks in terms of overall battery efficiency as well as maximum range.
So now that this is (almost) out of the way, their biggest problem will be making batteries fast enough. I predict that once there are enough models on the market and the prices are much more competitive compared to ICE cars, which should happen around 2022, there will be an explosion in demand. And it's going to take them off-guard because they won't have enough battery supply planned out for the short 1-2 year term. They'll have to "drop everything" and start building battery factories like crazy. I'm talking a total demand of close to 1 TWh year, by 2025, for EVs alone (which should be maybe around 15-20 million EVs a year, globally).
The only one that will sale through smoothly will be Tesla at that point, which by 2023 will likely have a second gigafactory close to finished, and even Tesla may struggle a bit to keep up with the demand, because they'll have not only their customers, but the customers of all the other carmakers that failed to supply enough EVs to their loyal base.
Chinese manufacturers may also have a better time, because China is already seeing an explosion in EV demand, backed by the government, so they will have a much better feel for the EV demand by then.
Meanwhile, most European and Japanese carmakers will be left wondering why no one is coming to check out their latest "breakthrough in diesel technology" at trade shows anymore.