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And anyone who bought in at $15k-19k is left holding the bag, as expected.

notheguyouthink 9y ago
I've been avoiding buying for this very reason. I know bitcoin well enough to know it's going to crash, it's always going to crash, so never touch it on an upswing. Buying it now is fairly reasonable. Though, I wouldn't be surprised to see it crash yet again, even harder, but it felt like buying on that upswing to 20k was suicide.
- explorigin 9y ago
  It's not even done crashing
  - ssharp 9y ago
    Is there any evidence the price should have went from $1k to almost $20k other than hysteria and fraud? If not, why buy?
    - spraak 9y ago
      A question for a recurrent neural network, maybe.
    - LV-426 9y ago
      To be fair, it probably will be pumped to $50k some time in the future (before crashing again). It's what Bitcoin does. After ten years, it's all it does. In 2011 (or something, I'm going by memory) it rose to $30 before crashing back to about $5. In 2013 (still the days when all people had to do was spam a few forums) it reached $10, $100, $200 before stagnating until MtGox and Willybot pumped it up to $1k. ISTR some people back then were predicting $10k BTC by the end of the next year (end of 2014). Instead it was about $500 or something, and BTC didn't reach $1k again for about three years (the start of this year or end of last year).
      - ssharp 9y ago
        I think this latest pump brought in a lot of Regular Joe speculators. Not sure if that can be repeated again, but I guess all those Regular Joes now have Coinbase accounts, so maybe.
- scotty79 9y ago
  > Buying it now is fairly reasonable. I'd wait few months. If it is actually crashing not just backing up before next silly raise then you'd be better off waiting till it settles after the crash. It usually takes few months or a year. If you don't want to gamble, bitcoin is rather long term investment.
  - leshow 9y ago
    no matter what term you invest on it's a gamble.
    - scotty79 9y ago
      Technically true, no matter what you invest in and for how long, but I suspect casinos would be less thrilling places and caused less addictive costly behaviors if you had to wait for the outcome of your gamble few years.
  - paul7986 9y ago
    I opened a bank account for BitCoin and put less then $100 into for investment. No way would I ever connect my real bank account to any crypto currency wallet. Anyway I invested the $100 and I am down, but whatever it's like going to the casino and gambling/losing it all.
    - skinnymuch 9y ago
      Yeah I mean it's just $100. Not much to go up or down on with it.
scotty79 9y ago
Funny thing is not many that bought for 15k will sell below that, so price will drop (as did few times before, when bitcoin experienced rapid appreciation) but it won't drop to the before-bubble price but slightly higher. It will either very gradually climb from there or stay steady for 3 years or so and then experience next crazy ride up. Then most of the guys who bought for 15k will sell. The point is, people buy bitcoin with money they don't need anyways so they can go long and most of them will because bitcoin apparently can't die no matter how many bubble popping it experiences.
- scotty79 9y ago
  Funny how any pro-bitcoin comment immediately attracts downvotes. I'm considering posting opposite of what I think about bitcoin to get those sweet, sweet upvotes. :-)
  - canthonytucci 9y ago
    from the guidelines: >Please don't comment about the voting on comments. It never does any good, and it makes boring reading. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
    - eitland 9y ago
      Meta: but this is probably one of the rules I've broken most frequently. Most times not because I was downvoted (and then only to ask for an explanation IIRC) but because it seems like people are misunderstanding or IMO abusing the downvote feature.
  - sk5t 9y ago
    If your implementation of "posting opposite" were to include evidence, analysis, or other than blind assertion, perhaps those upvotes would flow.
- ufo 9y ago
  I think this might explain short term behavior but not the long term one. The same argument applies to beanie babies and other speculative bubbles that eventualy did crash.

I've been avoiding buying for this very reason. I know bitcoin well enough to know it's going to crash, it's always going to crash, so never touch it on an upswing. Buying it now is fairly reasonable. Though, I wouldn't be surprised to see it crash yet again, even harder, but it felt like buying on that upswing to 20k was suicide.

explorigin 9y ago
It's not even done crashing
- ssharp 9y ago
  Is there any evidence the price should have went from $1k to almost $20k other than hysteria and fraud? If not, why buy?
  - spraak 9y ago
    A question for a recurrent neural network, maybe.
  - LV-426 9y ago
    To be fair, it probably will be pumped to $50k some time in the future (before crashing again). It's what Bitcoin does. After ten years, it's all it does. In 2011 (or something, I'm going by memory) it rose to $30 before crashing back to about $5. In 2013 (still the days when all people had to do was spam a few forums) it reached $10, $100, $200 before stagnating until MtGox and Willybot pumped it up to $1k. ISTR some people back then were predicting $10k BTC by the end of the next year (end of 2014). Instead it was about $500 or something, and BTC didn't reach $1k again for about three years (the start of this year or end of last year).
    - ssharp 9y ago
      I think this latest pump brought in a lot of Regular Joe speculators. Not sure if that can be repeated again, but I guess all those Regular Joes now have Coinbase accounts, so maybe.
scotty79 9y ago
> Buying it now is fairly reasonable. I'd wait few months. If it is actually crashing not just backing up before next silly raise then you'd be better off waiting till it settles after the crash. It usually takes few months or a year. If you don't want to gamble, bitcoin is rather long term investment.
- leshow 9y ago
  no matter what term you invest on it's a gamble.
  - scotty79 9y ago
    Technically true, no matter what you invest in and for how long, but I suspect casinos would be less thrilling places and caused less addictive costly behaviors if you had to wait for the outcome of your gamble few years.
- paul7986 9y ago
  I opened a bank account for BitCoin and put less then $100 into for investment. No way would I ever connect my real bank account to any crypto currency wallet. Anyway I invested the $100 and I am down, but whatever it's like going to the casino and gambling/losing it all.
  - skinnymuch 9y ago
    Yeah I mean it's just $100. Not much to go up or down on with it.

scotty79 9y ago

Funny thing is not many that bought for 15k will sell below that, so price will drop (as did few times before, when bitcoin experienced rapid appreciation) but it won't drop to the before-bubble price but slightly higher. It will either very gradually climb from there or stay steady for 3 years or so and then experience next crazy ride up. Then most of the guys who bought for 15k will sell. The point is, people buy bitcoin with money they don't need anyways so they can go long and most of them will because bitcoin apparently can't die no matter how many bubble popping it experiences.

scotty79 9y ago
Funny how any pro-bitcoin comment immediately attracts downvotes. I'm considering posting opposite of what I think about bitcoin to get those sweet, sweet upvotes. :-)
- canthonytucci 9y ago
  from the guidelines: >Please don't comment about the voting on comments. It never does any good, and it makes boring reading. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
  - eitland 9y ago
    Meta: but this is probably one of the rules I've broken most frequently. Most times not because I was downvoted (and then only to ask for an explanation IIRC) but because it seems like people are misunderstanding or IMO abusing the downvote feature.
- sk5t 9y ago
  If your implementation of "posting opposite" were to include evidence, analysis, or other than blind assertion, perhaps those upvotes would flow.
ufo 9y ago
I think this might explain short term behavior but not the long term one. The same argument applies to beanie babies and other speculative bubbles that eventualy did crash.