3 ms·
Of course there were better investments, but you are cherry-picking. Apple in 1995 wasn't exactly an obvious stock to buy. At that time, Apple was thought to be
by Al-Khwarizmi 9y ago
Of course there were better investments, but you are cherry-picking. Apple in 1995 wasn't exactly an obvious stock to buy. At that time, Apple was thought to be practically dead. How many people had the vision (or rather the luck) to pick a stock providing more than 1300% return?
A realistic benchmark would be S&P500, and that would give you a 150% return.
- Anderkent 9y agoWell, Magic cards is cherry-picking too. Not only do you have to guess which cards will be valuable later, you're cherry-picking at the moment where you single out Magic cards, from all possible collectibles.
- gnicholas 9y agoYes, but GP is also cherry-picking cards. Black Lotus was a valuable card back then, but that doesn't make it a good investment. If they had printed other cards with similar powers, for example, it wouldn't be worth as much as it is. A better comparison would be unopened packs of Magic cards vs the S&P. I don't know how that comes out though.
- emodendroket 9y agoProbably much worse; who wants old lands or cards that were never particularly good?
- gnicholas 9y agoYes, but unopened packs hold the allure of possibility. The price fetched wouldn't be based on the certainty of lands, but on the possibility of the uncommon or rare cards that could be inside.
- emodendroket 9y agoThe scenario I envisioned was that these things were opened before being sold; if we're talking about unopened ones the answer should be relatively easy to find.
- logfromblammo 9y agoYou could sell each pack for the expected value of opening it, which includes a small chance at some some cards that demand high prices on the singles market. Of course, this presumes the seller has no way of determining the card content of an unopened pack, in which case the only packs that would remain unopened would have cards worth less than the expected value. I don't think I could trust any seller to not somehow "peek" inside an apparently factory-sealed pack. I'd probably try a pinhole fiber-optic borescope, poke it through a not-very-noticeable spot, and try to identify the rare card, if I had any.
- BoorishBears 9y agoOld packs tended to be partially transparent if held “just the right way”, which also puts a slight damper on their prices.
- kaycebasques 9y agoAppealing to gambling psychology, in other words ;)
- Al-Khwarizmi 9y agoI was taking Black Lotus as obvious because it has been universally regarded as the best Magic card since the early days of Magic. But yes, you're right, the risk you mention existed. They could very well have reprinted the card during these years (it would be a really bad move, but you never know who's going to buy a company and gut it). So it's hard to determine what's a fair comparison.
- jldugger 9y agoThere's also the risk that one of the myraid CCGs replaces MtG. Or in 1995, the risk that CCGs fade in general.
- gjvc 9y agonot to carp, but Apple in 1998 (upon the return of Steve Jobs) is the standard "benchmark". This makes one an event-driven investor. I remember thinking to myself "buy Apple stock" at that time before I really knew what that meant :-)