Ask HN: Do you think open source social networking can take off?

I just signed up for Diaspora* again, after seeing the article about Mastodon on the front page, but I suspect I'll just use it to cross post to Facebook. There are many reasons a centralized business (eg Facebook) that everyone is already on will squash stuff like Diaspora from ever taking off (latter is more complicated to start with, inherently less capable of attracting users in first place, etc.). Do you think there is any strategy/way a decentralized and open social media platform can ever take off? It just seems like the way things should be... but most likely will never be.