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It's not irrational. It's an asset whose price is rising. If you want to make money, it's a good asset to trade. Just avoid hodling the bag when the music stops
by AlexCoventry 9y ago
It's not irrational. It's an asset whose price is rising. If you want to make money, it's a good asset to trade. Just avoid hodling the bag when the music stops...
- thisisit 9y ago> Just avoid hodling the bag when the music stops... and how do you know exactly when the music has stopped?
- pertsix 9y agoa lot more people sell than buy cryptocurrency
- diogofranco 9y agoHow would that work? Any coin that is bought is also sold, so you're saying that the buys come from a few people buying big amounts? But all those sellers were buyers at some point...
- pertsix 9y agobuyers are willing to trade USD for more bitcoins. the price might never go to zero, but it will approach it.
- jcoffland 9y agoIt's easy to tell when the music has stopped. The hard part is anticipating the stopping.
- lr4444lr 9y agoWhat do you think of the "buy low, sell high" strategy? ;-)
- huphelmeyer 9y agoIs it that easy? The Nasdaq bubble took roughly 6 years to inflate and 3 years to "pop". The real estate bubble took about 11 years to inflate and 6 years to fully deflate. Even Enron took the better part of a year to fully deflate. Maybe balloon is a better word than bubble.
- shrimpx 9y agoPeople who can't tell it has popped are the ones keeping it on life support for years. :-)
- empath75 9y agoWhen you’re broke.
- deleted 9y ago[deleted]
- sillysaurus3 9y agoI've told people to buy at $3,800, $5,900, and $14,000 and got shouted down each time. All of these were after major crashes, so of course the price was about to bounce back. Even if you know when the music hasn't stopped yet, it's very hard to get anyone to listen.
- ascom 9y agoOh boy... I told my dad to buy at $8, $27, $200, $2000, $3000, $6000, and $12000. None of these times has he actually taken any action. :( If only I turned 18 a couple years earlier...
- shuaib 9y agoYour dad is a wise man!
- sillysaurus3 9y agoOn the other hand, if he had put in $8 at $8, he'd have $16,000 today.
- yason 9y agoBuying at $8 would be easy. Not selling at $200 would be hard. Not selling at $2000 would be even harder.
- sean2 9y agoIt's easy to see in retrospect that the beginning of bitcoin would've been a good place to throw in some meaningless quantities of cash, but I think once you divide by the number of small, potential investments you could make that wouldn't have made you money, and subtract the amount of time commitment to keep track of those investments, the outcome is less appealing. (Obviously, some people knew it was about explode, but I'm looking at everything you hear your kid, or a co-worker giving you hot tips about, which was the boat I was in and it sounds like this kid's dad was in).
- 9y ago
- AlexCoventry 9y agoIt crashes during scandals like Mt Gox, and the big crash will come when a major nation-state decides to crack down on it. Full disclosure: I don't own any Bitcoin, but I own other cryptocurrencies.
- bdcravens 9y agoGood question. Many thought the music had stopped in 2014, when the price crashed from $1200 to less than $200. (Previously in 2011-2012 it crashed from $35 to less than $2, which was pre-ASICs, so you really couldn't mine at a profit)
- cortesoft 9y agoIf the assumption is that the price will crash, then every dollar made by someone on bitcoin is a dollar lost by someone on bitcoin, since the underlying asset had no intrinsic value at all. Given that there are a lot of people who have more resources than me, and can do better research and better market manipulation, I am pretty sure I have a better chance of being in the group that loses the money.
- heurist 9y agoLong-term it is hard to justify a conclusion that cryptocurrencies will fail as a technology. It's too big of a leap forward in too many industries. Short term, bitcoin might move too slowly and be surpassed by a competitor, or big money might manipulate the market and take advantage of people who have no idea what they're doing. I see these as issues that will diminish and fade over time as the technology matures. The solution is to stay attentive, invest with caution and hold on through the booms and busts. Not hard to do, all said and done, though I understand why many fear it.
- AlexCoventry 9y agoCryptocurrencies generically, sure. Permissioned blockchains are going to be huge. Medium to long term, decentralized validation mechanisms are going to get hit hard by double spends, and decentralized currencies will fall drastically when that happens.
- eksemplar 9y agoConsidering banks have taken to use ripple, crypto obviously has it’s place. Bitcoin doesn’t really seem like it’ll have much of a future though. Well unless people keep pretending the naked emperor has clothes, which they might.