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Continuous QE spilled in everything else, assets, stocks, latest is crypto. At some point, math kicks in and it will have to reset. Coincidentally, why else d

Continuous QE spilled in everything else, assets, stocks, latest is crypto. At some point, math kicks in and it will have to reset. Coincidentally, why else do you think Trump is trying to bring everything back home? Note: I am not from the USA and am not trying to start a political argument here. It's merely a macroeconomy observation.

winslow 9y ago
Could you expand on your thoughts for Trump trying to bring everything back home? Genuinely curious what your thoughts are and not from a political stand point :) Thanks.
- quickben 9y ago
  Sure. Keep in mind I'm not an expert. I also have to write some assumptions first, I apologize for the length. There are ups and downs. The bigger the up, the uglier the down (1999 vs 2007).Money gets flooded and scooped (interest rates are as much proactive as reactive). Inflation is aimed at 2-3% because that's what people ignore but it keeps this fable called money going for all (rich get richer, the poor get regular inflation based raises, all is happy). Credit cycles are a thing, but can be extended by injecting money in the system (as long as nobody objects, inflation is near 3%, and interest rates are reasonable). Bailouts work up to an extent, at some point (because I can't draw charts) the math catches up, and heavily QE will become worthless, this risking inflation or deflation. No matter the outcome, one or the other must happen, or like the Bank of Japan, the government starts buying bonds and stocks with it just to keep the pretense money are still worth something. Based on the above (and I'm aware the story is longer and somewhat with more details) USA has a way to go for a complete endgame. However, the money flooded so far in the system, are bigger than ever, and the next down will be probably more ugly than ever. So, when it's ugly it's somewhat benefitial if people can get some sort of jobs. With all the assumptions from above, and it really doesn't look like from here that Trump came with the idea (he would be boasting). He's doing what any sane central bank will do. So he's told what to do, and believes it's overall the right thing. - Make sure outsourced jobs vanish. It will cost businesses now, but maybe if they get awesome tax cut, they won't complain. - NAFTA will probably go away, Americans will get to do stuff that free trade did. If employment on domestic grounds is good (and not in the service industry, but factories and stuff), when it gets bad, people (or a bigger fraction of them) will have jobs, compared to if the service sector is doing great now. - Based on the continuous QE volume, the next credit cycle will be the worst. - If I had to guess, tech stocks will crater the worst. So all related tech visas will also go. - He repealed Obama care, because in a recessions, most people won't have health care, but won't pay penalties. Not having it, is horible, but the population seems somewhat adjusted to the idea of not having health care ( and a revolution hasn't started over that so far, so they can do that). Related reading: USA losing the Petro dollar. Bitcoin being worse than the tech stocks and cratering more. China bonds being risky right now. That report from IBS (October?) where they wrote that china/India are fully integrated in the world labour and main growth stopped, wages will restart going up after two decades. Upcoming Australia's housing crash (because resource export stalled, and other factors). Interest rates raising again, so other overextended housing markets will get corrected (starting with Canada, UK, Sweden). The world economy is complex and it's all fluid all the time, but at this point, this how it looks to me. Apologies for the length.
  - winslow 9y ago
    I'm very grateful you took the time to respond especially in such great length. Don't apologize for the length this is the exactly what I was hoping for! Sometimes it's good to get a completely different view on things as the rhetoric within the US has been quite negative towards Trump (potentially well deserved) without much discussion around the quantitative easing etc but rather just tax cuts for corporations etc.
- craftyguy 9y ago
  It gets him votes, part of the "make 'merica great again" propaganda. In other news, he and his relatives will continue to outsource where ever they can.
  - stevenwoo 9y ago
    The tax bill ironically appears to encourage outsourcing by any company big enough to do it by making the minimum corporate rate 10 percent (theoretically to encourage Apple to bring billions home) in certain circumstances and letting companies average their income/taxes over all offshore affiliates. http://theweek.com/articles/743632/gop-tax-bills-biggest-boondoggles http://theweek.com/articles/743632/gop-tax-bills-biggest-boo...
  - coderdude 9y ago
    I picture you hitting reply, leaning back in your computer chair thinking, "that oughta open their eyes."
  - winslow 9y ago
    I realize you aren't OP but I do understand the "making America great again" getting him votes by saying he's bringing back jobs. However, that's a political response that deflects from the real issues at hand. What I am curious about is the quantitative easing we witnessed due to the 2008 Financial & Housing crisis and how that is being handled both in the economy and the governments around the world. The Fed interest rate is still at a historic low having just recently bumped to 1.5% [1]. For instance one of the view points I've heard is that Trump is trying to deregulate as much as possible in order to avoid the economy crashing. Maybe that a makes a correction from QE worse in the future. Maybe Trump is indeed just trying to siphon as much money/tax breaks as possible but I'm curious about the macro economics currently in play from different world viewpoints. [1] - https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/interest-rate https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/interest-rate
    - quickben 9y ago
      The developed world mostly started following USA with QE+bailout based currency supply policy. Now that USA is playing a different game the rest will probably follow that too. It's just that the USA is ahead of the game again.
tehlike 9y ago
Even in case of bubble, the market seems to take a temporary hit and rise even stronger.
- quickben 9y ago
  Yes. Only 20-40% of investments, chunk of the stock market based pension, and several years or decades of ones sweat. It will rise stronger if you are in your 20s-40s, not if you are 60+ and planning to retire.
  - tehlike 9y ago
    Fair point
sremani 9y ago
Crypto is not 'Murican bubble, its global to an extent, and has massive footprint in Europe and Asia (esp. East Asia).
- quickben 9y ago
  So, since nothing backs the deflatory currency being traded as an actually appreciating asset, it will be a global loss. Mostly to the dumb money entering late to the game.

winslow 9y ago

Could you expand on your thoughts for Trump trying to bring everything back home? Genuinely curious what your thoughts are and not from a political stand point :) Thanks.

quickben 9y ago
Sure. Keep in mind I'm not an expert. I also have to write some assumptions first, I apologize for the length. There are ups and downs. The bigger the up, the uglier the down (1999 vs 2007).Money gets flooded and scooped (interest rates are as much proactive as reactive). Inflation is aimed at 2-3% because that's what people ignore but it keeps this fable called money going for all (rich get richer, the poor get regular inflation based raises, all is happy). Credit cycles are a thing, but can be extended by injecting money in the system (as long as nobody objects, inflation is near 3%, and interest rates are reasonable). Bailouts work up to an extent, at some point (because I can't draw charts) the math catches up, and heavily QE will become worthless, this risking inflation or deflation. No matter the outcome, one or the other must happen, or like the Bank of Japan, the government starts buying bonds and stocks with it just to keep the pretense money are still worth something. Based on the above (and I'm aware the story is longer and somewhat with more details) USA has a way to go for a complete endgame. However, the money flooded so far in the system, are bigger than ever, and the next down will be probably more ugly than ever. So, when it's ugly it's somewhat benefitial if people can get some sort of jobs. With all the assumptions from above, and it really doesn't look like from here that Trump came with the idea (he would be boasting). He's doing what any sane central bank will do. So he's told what to do, and believes it's overall the right thing. - Make sure outsourced jobs vanish. It will cost businesses now, but maybe if they get awesome tax cut, they won't complain. - NAFTA will probably go away, Americans will get to do stuff that free trade did. If employment on domestic grounds is good (and not in the service industry, but factories and stuff), when it gets bad, people (or a bigger fraction of them) will have jobs, compared to if the service sector is doing great now. - Based on the continuous QE volume, the next credit cycle will be the worst. - If I had to guess, tech stocks will crater the worst. So all related tech visas will also go. - He repealed Obama care, because in a recessions, most people won't have health care, but won't pay penalties. Not having it, is horible, but the population seems somewhat adjusted to the idea of not having health care ( and a revolution hasn't started over that so far, so they can do that). Related reading: USA losing the Petro dollar. Bitcoin being worse than the tech stocks and cratering more. China bonds being risky right now. That report from IBS (October?) where they wrote that china/India are fully integrated in the world labour and main growth stopped, wages will restart going up after two decades. Upcoming Australia's housing crash (because resource export stalled, and other factors). Interest rates raising again, so other overextended housing markets will get corrected (starting with Canada, UK, Sweden). The world economy is complex and it's all fluid all the time, but at this point, this how it looks to me. Apologies for the length.
- winslow 9y ago
  I'm very grateful you took the time to respond especially in such great length. Don't apologize for the length this is the exactly what I was hoping for! Sometimes it's good to get a completely different view on things as the rhetoric within the US has been quite negative towards Trump (potentially well deserved) without much discussion around the quantitative easing etc but rather just tax cuts for corporations etc.
craftyguy 9y ago
It gets him votes, part of the "make 'merica great again" propaganda. In other news, he and his relatives will continue to outsource where ever they can.
- stevenwoo 9y ago
  The tax bill ironically appears to encourage outsourcing by any company big enough to do it by making the minimum corporate rate 10 percent (theoretically to encourage Apple to bring billions home) in certain circumstances and letting companies average their income/taxes over all offshore affiliates. http://theweek.com/articles/743632/gop-tax-bills-biggest-boondoggles http://theweek.com/articles/743632/gop-tax-bills-biggest-boo...
- coderdude 9y ago
  I picture you hitting reply, leaning back in your computer chair thinking, "that oughta open their eyes."
- winslow 9y ago
  I realize you aren't OP but I do understand the "making America great again" getting him votes by saying he's bringing back jobs. However, that's a political response that deflects from the real issues at hand. What I am curious about is the quantitative easing we witnessed due to the 2008 Financial & Housing crisis and how that is being handled both in the economy and the governments around the world. The Fed interest rate is still at a historic low having just recently bumped to 1.5% [1]. For instance one of the view points I've heard is that Trump is trying to deregulate as much as possible in order to avoid the economy crashing. Maybe that a makes a correction from QE worse in the future. Maybe Trump is indeed just trying to siphon as much money/tax breaks as possible but I'm curious about the macro economics currently in play from different world viewpoints. [1] - https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/interest-rate https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/interest-rate
  - quickben 9y ago
    The developed world mostly started following USA with QE+bailout based currency supply policy. Now that USA is playing a different game the rest will probably follow that too. It's just that the USA is ahead of the game again.

tehlike 9y ago

Even in case of bubble, the market seems to take a temporary hit and rise even stronger.

quickben 9y ago
Yes. Only 20-40% of investments, chunk of the stock market based pension, and several years or decades of ones sweat. It will rise stronger if you are in your 20s-40s, not if you are 60+ and planning to retire.
- tehlike 9y ago
  Fair point

sremani 9y ago

Crypto is not 'Murican bubble, its global to an extent, and has massive footprint in Europe and Asia (esp. East Asia).

quickben 9y ago
So, since nothing backs the deflatory currency being traded as an actually appreciating asset, it will be a global loss. Mostly to the dumb money entering late to the game.