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One nitpick is that the $200k turning into $1M in 12 years is equivalent to 14% compounded annually. For context, the 90-year average annual growth of S&P 500 i
by ctchocula 9y ago
One nitpick is that the $200k turning into $1M in 12 years is equivalent to 14% compounded annually. For context, the 90-year average annual growth of S&P 500 index before inflation (a commonly used standard benchmark) is only 9.8% (I'm guessing they backtracked this number since S&P 500 has only existed for 60 years) [1]. In 12 years, the expected value of that $200k would only be $614k. It's clear Gatto has cherrypicked his numbers by picking 1988 and 2000, which marked one of the biggest bull markets in recent history is by no means representative. What's more, the state can hardly be expected to invest in a pension fund composed of 100% equity, 0% bonds, so the expected return would likely be less than $614k.
[1] https://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/18/the-sp-500-has-already-met-its-average-return-for-a-full-year.html https://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/18/the-sp-500-has-already-met-i...
- throwanem 9y agoGatto may have cherry-picked to enhance his argument, I can't say, but if so it's severable - even the principal alone, even in unadjusted 2017 dollars, would be enough to make a solid start in life, whichever route one chose, so I think it's fair to consider that his point still stands.