> For most assets, you can generally assume it will be close to what it currently is priced at. True with some caveats. This statement assumes no forward rate

> For most assets, you can generally assume it will be close to what it currently is priced at. True with some caveats. This statement assumes no forward rate. If the risk-free rate is high, then the future price should generally be expected to appreciate. This statement also requires some assumptions about the probability distribution of future price changes. Let's take a common example of a multi-modal distribution: court decisions. Imagine companies XYZ and ABC are engaged in a patent dispute. Both companies profit greatly from the production and sale of doodads, and (for the sake of example) we have been told that exactly one company will need to cease doodad production as a result of the decision. The company that ceases production should trade down as a result of its lost future profits, and the other company should trade up. In this case, even though the current prices may be E[XYZ] and E[ABC], the future price is going to be markedly different for both.