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tl;dr - Existing technology will be pushed to the limits first. There are lots of new technologies currently being researched, but it's not obvious which will t
by peterburkimsher 9y ago
tl;dr - Existing technology will be pushed to the limits first. There are lots of new technologies currently being researched, but it's not obvious which will take over. New ideas will "scale over the next 10 years", not over the next 5 years.
Moore's law is not ending because of physical limits. It's slowing down because we don't know which option to pursue.
We are currently at 10 nm [1]. After that is 7 nm (2018), then 5 nm (2020), then 3 nm.
FinFETs will be used at 5 nm. Another technology might come at 3 nm, or later.
3D NAND memory is currently stacked at 48 layers. It will be increased to 96, 128, maybe even 256 layers. The challenge is to keep thin wafers flat when stacking them on top of each other.
DRAM will be around for a while. There are new ideas such as MRAM and XPoint, but DRAM is faster and lasts longer.
Personal addition: Existing technology will get us 2TB SDXC cards. After that we'll need a new industry standard for larger cards.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/10_nanometer https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/10_nanometer
- jacquesm 9y ago> Existing technology will get us 2TB SDXC cards. Which is an incredible thing in and of itself.
- narrator 9y agoThat schedule is optimistic given recent trends. Intel has been stuck at 14nm process technology for almost 4 years now and everyone else has caught up.
- peterburkimsher 9y agoThe market's pretty harsh to those who don't catch up. Apple's already started making their own A-series chips. Intel will most likely get their act together soon, or pivot out of the market and move into services like IBM did. In "The Next 5 Years" though, I think Intel will still be around, and hopefully catch up with the silicon.