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> It’s a good time to experience what a bubble looks like so you can detect one in the future... Unfortunately predicting bubbles is nigh impossible. Bubbles c

by mbesto 9y ago

> It’s a good time to experience what a bubble looks like so you can detect one in the future... Unfortunately predicting bubbles is nigh impossible. Bubbles can only be defined after they exist.

meri_dian 9y ago
Identifying bubbles with absolute certainty may be impossible, but identifying them with a reasonable amount of confidence is possible. They follow similar paths.
- BlanketApple 9y ago
  Of course, there's the old saying that the financial media has correctly predicted 20 of the last 3 bubbles
  - yellowbeard 9y ago
    I think the original quote is "The stock market has forecast nine of the last five recessions." 1966 https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Paul_Samuelson https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Paul_Samuelson But the idea probably applies to most predictions :)
- mbesto 9y ago
  Do you have a data model you can share that would show "a reasonable amount of confidence"?
mey 9y ago
There are means of prediction/identification that will not identify exactly when it collapses but identifies the potential. Has the cost of the thing separated from it's usefulness? (Bitcoin is too slow and expensive for transactions. It's too volatile to be a storage of worth.) Does slapping unrelated products with it's name boost that products purely from branding? New financial instrument backing the bubble? In this case we have the holy grail where the backing instrument is the thing itself! https://www.forbes.com/sites/investor/2017/05/31/cryptocurrency-is-a-bubble/#7f6415333b16 https://www.forbes.com/sites/investor/2017/05/31/cryptocurre... Bubble Talk Cycle: Not talking about a bubble, discourse of a bubble, denying a bubble, seeing a bubble, late investors rushing into to get gains from the bubble. Shoeshine boy: Everyone is excited about bitcoin, seeing the large numbers you start getting random people proffering as the next sure thing.
- mbesto 9y ago
  > but identifies the potential That's not what the parent said. They said "detect one". "detect" != "identifies the potential" no?
dragonwriter 9y ago
Identifying bubbles is not all that hard; very few bubbles are not widely recognized before they burst, and very few not-bubbles are widely identified as bubbles. Predicting the timing of a bubble bursting, OTOH, is hard, as is predicting the natural support level they will revert to.after bursting.

by mbesto 9y ago

> It’s a good time to experience what a bubble looks like so you can detect one in the future... Unfortunately predicting bubbles is nigh impossible. Bubbles can only be defined after they exist.

meri_dian 9y ago

Identifying bubbles with absolute certainty may be impossible, but identifying them with a reasonable amount of confidence is possible. They follow similar paths.

BlanketApple 9y ago
Of course, there's the old saying that the financial media has correctly predicted 20 of the last 3 bubbles
- yellowbeard 9y ago
  I think the original quote is "The stock market has forecast nine of the last five recessions." 1966 https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Paul_Samuelson https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Paul_Samuelson But the idea probably applies to most predictions :)
mbesto 9y ago
Do you have a data model you can share that would show "a reasonable amount of confidence"?

mey 9y ago

There are means of prediction/identification that will not identify exactly when it collapses but identifies the potential. Has the cost of the thing separated from it's usefulness? (Bitcoin is too slow and expensive for transactions. It's too volatile to be a storage of worth.) Does slapping unrelated products with it's name boost that products purely from branding? New financial instrument backing the bubble? In this case we have the holy grail where the backing instrument is the thing itself! https://www.forbes.com/sites/investor/2017/05/31/cryptocurrency-is-a-bubble/#7f6415333b16 https://www.forbes.com/sites/investor/2017/05/31/cryptocurre... Bubble Talk Cycle: Not talking about a bubble, discourse of a bubble, denying a bubble, seeing a bubble, late investors rushing into to get gains from the bubble. Shoeshine boy: Everyone is excited about bitcoin, seeing the large numbers you start getting random people proffering as the next sure thing.

mbesto 9y ago
> but identifies the potential That's not what the parent said. They said "detect one". "detect" != "identifies the potential" no?

dragonwriter 9y ago

Identifying bubbles is not all that hard; very few bubbles are not widely recognized before they burst, and very few not-bubbles are widely identified as bubbles. Predicting the timing of a bubble bursting, OTOH, is hard, as is predicting the natural support level they will revert to.after bursting.