Unfortunately I agree. I strongly suspect investors exhibit survivor bias, and assume causation where there is none. That's not to say it's all luck, or that th

Unfortunately I agree. I strongly suspect investors exhibit survivor bias, and assume causation where there is none. That's not to say it's all luck, or that they're dumb. Instead I feel they're simply unconsciously expert: they don't actually know what makes them good at what they do. Asking them how they do it elicits guesses. The fact that the guesses all sound the same suggests that either they're true, or there's an echo-chamber. There was a link posted here some months ago where an investor gave a frank account of how hard it is to invest, and how frequently he made terrible decisions and got burned, how time consuming it was, and so on. I think he actually said "don't become an investor if you want to make money, do it because you want to help people". Shame I can't find it now.