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As they say, past performance is no indication of future potential. This is especially true the shorter the trader's history. Thus, reading one trader's secre
by blunte 9y ago
As they say, past performance is no indication of future potential. This is especially true the shorter the trader's history. Thus, reading one trader's secret of success may as well be like listening to a slot machine player's 3-week winning strategy story.
Meanwhile, identifying recurring inefficiencies and working out the details of how to take advantage of those inefficiencies can produce a more reliable income. Unfortunately, inefficiencies are really a polite euphemism for "other people's money that they didn't realize they were losing". Brokers and exchanges are quick to shut down a successful trader if that trader is costing them money, just as a casino will ban a player who consistently beats the house (for enough money to be noticed).
I have my own crypto strategy, and it's about as simple as surfing. Each new wave (no pun intended, if you know what I mean ;) ) may grow and give you something to ride. Not all waves do, and timing when to get on is important. We people on HN probably have a nice advantage over the fascinated (and gambling-minded) masses. This is perhaps what the guy in the article was describing was his basis for success.
- jacquesm 9y ago> I have my own crypto strategy, and it's about as simple as surfing. Each new wave (no pun intended, if you know what I mean ;) ) may grow and give you something to ride. All the way to the scene of the crash.
- blunte 9y agoI guess the reason people keep surfing is that one out of every X waves is big and awesome, and worth the swim back out.
- rebuilder 9y agoSo far, it seems to me that a level-headed crypto bull would have had an advantage over the average crypto trader. Winning strategy, historically, would be to be biased towards holding Bitcoin, but selling when the price rises start to reach maybe 20% /day, and resisting the urge to buy back in when the price is rebounding a few months after a major bubble burst, choosing instead to start buying when the price has gone down to 20% of the previous top. One problem is, it's really hard to follow that strategy since most if the time, it'll look like the market is moving against you. A bigger problem is that the strategy assumes Bitcoin will continue to rise in valuation for at least one more bubble. Which is a huge assumption to make.
- chrisco255 9y agoNo guarantees the price will bottom out at 20% of the previous top.