3 ms·

What is Rich Facebook going to overlook?

by matthew-wegner 16y ago

mixmax 16y ago
In a few years it will be glaringly obvious.
- mortenjorck 16y ago
  My current guess is that Tumblr is going to figure out the real potential of their "reblogging" system sometime in the next 18 months and whatever strange new beast that has become will make "liking" look like using an AOL keyword.
- wolfhumble 16y ago
  It is easy to be a general AFTER the war.
kingkilr 16y ago
Dunno, but if I find out it's certainly not going in a blog post ;)
mkramlich 16y ago
It could have been Diaspora but the Diaspora team made such a big public splash and have so many eyeballs now I'm not so sure. Surely somebody at the top of Facebook has got to be looking at that Kickstarter pledge level of $200k and thinking, "Uh, Mark? We have to talk..."
- mingdingo 16y ago
  I really don't think Diaspora was ever on their radar. They'll have far more credible threats in the future.
  - zumda 16y ago
    Mark Zuckerberg actually donated to Diaspora: http://www.wired.com/epicenter/2010/05/zuckerberg-interview/ http://www.wired.com/epicenter/2010/05/zuckerberg-interview/
InclinedPlane 16y ago
Facebook overlooks the fact that lock-in is nearly meaningless on the web, so you can't treat your user base as a given. eBay is ignoring this. Myspace ignored this and they're nearly irrelevant now. Companies are growing to the multi-billion dollar mark faster than ever. That trend will only continue as technological advances continue. What will happen in the near future as SSDs get better, larger, and cheaper? What will happen as multi-core CPUs continue their progression? As always, single newer machines become capable of replacing multiple older machines. At what point in the future does the equivalent storage, processing, and transactional volume capabilities of an entire datacenter of today fit into a single server room tomorrow? A single rack? A single 1U server? A single VPS instance? In the not too distance future the ability to host applications like facebook that serve hundreds of millions or even billions of users will be just a click away and cheap enough to fall under the "ramen profitability" umbrella. Giant, billion user apps will be the viral videos of tomorrow. Companies will grow to enormous sizes not in a matter of years or months but in a matter of days, or hours. What happens when your billion dollar, thousand dev. corporation has serious competition in the form of a 5 person startup?
- dman 16y ago
  On some level heroku , amazon cloud etc achieve exactly the kind of equality you talk about. On the other hand our ability to create data might outpace moores law and might hence required continued usage of data centers.
notahacker 16y ago
Developing products with practical value. Early Facebook was a great little tool for keeping in touch with friends and getting invited to parties. They could have built on that aspect and made something useful. Instead they decided to encourage the kind of spam that generates page impressions that sell ads like a media company... Lucky they're full of clever people, I guess.

What is Rich Facebook going to overlook?

mixmax 16y ago

In a few years it will be glaringly obvious.

mortenjorck 16y ago
My current guess is that Tumblr is going to figure out the real potential of their "reblogging" system sometime in the next 18 months and whatever strange new beast that has become will make "liking" look like using an AOL keyword.
wolfhumble 16y ago
It is easy to be a general AFTER the war.

kingkilr 16y ago

Dunno, but if I find out it's certainly not going in a blog post ;)

mkramlich 16y ago

It could have been Diaspora but the Diaspora team made such a big public splash and have so many eyeballs now I'm not so sure. Surely somebody at the top of Facebook has got to be looking at that Kickstarter pledge level of $200k and thinking, "Uh, Mark? We have to talk..."

mingdingo 16y ago
I really don't think Diaspora was ever on their radar. They'll have far more credible threats in the future.
- zumda 16y ago
  Mark Zuckerberg actually donated to Diaspora: http://www.wired.com/epicenter/2010/05/zuckerberg-interview/ http://www.wired.com/epicenter/2010/05/zuckerberg-interview/

InclinedPlane 16y ago

Facebook overlooks the fact that lock-in is nearly meaningless on the web, so you can't treat your user base as a given. eBay is ignoring this. Myspace ignored this and they're nearly irrelevant now. Companies are growing to the multi-billion dollar mark faster than ever. That trend will only continue as technological advances continue. What will happen in the near future as SSDs get better, larger, and cheaper? What will happen as multi-core CPUs continue their progression? As always, single newer machines become capable of replacing multiple older machines. At what point in the future does the equivalent storage, processing, and transactional volume capabilities of an entire datacenter of today fit into a single server room tomorrow? A single rack? A single 1U server? A single VPS instance? In the not too distance future the ability to host applications like facebook that serve hundreds of millions or even billions of users will be just a click away and cheap enough to fall under the "ramen profitability" umbrella. Giant, billion user apps will be the viral videos of tomorrow. Companies will grow to enormous sizes not in a matter of years or months but in a matter of days, or hours. What happens when your billion dollar, thousand dev. corporation has serious competition in the form of a 5 person startup?

dman 16y ago
On some level heroku , amazon cloud etc achieve exactly the kind of equality you talk about. On the other hand our ability to create data might outpace moores law and might hence required continued usage of data centers.

notahacker 16y ago

Developing products with practical value. Early Facebook was a great little tool for keeping in touch with friends and getting invited to parties. They could have built on that aspect and made something useful. Instead they decided to encourage the kind of spam that generates page impressions that sell ads like a media company... Lucky they're full of clever people, I guess.