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There are a lot more great teams than billion dollar ideas. I wrote an essay on this topic a few years ago [0]. 0. https://www.tillett.info/2015/12/18/executio

There are a lot more great teams than billion dollar ideas. I wrote an essay on this topic a few years ago [0]. 0. https://www.tillett.info/2015/12/18/execution-is-just-the-multiplier-of-ideas/ https://www.tillett.info/2015/12/18/execution-is-just-the-mu...

scardine 9y ago
Ideas are always priced in hindsight - you can't say it is a billion dollar idea until a business is built around it. For all practical purposes there are no billion dollar ideas, just billion dollar business.
- danieltillett 9y ago
  Yes, of course an idea is only a billion dollar idea once it is built out, but a good team is also only determined in hindsight too. More importantly, while some ideas have the potential to be billion dollar ideas, most don't. The ideas that have a reasonable chance of being billion dollar ideas are very rare, much rarer than teams that have the same potential.
ikeboy 9y ago
There are roughly 2000 existing companies with over a billion in sales. That should mean, within an order of magnitude, there are thousands of billion dollar ideas/potential businesses. Are there more than a thousand teams capable of executing on a billion dollar idea? Is this the wrong way to evaluate the space of ideas?
- danieltillett 9y ago
  Well most of those 2000 companies are not doing exactly what they set out to do and/or are doing a lot more than one idea. Yes there are far more than a few thousand good teams out there in the whole world.
  - ikeboy 9y ago
    As a first cut, "copy X's business model" for some company on the list is a proven billion dollar idea (whether it's possible to do as a startup is another story, but this is order of magnitude anyway.)
    - danieltillett 9y ago
      I can't think of any startup that has become a billion dollar company by copying the business model of an existing billion dollar company. Targeting the markets and customers of existing billion dollar companies is often a good idea, but you need to have something new to succeed.
      - ikeboy 9y ago
        Lyft? Vox Media? DraftKings? Oscar? Honest Company? Wish? All are billion dollar companies founded in the last several years, and none have new business models, as far as I know. They may have small tweaks, but no two companies are identical - I think it's fair to say most of these companies simply copied a business model and executed very well. You can probably quibble with some of those, but not all.
        danieltillett 9y ago
        I think we can rule out lyft given how much money they lost last year, but more importantly because they started out as a long distance ride sharing business (zimride in 2007). Vox media started out as a sports blog in 2005. I don't think there were any billion dollar fantasy sport companies back in 2012 when Draftkings started. Oscar and Wish I am not sure as they are impossible to search for. I am not sure which billion dollar company The Honest Company copied. Sure you can grow into a billion dollar company by copying the model of an existing large company, but I don't know of any startups that have grown to a billion dollar by starting out just copying an existing billion dollar company's model without bring something new to the table.
        9y ago

scardine 9y ago

Ideas are always priced in hindsight - you can't say it is a billion dollar idea until a business is built around it. For all practical purposes there are no billion dollar ideas, just billion dollar business.

danieltillett 9y ago
Yes, of course an idea is only a billion dollar idea once it is built out, but a good team is also only determined in hindsight too. More importantly, while some ideas have the potential to be billion dollar ideas, most don't. The ideas that have a reasonable chance of being billion dollar ideas are very rare, much rarer than teams that have the same potential.

ikeboy 9y ago

There are roughly 2000 existing companies with over a billion in sales. That should mean, within an order of magnitude, there are thousands of billion dollar ideas/potential businesses. Are there more than a thousand teams capable of executing on a billion dollar idea? Is this the wrong way to evaluate the space of ideas?

danieltillett 9y ago
Well most of those 2000 companies are not doing exactly what they set out to do and/or are doing a lot more than one idea. Yes there are far more than a few thousand good teams out there in the whole world.
- ikeboy 9y ago
  As a first cut, "copy X's business model" for some company on the list is a proven billion dollar idea (whether it's possible to do as a startup is another story, but this is order of magnitude anyway.)
  - danieltillett 9y ago
    I can't think of any startup that has become a billion dollar company by copying the business model of an existing billion dollar company. Targeting the markets and customers of existing billion dollar companies is often a good idea, but you need to have something new to succeed.
    - ikeboy 9y ago
      Lyft? Vox Media? DraftKings? Oscar? Honest Company? Wish? All are billion dollar companies founded in the last several years, and none have new business models, as far as I know. They may have small tweaks, but no two companies are identical - I think it's fair to say most of these companies simply copied a business model and executed very well. You can probably quibble with some of those, but not all.
      - danieltillett 9y ago
        I think we can rule out lyft given how much money they lost last year, but more importantly because they started out as a long distance ride sharing business (zimride in 2007). Vox media started out as a sports blog in 2005. I don't think there were any billion dollar fantasy sport companies back in 2012 when Draftkings started. Oscar and Wish I am not sure as they are impossible to search for. I am not sure which billion dollar company The Honest Company copied. Sure you can grow into a billion dollar company by copying the model of an existing large company, but I don't know of any startups that have grown to a billion dollar by starting out just copying an existing billion dollar company's model without bring something new to the table.
        9y ago