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A good look into trader psych is Taleb's "Fooled by Randomness". All of this predates Bitcoin, though I'd argue the open nature of cryptocurrency allows for peo
by ErikAugust 9y ago
A good look into trader psych is Taleb's "Fooled by Randomness". All of this predates Bitcoin, though I'd argue the open nature of cryptocurrency allows for people with "extraordinarily active imaginations" (let's say) to participate.
- ggg9990 9y agoA very effective trading strategy is to predict how others will react when fooled by randomness. Difficult in the stock market, easier in smaller markets like sports betting and crypto currency.
- Zenbit_UX 9y agoThere was a story on the top of HN recently about an Asian student who came to live in the US and joined a hedge fund out of uni. He successfully predicted a huge windfall for his fund - but for entirely the wrong reasons. He put a lot of effort and research into his analysis of the market and was sure he understood it well enough to bet big. He failed but luck saved him and made a killing. His boss told him not to tell anyone, ever, and then promoted him. His boss was also promoted for his 'talent' in managing a successful team. The student was self-aware enough to realize he failed spectacularly and left the fund, but many aren't. Cognitive dissonance is rampant in the financial sector and with bitcoin everyone feels like a stock-broker, it's a dangerous game if you let your ego dictate your strategy.
- ForHackernews 9y agoLink?
- AndrewDucker 9y agohttps://americanaffairsjournal.org/2017/11/western-elite-chinese-perspective/ https://americanaffairsjournal.org/2017/11/western-elite-chi...
- hxta98596 9y agoNice read, thanks.
- laktek 9y agoThe book "What I Learned Losing A Million Dollars" tells the opposite of that story - what happens when you misinterpret luck as talent.
- ThomPete 9y agoThere are no prodigies, only bull and bear markets.