3 ms·

Hmm - mind sharing the settings behind your calculations? Surprised the error is several orders of magnitude. (PM is fine, if Hacker News has an option like tha

Hmm - mind sharing the settings behind your calculations? Surprised the error is several orders of magnitude. (PM is fine, if Hacker News has an option like that) The model behind tool was based on a decently large / diverse data set of small websites; it lines up well with public information from sources such as site brokers. (and of course, I run sites as well and plugged my own data through the tool during the validation process) What kind of traffic are you getting on those sites? Probably also worth asking if there are site design or traffic factors that reduce advertising interest? (for example, forums and downloads may have lower intent)

Guest9812398 9y ago
One major issue with the tool is you're valuing all page views equally. 10 page views from 1 session will pay far less than 10 page views from 10 sessions. Advertisers cap their impressions per user, so revenues drop off fast as the number of page views per session increases. Also, don't forget about ad blocking. Over 50% of my users block advertisements, since they're young and tech savvy. That's a big drop in revenues right from the start. The first site has about 30 million page views a month from 3 million sessions. The second site has about 1.5 million page views from 250,000 sessions. Typical CPM rates... * $0.20 - Ad exchanges for low value regions. * $1.00 - Ad exchanges for high value regions (US, UK, Australia, Canada, etc). * $3.00 - Direct sales for MPU spots in high value regions. * $5-10.00 - Direct sales for background advertisements in high value regions. This is in the entertainment niche.
- sixtypoundhound 9y ago
  Ah... that's starting to make sense now. Yup, blowing through a bunch of impressions on the same audience will definitely tank CPM's and fill rates. I'm also going to guess you get a lot of repeat visits? (so those sessions are hitting a smaller base of uniques?) Hmm... thinking I may work up a corrective adjustment. Core development sample was blogs and small content sites, where the opposite problem exists (finding a way to unbounce the visitors so you go from 1.3 PV/S to 3+).

Guest9812398 9y ago

One major issue with the tool is you're valuing all page views equally. 10 page views from 1 session will pay far less than 10 page views from 10 sessions. Advertisers cap their impressions per user, so revenues drop off fast as the number of page views per session increases. Also, don't forget about ad blocking. Over 50% of my users block advertisements, since they're young and tech savvy. That's a big drop in revenues right from the start. The first site has about 30 million page views a month from 3 million sessions. The second site has about 1.5 million page views from 250,000 sessions. Typical CPM rates... * $0.20 - Ad exchanges for low value regions. * $1.00 - Ad exchanges for high value regions (US, UK, Australia, Canada, etc). * $3.00 - Direct sales for MPU spots in high value regions. * $5-10.00 - Direct sales for background advertisements in high value regions. This is in the entertainment niche.

sixtypoundhound 9y ago
Ah... that's starting to make sense now. Yup, blowing through a bunch of impressions on the same audience will definitely tank CPM's and fill rates. I'm also going to guess you get a lot of repeat visits? (so those sessions are hitting a smaller base of uniques?) Hmm... thinking I may work up a corrective adjustment. Core development sample was blogs and small content sites, where the opposite problem exists (finding a way to unbounce the visitors so you go from 1.3 PV/S to 3+).