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>The next halving could cause a transient effect in the network where the number of machines mining on the network drops dramatically. This may have the effect

by ouid 9y ago

>The next halving could cause a transient effect in the network where the number of machines mining on the network drops dramatically. This may have the effect of miners selling off their Bitcoin and the value falling. This is not how markets work. Anything knowable about the future is reflected in the current price.

Tyrek 9y ago
Only under efficient market hypothesis (EMH), which is not necessarily the true state of the market. Under EMH, 2008 would never have happened, because all the (unforeseen) risk would have been priced in as 'knowable' - the risk of default was mathematically provable, even if no one ever took the time to do the math.
- ouid 9y ago
  Risk isn't the same thing as expected value.
  - mcguire 9y ago
    Risk also isn't the same thing as uncertainty. Also, markets can have a short attention span.