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> None of these technologies will disrupt big tech. Famous last words. Seriously though, this is the kind of thing people said about PCs, Microsoft, Linux, th

> None of these technologies will disrupt big tech. Famous last words. Seriously though, this is the kind of thing people said about PCs, Microsoft, Linux, the iPhone, etc. (And today, about machine learning, blockchains, and VR.) It's nearly impossible to tell what will disrupt the world, but typically it's the kinds of things that bring back the balance of power. All of these things are enablers, and allow your 3-person startup to innovate in spaces with huge powerful competitors.

vectorpush 9y ago
This is an oft repeated fallacy by blockchain enthusiasts. Skeptical predictions from the past that turned out to be incorrect in hindsight has absolutely zero relevance to the viability of blockchain technology.
- always_good 9y ago
  Well, you would invoke the point to challenge dismissal which I think is fair. Airing skepticism of a technology does little more than fuel forum fights after all.
  - vectorpush 9y ago
    It's not "fair" as far as logical argumentation is concerned because the statement proves nothing since it is equally true of successful technologies as it is of failed technologies. It is an absolutely meaningless platitude.
fauigerzigerk 9y ago
I agree in a sense, but it depends on whether we're talking about disrupting the current incumbants or about disrupting the mechanisms of centralisation itself. Microsoft's PC has disrupted IBM and created a new "monopoly". Same with the web and mobile platforms, which are now dominated by a handful of oligopolists that appear stronger than everything seen before. I think incumbants can always be disrupted, but can they be replaced with something structurally less prone to centralised control or are we just headed for the next cycle of disruption and re-centralisation of power?
- ethbro 9y ago
  > incumbants can always be disrupted * * Given they fail to recognize a technological tipping point Microsoft won on the PC. Linux won (in the server world) on standards and open source. Google won on tracking and advertising. Facebook won on mobile.
edraferi 9y ago
True, but also a safe statement. Most high-risk revolutions / startups / ventures fail. It is vanishingly unlikely that any of these projects will see widespread adoption and success. So you can just say “that will never work” to everything and be right most of the time. Of course, VCs make their money by occasionally finding the one that breaks the mold. Picking winners is hard.
- Nuzzerino 9y ago
  Correction: Most VC-backed startups fail. But that's beside the point. You can't make the argument that "most will fail" and conclude that "this category of tech will never bring success to any company". Fallacious nonsense if I ever heard it.
norswap 9y ago
In the past, people said the winners would fail. In the past, people also said that the losers would fail. There are many more losers than winners, that doesn't really mean anything.

vectorpush 9y ago

This is an oft repeated fallacy by blockchain enthusiasts. Skeptical predictions from the past that turned out to be incorrect in hindsight has absolutely zero relevance to the viability of blockchain technology.

always_good 9y ago
Well, you would invoke the point to challenge dismissal which I think is fair. Airing skepticism of a technology does little more than fuel forum fights after all.
- vectorpush 9y ago
  It's not "fair" as far as logical argumentation is concerned because the statement proves nothing since it is equally true of successful technologies as it is of failed technologies. It is an absolutely meaningless platitude.

fauigerzigerk 9y ago

I agree in a sense, but it depends on whether we're talking about disrupting the current incumbants or about disrupting the mechanisms of centralisation itself. Microsoft's PC has disrupted IBM and created a new "monopoly". Same with the web and mobile platforms, which are now dominated by a handful of oligopolists that appear stronger than everything seen before. I think incumbants can always be disrupted, but can they be replaced with something structurally less prone to centralised control or are we just headed for the next cycle of disruption and re-centralisation of power?

ethbro 9y ago
> incumbants can always be disrupted * * Given they fail to recognize a technological tipping point Microsoft won on the PC. Linux won (in the server world) on standards and open source. Google won on tracking and advertising. Facebook won on mobile.

edraferi 9y ago

True, but also a safe statement. Most high-risk revolutions / startups / ventures fail. It is vanishingly unlikely that any of these projects will see widespread adoption and success. So you can just say “that will never work” to everything and be right most of the time. Of course, VCs make their money by occasionally finding the one that breaks the mold. Picking winners is hard.

Nuzzerino 9y ago
Correction: Most VC-backed startups fail. But that's beside the point. You can't make the argument that "most will fail" and conclude that "this category of tech will never bring success to any company". Fallacious nonsense if I ever heard it.

norswap 9y ago

In the past, people said the winners would fail. In the past, people also said that the losers would fail. There are many more losers than winners, that doesn't really mean anything.