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Bitcoin is going to grow to 50.000 - 100.000 USD within the next year: * The limit of coins will increase the value of each individual coin (deflation), while

by wsc981 9y ago

Bitcoin is going to grow to 50.000 - 100.000 USD within the next year: * The limit of coins will increase the value of each individual coin (deflation), while the USD's value will still inflate. For miners this doesn't have to be a problem in the long term, since money can still be earned on processing transactions. * The problems with high transaction fees and slow transaction times will hopefully be solved with the Lightning Network. I know people have been working on the Lightning Network for a long time, but I truly believe it will be introduced for Bitcoin in 2018, because there is a huge need. If Bitcoin will not adopt the Lightning Network by 2018, perhaps some other crypto currency could take over as the number 1 crypto. * Lost coins will push the value of the existing coins higher. Do I think block-chain will take over? I do believe so. We should take a very good look at Asia, I believe the most important developments regarding blockchain tech will happen over there. One of the projects that is of great interest to me (I've bought some coins) is Omise GO. Omise GO could give banking capabilities to people without needing them to sign up to bank accounts. It means people without bank accounts might be able to purchase products over the internet using their Omise GO wallets. It also means people can receive money easily without needing a bank account. Asia still has a lot of people without bank accounts. Of course many other interesting applications with block chain tech are developed as well. For example software to track inventory for shipping companies like Maersk. If some important economy destabilises, look for more common people move into crypto as trust into central banks erode as has been seen already in e.g. Venezuela and Zimbabwe. I believe this could happen in the Eurozone as I believe the Eurozone's economy is still very weak and a small event could evolve into a big crisis over there. Look for increased efficiency in the block chain and decreased power of governments and banks in the longer term future.

aiCeivi9 9y ago
- If LN is very popular and successful won't it decrease miners profit to dangerously low levels? - How does Omise GO provide the most important bank feature: borrowing money? After all that is the main source of bank's income & impact on economy.
- wsc981 9y ago
  - I think if digital currencies become more popular and more usable for smaller transactions, then it could possibly offset the loss of not being able to mine new coins in the future. - I think lending out money will still be an important function of a bank, but it would already be awesome if we don't need a bank account anymore to do transactions over the internet or even in shops. Or if we can send money to each other without requiring our counter party to have a bank account.
philipwhiuk 9y ago
> Omise GO could give banking capabilities to people without needing them to sign up to bank accounts Assuming you don't count an Omise GO wallet as a bank account, which it obviously is.
babypistol 9y ago
I don't understand why people still do this type of "X will grow" predictions. You have nothing to lose by making such predictions, just like how everyone who predicted the rise of tulips is now laughed upon. Furthermore, even if Bitcoin DOES go up, it's not like you'll be applauded for being an 'oracle' just because you predicted this either. Pretty much everyone who's invested in Bitcoin, hoping to get rich, and doesn't understand the technology is saying the same thing. Why not actually learn how the technology works, so that you don't make these shallow deceptive remarks that sound exactly the same as the conversation I had with my blockchain-entrepeneur friend last night, and instead maybe stop trying to get rich quick by hyping Bitcoin? Regarding all the reasons you pointed out, except for the Lightning network solution, the rest are really big problems. Just because more and more people buy Bitcoin you think it will go up to 100.000? Just because you have some Bitcoin because of your speculative greed, you think Bitcoin will go up to $100.000? The limit and distribution of coins are really the biggest issues right now, and there are tons of different approaches people are working on to keep it that way. Just like tulips were unfairly distributed and overvalued. I'm sure people will see through the get-rich-quick scheme. One thing I find annnoying about Cryptocurrency enthusiasts saying Bitcoin will grow is how they think Bitcoin is some evolving thing that's sure to succeed because they bought into it early. Bitcoin was designed to enable people a decentralized currency and that's the whole point. People will find various ways to lure people into buying Bitcoin (or Omise GO) without clear benefits because financial inventivization comes from them already owning some coins.
- cocktailpeanuts 9y ago
  Wow, is this s bot account? It looks exactly like my comment here https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16028673 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16028673 yet has different content. I sort of hope this really is a bot account, that would be super impressive how you can take a paragraph and transform it into something else.
  - wsc981 9y ago
    I think it was done manually. This guy probably noticed that my comment was a play on another comment in this topic: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16028553 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16028553 :)
0wing 9y ago
What you should know about Cryptocurrency advocates is they're likely trying to SELL you on the need to buy into their scheme because they want to pass off their cyberbeaniebaby for more than it cost to produce it. Most of the cryptocurrencys started as an intentionally malicious form of a ponzi scheme (best to call it a Satoshi scheme). Most of the supply is produced early on so you need to psychologically exploit new users into thinking the supply is rare (only the production of new coins becomes less frequent). Because the cryptocoin exchanges are unregulated, traders easily use tactics like wash trading and painting the tape to push the spot price up higher and higher. The game is ultimately to sell for a high fiat price to the uninformed bagholders who are late to the party and don't understand the system. Perhaps there may be a form of ecash in the future that doesn't use an exploitative economic model of supply production, but for now be warned. (assuming a less manipulative supply production curve is implemented, PoW style mining still only transfers capital in proportion as computational work into the new system) See also the false equivalency to gold: If you understand the computer science behind Bitcoin, you'll realize how ridiculous the false equivalency to gold is. 1. The claim of "rare" doesn't exactly hold true. Consider the 10,000 BTC pizza - how did this happen? This was the direct result of Satoshi's economic policy, granting vast sums of BTC to mint out very quickly very early for a short duration to the very small pool of people who ran the software. Satoshi's algorithm produced BTC in plentiful quantities enabling the 10,000BTC pizza - thus it wasn't rare if you were Satoshi and the dozen other early whales hording as much as possible, until the algorithm begins cutting off the production and limiting later users from producing coins, starving the economy. Now there's a psychological game being played, where public relations and marketing must convince new users to buy in. Because the exchanges are unregulated, they can manipulate the spot price though wash trading and painting the tape [2] (where trades are falsified and you just sell the same item back and forth to your friend for a higher and higher price). The supply was created by running a piece of software. It's not magic. Most of the supply was produced very early on and as much as 30% of all Bitcoins are owned by less than 100 people. Best estimates are that there are about one million holders of Bitcoin; 47 individuals hold about 30 percent, another 900 hold a further 20 percent, the next 10,000 about 25% and another million about 20%, with 5% being lost. So 1/10th of one percent represent about half the holdings of Bitcoin and 1 percent close to 80 percent (http://www.businessinsider.com/927-people-own-half- of-the-bitcoins-2013-12). The concentration of Litecoin ownership is similar (http://litecoin-rich-list.blogspot.com). Most of the big wallets have been in place from early on, so sitting back and watching your capital grow has been a very successful strategy. The distribution of Bitcoin holdings looks much like the distribution of wealth in North Korea and makes the China’s and even the US’ wealth distribution look like that of a workers’ paradise 2. Easy migration to more advanced e-cash services, LTC, XMR, ETH, so on See: https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/views/all/ https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/views/all/ 3. Bitcoin network requires ASIC miners, largely centralized in China [3]. Assuming the inveitable surpassing of a more advanced cryptosytem making Bitcoin obsolete, as the market is informed there will be a decline in BTC's spot price and once this falls below the cost of OPEX for miners, the hardware goes offline and the network will cease to function. Maximalists will attempt to offer an emergency fork, in any attempt to save their "investment", just as they have developed the lightening network to create centeralized payment hubs, so "investors" can act as liquidity providors and take fees, instead of miners. 4. Electricty usage is unsustainable, GOTO 3 [1] https://bitcoin.stackexchange.com/questions/86/is-it-possible-to-estimate-the-gini-coefficient-for-bitcoins-and-if-the-trend-is https://bitcoin.stackexchange.com/questions/86/is-it-possibl... http://www.businessinsider.com/bitcoin-inequality-2014-1 http://www.businessinsider.com/bitcoin-inequality-2014-1 [2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6r04gfWfRkE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6r04gfWfRkE [3] https://qz.com/1055126/photos-china-has-one-of-worlds-largest-bitcoin-mines/ https://qz.com/1055126/photos-china-has-one-of-worlds-larges...

by wsc981 9y ago

aiCeivi9 9y ago

- If LN is very popular and successful won't it decrease miners profit to dangerously low levels? - How does Omise GO provide the most important bank feature: borrowing money? After all that is the main source of bank's income & impact on economy.

wsc981 9y ago
- I think if digital currencies become more popular and more usable for smaller transactions, then it could possibly offset the loss of not being able to mine new coins in the future. - I think lending out money will still be an important function of a bank, but it would already be awesome if we don't need a bank account anymore to do transactions over the internet or even in shops. Or if we can send money to each other without requiring our counter party to have a bank account.

philipwhiuk 9y ago

> Omise GO could give banking capabilities to people without needing them to sign up to bank accounts Assuming you don't count an Omise GO wallet as a bank account, which it obviously is.

babypistol 9y ago

I don't understand why people still do this type of "X will grow" predictions. You have nothing to lose by making such predictions, just like how everyone who predicted the rise of tulips is now laughed upon. Furthermore, even if Bitcoin DOES go up, it's not like you'll be applauded for being an 'oracle' just because you predicted this either. Pretty much everyone who's invested in Bitcoin, hoping to get rich, and doesn't understand the technology is saying the same thing. Why not actually learn how the technology works, so that you don't make these shallow deceptive remarks that sound exactly the same as the conversation I had with my blockchain-entrepeneur friend last night, and instead maybe stop trying to get rich quick by hyping Bitcoin? Regarding all the reasons you pointed out, except for the Lightning network solution, the rest are really big problems. Just because more and more people buy Bitcoin you think it will go up to 100.000? Just because you have some Bitcoin because of your speculative greed, you think Bitcoin will go up to $100.000? The limit and distribution of coins are really the biggest issues right now, and there are tons of different approaches people are working on to keep it that way. Just like tulips were unfairly distributed and overvalued. I'm sure people will see through the get-rich-quick scheme. One thing I find annnoying about Cryptocurrency enthusiasts saying Bitcoin will grow is how they think Bitcoin is some evolving thing that's sure to succeed because they bought into it early. Bitcoin was designed to enable people a decentralized currency and that's the whole point. People will find various ways to lure people into buying Bitcoin (or Omise GO) without clear benefits because financial inventivization comes from them already owning some coins.

cocktailpeanuts 9y ago
Wow, is this s bot account? It looks exactly like my comment here https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16028673 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16028673 yet has different content. I sort of hope this really is a bot account, that would be super impressive how you can take a paragraph and transform it into something else.
- wsc981 9y ago
  I think it was done manually. This guy probably noticed that my comment was a play on another comment in this topic: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16028553 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16028553 :)

0wing 9y ago

What you should know about Cryptocurrency advocates is they're likely trying to SELL you on the need to buy into their scheme because they want to pass off their cyberbeaniebaby for more than it cost to produce it. Most of the cryptocurrencys started as an intentionally malicious form of a ponzi scheme (best to call it a Satoshi scheme). Most of the supply is produced early on so you need to psychologically exploit new users into thinking the supply is rare (only the production of new coins becomes less frequent). Because the cryptocoin exchanges are unregulated, traders easily use tactics like wash trading and painting the tape to push the spot price up higher and higher. The game is ultimately to sell for a high fiat price to the uninformed bagholders who are late to the party and don't understand the system. Perhaps there may be a form of ecash in the future that doesn't use an exploitative economic model of supply production, but for now be warned. (assuming a less manipulative supply production curve is implemented, PoW style mining still only transfers capital in proportion as computational work into the new system) See also the false equivalency to gold: If you understand the computer science behind Bitcoin, you'll realize how ridiculous the false equivalency to gold is. 1. The claim of "rare" doesn't exactly hold true. Consider the 10,000 BTC pizza - how did this happen? This was the direct result of Satoshi's economic policy, granting vast sums of BTC to mint out very quickly very early for a short duration to the very small pool of people who ran the software. Satoshi's algorithm produced BTC in plentiful quantities enabling the 10,000BTC pizza - thus it wasn't rare if you were Satoshi and the dozen other early whales hording as much as possible, until the algorithm begins cutting off the production and limiting later users from producing coins, starving the economy. Now there's a psychological game being played, where public relations and marketing must convince new users to buy in. Because the exchanges are unregulated, they can manipulate the spot price though wash trading and painting the tape [2] (where trades are falsified and you just sell the same item back and forth to your friend for a higher and higher price). The supply was created by running a piece of software. It's not magic. Most of the supply was produced very early on and as much as 30% of all Bitcoins are owned by less than 100 people. Best estimates are that there are about one million holders of Bitcoin; 47 individuals hold about 30 percent, another 900 hold a further 20 percent, the next 10,000 about 25% and another million about 20%, with 5% being lost. So 1/10th of one percent represent about half the holdings of Bitcoin and 1 percent close to 80 percent (http://www.businessinsider.com/927-people-own-half- of-the-bitcoins-2013-12). The concentration of Litecoin ownership is similar (http://litecoin-rich-list.blogspot.com). Most of the big wallets have been in place from early on, so sitting back and watching your capital grow has been a very successful strategy. The distribution of Bitcoin holdings looks much like the distribution of wealth in North Korea and makes the China’s and even the US’ wealth distribution look like that of a workers’ paradise 2. Easy migration to more advanced e-cash services, LTC, XMR, ETH, so on See: https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/views/all/ https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/views/all/ 3. Bitcoin network requires ASIC miners, largely centralized in China [3]. Assuming the inveitable surpassing of a more advanced cryptosytem making Bitcoin obsolete, as the market is informed there will be a decline in BTC's spot price and once this falls below the cost of OPEX for miners, the hardware goes offline and the network will cease to function. Maximalists will attempt to offer an emergency fork, in any attempt to save their "investment", just as they have developed the lightening network to create centeralized payment hubs, so "investors" can act as liquidity providors and take fees, instead of miners. 4. Electricty usage is unsustainable, GOTO 3 [1] https://bitcoin.stackexchange.com/questions/86/is-it-possible-to-estimate-the-gini-coefficient-for-bitcoins-and-if-the-trend-is https://bitcoin.stackexchange.com/questions/86/is-it-possibl... http://www.businessinsider.com/bitcoin-inequality-2014-1 http://www.businessinsider.com/bitcoin-inequality-2014-1 [2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6r04gfWfRkE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6r04gfWfRkE [3] https://qz.com/1055126/photos-china-has-one-of-worlds-largest-bitcoin-mines/ https://qz.com/1055126/photos-china-has-one-of-worlds-larges...