4 ms·
One of the eye openers for me in this was the average ranges, 475 miles vs 190. ICE cars have 2.5x the range of electric cars. I always assumed it was much mor
by icc97 9y ago
One of the eye openers for me in this was the average ranges, 475 miles vs 190.
ICE cars have 2.5x the range of electric cars. I always assumed it was much more e.g. 800 miles vs 100 miles.
According to this graph [0] the price per kWh of batteries is halving every 5 years, so within ~6-7 years the range of electric cars will be equal to that of ICE cars.
[0]: https://cleantechnica.com/2016/05/15/ev-battery-prices-looking-back-years-forward-yet/ https://cleantechnica.com/2016/05/15/ev-battery-prices-looki...
- JoeAltmaier 9y agoWrong metric. Its kWh / kg (not price) that matters for transportation. Until we get metal-air batteries that's not going to change much.
- icc97 9y agoYou're right that's better, but it doesn't completely invalidate my prediction, it just means I might be out a bit with the time. Battery kWh / kg is also improving too, I just don't know if it's at the same rate as price. Its possible now with Teslas to buy the higher kWh batteries and they go further, so it's not like weight is the only factor. The new Tesla Roadster coming in 2020 [0] has a 620 mile range because it's basically a battery and little else. So it depends on: 1. how much the extra weight/drag of a model 3 chassis would reduce the range 2. how much of the $200,000 price is down to the battery. Then you are waiting until the price of the battery comes down. [0]: https://www.tesla.com/roadster https://www.tesla.com/roadster
- JoeAltmaier 9y agoLike rockets, there a point of diminishing returns where you have to have some battery to push the other batteries around, which push the car around. Its kWh/kg that's king.