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This is good to hear. A few weeks ago we saw the recording breaking loss, showing Uber is really undercutting everyone and operating way under costs (while slas

This is good to hear. A few weeks ago we saw the recording breaking loss, showing Uber is really undercutting everyone and operating way under costs (while slashing drivers pays and yada yada). Uber is big, really big. But I don't think it's too big to fail. And I think a failure will be colossal. Has anyone noticed Lyft prices have gone way up? Like, almost standard cab fair prices in some cities? I wonder if Lyft is banking on the fact a lot of people use them so they don't use Uber, and noticing their prices are just slightly less than a regular cab. They could put them in a place where they're profitable, and charge a more traditional rate. In the early days I knew Uber drivers who use to be cab drivers who claimed they made a ton more money than with their cab company. I doubt that's as true anymore, but once Uber fails, I bet we'll see a huge re-emergence of Cabs -- possibly alternative ride sharing apps that will put more money in the hands of drivers (where it should be). It's really weird being in American cities today, because the number of cabs is significantly lower and noticeable. I saw a woman with her hand up, actually hailing a cab, and thought that was so weird. You rarely see that now. I mean it's probably better that cabs are more efficient with apps, going directly from pickup to pickup instead of burning fuel driving around, but there is still something lost with not being able to raise you hand or go to a taxi stand and get a cab in a city.

CaptainZapp 9y ago
I don't think it's too big to fail Please stop with this "too big to fail" nonsense. This is a pretty specific term for companies which pose a systemic risk if they fail. Notably that's mostly banks or other financial institutions who could drag an entire economy down if they go down. There's no systemic risk in Uber failing.
- schrodinger 9y ago
  I think that in this case, “too big to fail” would mean that investors would bail them out rather than let them go under.
  - erispoe 9y ago
    If they believe that the company will make money in the long-run. Otherwise it's just putting bad money after good. You can only bail out a company if you believe it will become profitable. You can't subsidize rides eternally, it does not make sense for investors.
    - schrodinger 9y ago
      Totally agreed, and I believe that’s what the commenter meant when saying that they aren’t too big to fail.
dguest 9y ago
> I don't think it's too big to fail. My gut reaction: There's no company the size of Uber that could die more quietly. The world's reaction would be a muffled "meh". Uber doesn't even own their most important asset, which is their drivers, and if they collapse catastrophically their drivers will simply turn off the Uber app and download one of a half dozen competitors' apps (if they don't already have it). For Uber customers, the transition will be even easier. Maybe I'm missing something: This isn't like a car company that owns and manages factories, or like a tech company that has labs or does significant R&D, or even a bank that has lots of employees and owns other assets. So genuine question: what do we loose if Uber vanishes tomorrow? (Don't get me wrong, I'd be sympathetic to their employees who need to find new jobs, but my guess is that their skills are in relatively high demand.)
- beberlei 9y ago
  it could have a massive effect on tech valuations in general. so from a real economy perspective you may be right, but the stock market and VC market might start to see this as an event to re-evaluate everything.
  - te_chris 9y ago
    An event they would entirely deserve, if that's the case.
    - TeMPOraL 9y ago
      And it would be a gain for the society, too - because currently it seems the more absurd a valuation is, the more there is something wrong with a company - either it's doing useless crap, antisocial crap, or behaving immorally while doing something potentially useful. I would love to see the valuations go down, to reduce the incentives for smart people to grow harmful businesses.
  - xxs 9y ago
    "...but the stock market and VC market might start to see this as an event to re-evaluate everything" You are saying it as it is a bad thing.
astrosi 9y ago
> In the early days I knew Uber drivers who use to be cab drivers who claimed they made a ton more money than with their cab company. I doubt that's as true anymore As (one piece of anecdotal) evidence, I was talking with a guy that drives for both Uber and a local cab company. The cab company pays more, but he still prefers driving for Uber as he is put in far fewer sketchy situations by them.
- majewsky 9y ago
  Define "sketchy situations", please.
  - BrandonM 9y ago
    Cab driving is one of the most dangerous jobs in the US.
    - majewsky 9y ago
      That's not helping. I live in Germany, and I have a friend who worked as a cab driver on the side for a year. May only be a small sample, but I didn't hear any dangerous or sketchy stories from them. But then again, that's Germany, which has (among other things) gun laws that are not a joke.
      - ecnahc515 9y ago
        Cab drivers are frequented targets of robbery and also typically pick up people late at night and when there’s less people around to witness.
- yomly 9y ago
  From my Uber conversations I was able to piece together that one of the sweetest benefits was that you could be paid instantly for your work, equivalent to cash in hand rather than waiting up to a month for a payslip. The other was that 2-3 years ago one Uber driver claimed he was grossing up to £7000 a month working 16 hours a day 7 days a week.
misun78 9y ago
[Disclaimer: Uber employee] Unfortunately for your argument, if there is one thing to deduce from Uber's year of hell, it's that Uber's not going anywhere. I could list around 50 groundbreaking events this year, each of which in itself could have taken a relatively young company like Uber down. Instead, Uber GREW 17% in ONE quarter let alone slow down - http://www.businessinsider.com/ubers-losses-grow-in-q3-but-bookings-rise-2017-12 http://www.businessinsider.com/ubers-losses-grow-in-q3-but-b... You could attribute this growth to artificially reduced prices but that's incorrect. The price reduction comes from competition with other ride-sharing (Ola, Lyft, Grab etc) over an ever-increasing pie, not against existing taxi options. This is evident from mature markets like New York where prices are stable and yet growth is strong. Hence, outside the realms of people wanting to protect existing taxi options + users turned off from Uber's scandals, Uber isn't too big to fail due to government or VC protections but it's simply too valuable to far too many users for it to fail. These users include: 1. For drivers that fall in the full-time category, it's significantly better than old taxi options that forced expensive medallions, fees for the privilege of working that causes them to not even break-even on days, and ultra-long shifts. It's sad to see my fellow HN'ers yearning for such a regressive and exploitative cartel-driven taxi system. For more context, read https://priceonomics.com/post/47636506327/the-tyranny-of-the-taxi-medallions https://priceonomics.com/post/47636506327/the-tyranny-of-the... before romanticizing an old system out of spite for a large tech company. 2. For part-time drivers, it provides opportunities that simply did not exist before. Earning $x dollars an hour during idle time is such a powerful force that it can alleviate macro-level recessionary pains. See https://www.timeslive.co.za/sunday-times/business/2017-12-03-inside-ubers-financial-boom-for-sa/ https://www.timeslive.co.za/sunday-times/business/2017-12-03.... 3. For users, it's essentially a daily-used verb at this point. It's unfortunate and sad that this value add is overshadowed by a never ending list of scandals but Uber is planning on owning up and creating positive change going forward. I wouldn't be there if it were not the case. Best I can do for now is help HN understand the value Uber provides and the company changes will slowly and surely fall into place.

CaptainZapp 9y ago

I don't think it's too big to fail Please stop with this "too big to fail" nonsense. This is a pretty specific term for companies which pose a systemic risk if they fail. Notably that's mostly banks or other financial institutions who could drag an entire economy down if they go down. There's no systemic risk in Uber failing.

schrodinger 9y ago
I think that in this case, “too big to fail” would mean that investors would bail them out rather than let them go under.
- erispoe 9y ago
  If they believe that the company will make money in the long-run. Otherwise it's just putting bad money after good. You can only bail out a company if you believe it will become profitable. You can't subsidize rides eternally, it does not make sense for investors.
  - schrodinger 9y ago
    Totally agreed, and I believe that’s what the commenter meant when saying that they aren’t too big to fail.

dguest 9y ago

> I don't think it's too big to fail. My gut reaction: There's no company the size of Uber that could die more quietly. The world's reaction would be a muffled "meh". Uber doesn't even own their most important asset, which is their drivers, and if they collapse catastrophically their drivers will simply turn off the Uber app and download one of a half dozen competitors' apps (if they don't already have it). For Uber customers, the transition will be even easier. Maybe I'm missing something: This isn't like a car company that owns and manages factories, or like a tech company that has labs or does significant R&D, or even a bank that has lots of employees and owns other assets. So genuine question: what do we loose if Uber vanishes tomorrow? (Don't get me wrong, I'd be sympathetic to their employees who need to find new jobs, but my guess is that their skills are in relatively high demand.)

beberlei 9y ago
it could have a massive effect on tech valuations in general. so from a real economy perspective you may be right, but the stock market and VC market might start to see this as an event to re-evaluate everything.
- te_chris 9y ago
  An event they would entirely deserve, if that's the case.
  - TeMPOraL 9y ago
    And it would be a gain for the society, too - because currently it seems the more absurd a valuation is, the more there is something wrong with a company - either it's doing useless crap, antisocial crap, or behaving immorally while doing something potentially useful. I would love to see the valuations go down, to reduce the incentives for smart people to grow harmful businesses.
- xxs 9y ago
  "...but the stock market and VC market might start to see this as an event to re-evaluate everything" You are saying it as it is a bad thing.

astrosi 9y ago

> In the early days I knew Uber drivers who use to be cab drivers who claimed they made a ton more money than with their cab company. I doubt that's as true anymore As (one piece of anecdotal) evidence, I was talking with a guy that drives for both Uber and a local cab company. The cab company pays more, but he still prefers driving for Uber as he is put in far fewer sketchy situations by them.

majewsky 9y ago
Define "sketchy situations", please.
- BrandonM 9y ago
  Cab driving is one of the most dangerous jobs in the US.
  - majewsky 9y ago
    That's not helping. I live in Germany, and I have a friend who worked as a cab driver on the side for a year. May only be a small sample, but I didn't hear any dangerous or sketchy stories from them. But then again, that's Germany, which has (among other things) gun laws that are not a joke.
    - ecnahc515 9y ago
      Cab drivers are frequented targets of robbery and also typically pick up people late at night and when there’s less people around to witness.
yomly 9y ago
From my Uber conversations I was able to piece together that one of the sweetest benefits was that you could be paid instantly for your work, equivalent to cash in hand rather than waiting up to a month for a payslip. The other was that 2-3 years ago one Uber driver claimed he was grossing up to £7000 a month working 16 hours a day 7 days a week.

misun78 9y ago

[Disclaimer: Uber employee] Unfortunately for your argument, if there is one thing to deduce from Uber's year of hell, it's that Uber's not going anywhere. I could list around 50 groundbreaking events this year, each of which in itself could have taken a relatively young company like Uber down. Instead, Uber GREW 17% in ONE quarter let alone slow down - http://www.businessinsider.com/ubers-losses-grow-in-q3-but-bookings-rise-2017-12 http://www.businessinsider.com/ubers-losses-grow-in-q3-but-b... You could attribute this growth to artificially reduced prices but that's incorrect. The price reduction comes from competition with other ride-sharing (Ola, Lyft, Grab etc) over an ever-increasing pie, not against existing taxi options. This is evident from mature markets like New York where prices are stable and yet growth is strong. Hence, outside the realms of people wanting to protect existing taxi options + users turned off from Uber's scandals, Uber isn't too big to fail due to government or VC protections but it's simply too valuable to far too many users for it to fail. These users include: 1. For drivers that fall in the full-time category, it's significantly better than old taxi options that forced expensive medallions, fees for the privilege of working that causes them to not even break-even on days, and ultra-long shifts. It's sad to see my fellow HN'ers yearning for such a regressive and exploitative cartel-driven taxi system. For more context, read https://priceonomics.com/post/47636506327/the-tyranny-of-the-taxi-medallions https://priceonomics.com/post/47636506327/the-tyranny-of-the... before romanticizing an old system out of spite for a large tech company. 2. For part-time drivers, it provides opportunities that simply did not exist before. Earning $x dollars an hour during idle time is such a powerful force that it can alleviate macro-level recessionary pains. See https://www.timeslive.co.za/sunday-times/business/2017-12-03-inside-ubers-financial-boom-for-sa/ https://www.timeslive.co.za/sunday-times/business/2017-12-03.... 3. For users, it's essentially a daily-used verb at this point. It's unfortunate and sad that this value add is overshadowed by a never ending list of scandals but Uber is planning on owning up and creating positive change going forward. I wouldn't be there if it were not the case. Best I can do for now is help HN understand the value Uber provides and the company changes will slowly and surely fall into place.