5 ms·

I think your parent is saying that when you actually measure whether your claim is true, it isn't actually correlated in the failure case. I remember reading s

I think your parent is saying that when you actually measure whether your claim is true, it isn't actually correlated in the failure case. I remember reading something that corroborated this [1]. That source claimed that previous founders of successful companies had a much greater chance at additional success, but previous failures didn't increase your chances (ie. you don't, in fact, learn more from failure than success -- at least when it comes to founding failed startups). Edit adding source: [1] https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=933932 https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=933932

JamesBarney 9y ago
Ycombinator has made a lot of money based on the idea that some people are better at creating start ups than others. They don't just bet on ideas they also bet on people.
- tikhonj 9y ago
  On the flipside, it could be that Y Combinator has made a lot of money by creating an environment that helps startups succeed. Apart from money, they provide founders advice, structure and a set of motivated peers. More cynically, they also provide prestige, validation and connections. I have no doubt Y Combinator would still be successful even if their selection method was not very good. (I tend to think about top universities the same way—the quality of Harvard's admissions process is not the core reason they graduate so many successful students.)
  - raverbashing 9y ago
    Yeah, it's probable that a couple of teams are less stellar than others, they can probably work it out though It would be interesting to know about some companies that don't get to Demo day or that doesn't put out a great presentation
  - tylerhou 9y ago
    Personally, I feel like the success of Harvard students is mostly selection bias with respect to their admissions department - i.e., everyone who gets into Harvard would be successful anywhere else. But then again, I was just rejected from Harvard, so you might want to take my opinion with a grain of salt.
    - thaumasiotes 9y ago
      Studies of people accepted to Harvard but who chose to attend other schools support your theory.
      - tylerhou 9y ago
        I also thought that, but I couldn’t find any references to any of those studies when I was writing my comment. Do you happen to know where I could find them?
- computerphage 9y ago
  Right. And that source isn't claiming that people are all equally good at founding startups. Rather, it's claiming that previous failures don't substantially make a person better at founding successful companies. (They do find a very small 2% effect, but that may be statistical noise).
fsloth 9y ago
Thanks! This is the reference which I tried to recall.
shard 9y ago
Two caveats: 1. That study only applies to venture-funded startups, so startups funded by other sources are not included. 2. There is a small difference between success rates of 1st time entrepreneurs (18%) compared with entrepreneurs who previously failed (20%), so previous failures may give a small boost in future success rates.

JamesBarney 9y ago

Ycombinator has made a lot of money based on the idea that some people are better at creating start ups than others. They don't just bet on ideas they also bet on people.

tikhonj 9y ago
On the flipside, it could be that Y Combinator has made a lot of money by creating an environment that helps startups succeed. Apart from money, they provide founders advice, structure and a set of motivated peers. More cynically, they also provide prestige, validation and connections. I have no doubt Y Combinator would still be successful even if their selection method was not very good. (I tend to think about top universities the same way—the quality of Harvard's admissions process is not the core reason they graduate so many successful students.)
- raverbashing 9y ago
  Yeah, it's probable that a couple of teams are less stellar than others, they can probably work it out though It would be interesting to know about some companies that don't get to Demo day or that doesn't put out a great presentation
- tylerhou 9y ago
  Personally, I feel like the success of Harvard students is mostly selection bias with respect to their admissions department - i.e., everyone who gets into Harvard would be successful anywhere else. But then again, I was just rejected from Harvard, so you might want to take my opinion with a grain of salt.
  - thaumasiotes 9y ago
    Studies of people accepted to Harvard but who chose to attend other schools support your theory.
    - tylerhou 9y ago
      I also thought that, but I couldn’t find any references to any of those studies when I was writing my comment. Do you happen to know where I could find them?
computerphage 9y ago
Right. And that source isn't claiming that people are all equally good at founding startups. Rather, it's claiming that previous failures don't substantially make a person better at founding successful companies. (They do find a very small 2% effect, but that may be statistical noise).

fsloth 9y ago

Thanks! This is the reference which I tried to recall.

shard 9y ago

Two caveats: 1. That study only applies to venture-funded startups, so startups funded by other sources are not included. 2. There is a small difference between success rates of 1st time entrepreneurs (18%) compared with entrepreneurs who previously failed (20%), so previous failures may give a small boost in future success rates.