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I am economist and I have expressed deep reservations about bitcoin (generally, any currency, including crypto-currencies, that have a finite supply https://med
by qubex 9y ago
I am economist and I have expressed deep reservations about bitcoin (generally, any currency, including crypto-currencies, that have a finite supply https://medium.com/@jamesjunghanns/my-0-00000173120-btc-a-practicing-orthodox-macroeconomists-unsolicited-views-on-bitcoin-543da352fc49 https://medium.com/@jamesjunghanns/my-0-00000173120-btc-a-pr...).
I am always extraordinarily suspicious of any explanation of a large market movement (downwards or upwards) that is attributed to somebody saying or doing something. The reason is it's fair that there be a few market participants are so uncertain about the value of their assets and their prospective evolution that they react suddenly, but if the market is so shallow that apparently most participants just react to technical trends, then you have a problem.
I wish also to add that the market turning “just about now” had been predicted quite a long time out (30 November) on the public record by the application of the well-known financial model Log-Periodic Power Law (LPPL), whose application to the BTY/USD exchange rate can be read here:
https://mynabla.com/2017/11/30/bubble-trouble-exploring-an-lppl-model-for-bitcoin/ https://mynabla.com/2017/11/30/bubble-trouble-exploring-an-l...
So no, bitcoin did not tank because some “idiot swede” said something inopportune. It tanked because the market was totally disconnected from reality (and has been for ages, maybe forever), and because apparently a large proportion of participants are trading purely on technical and not fundamental valuations, and therefore act in unison and pro-cyclically in a shallow and illiquid market. Add to this that it is probably noxious for any economy to adopt a fixed-quantity, deflationary currency, and... there you have it.
- simo7 9y agoBubbles can last very long though, to a certain extent gold itself has been in a bubble for decades. The real advantage of bitcoin is a bit of a paradox. Precisely because it has no value (and it's unsuitable as a currency) it can work as a pure game of musical chairs which can in theory go on indefinitely (technical limits aside).
- qubex 9y agoYeah, they can... I sure hope the cryptocurrency champion becomes some other “Generation 2.0” implementation that figures out how to use the BlockChain to implement a variable-supply inflationary currency (as BaseCoin, that I like the idea of, but have no affiliation to, and no interest in).