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Identifying bubbles with absolute certainty may be impossible, but identifying them with a reasonable amount of confidence is possible. They follow similar path
by meri_dian 9y ago
Identifying bubbles with absolute certainty may be impossible, but identifying them with a reasonable amount of confidence is possible. They follow similar paths.
- BlanketApple 9y agoOf course, there's the old saying that the financial media has correctly predicted 20 of the last 3 bubbles
- yellowbeard 9y agoI think the original quote is "The stock market has forecast nine of the last five recessions." 1966 https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Paul_Samuelson https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Paul_Samuelson But the idea probably applies to most predictions :)
- mbesto 9y agoDo you have a data model you can share that would show "a reasonable amount of confidence"?