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I have a long-bet that Uber will be out of business by August 2020. A friend and I have a decent bottle of wine (Grange Hermitage) riding on the outcome. And wi

I have a long-bet that Uber will be out of business by August 2020. A friend and I have a decent bottle of wine (Grange Hermitage) riding on the outcome. And with every passing month I feel more and more confident! It's obviously possible they'll limp through the deadline, or sell some assets like the brand. But I want to believe a company driven by ethics this bad from the top down, and which loses this much money month on month, can't survive. Bring on the fragmented second-movers in the space.

nikcub 9y ago
Has a company ever gone bankrupt due to bad ethics where it wasn't also a financial fraud? The core Uber business seems to still be doing well and resetting the taint of bad ethics is as easy as putting up a "under new management" sign - which what they've done
- tyingq 9y ago
  I don't think it's bankrupt, but the LiveStrong Foundation is a shell of it's former self due to the Lance Armstrong controversy.
- CaptainZapp 9y ago
  The core Uber business seems to still be doing well I wouldn't call a business, which loses billions "doing well".
joering2 9y ago
Risky bet. Majority of Uber users don't know what Hacker News is. Even less heard about negative press they getting. Don't even mention about these few that care so long as cheap ride fairly safe is provided to them.
- msmith10101 9y ago
  Revenue/user growth are irrelevant if your business model is to raise money for goods/services that cost you more money than you can charge from random users who have no brand loyalty. Uber's in a market in which there are no barriers to entry. It's a race to the bottom and waymo/lyft have better strategies thus far. (Lyft: raise less money at a reasonable valuation - stick with a crappy product in markets that actually matter, Waymo: Go fully autonomous using Google tech). Uber is the worst of both worlds. 2020 sounds reasonable to me after a snap-style IPO - Uber burns a lot more money than Snap :-) https://www.forbes.com/sites/lensherman/2017/12/14/why-cant-uber-make-money https://www.forbes.com/sites/lensherman/2017/12/14/why-cant-...
  - joering2 9y ago
    Who care about revenue or sales when you run the internet wave? /s Tell it is Instagram.. haven't generated single dime yet sold for billions. Google integrates Uber in their maps long time ago.. wouldn't be surprised they would want to buy it regardless of their financial situation.
fstuff 9y ago
I'm no uber fan but I don't see them ever going away. It may downsize or it may merge with a competitor but I don't see the uber app ever going away. Plus they have a lot of paper assets. 20% of Didi is 10B alone. And they have a piece of that Russian company. Also who knows how much all that user data is worth. It seems they have more assets than just cash on hand. I think they'll end up merging with a competitor and operating in the US under the uber brand. Or they'll sell of those assets, and scale way back and hope to partner someone with a working self driving.

nikcub 9y ago

Has a company ever gone bankrupt due to bad ethics where it wasn't also a financial fraud? The core Uber business seems to still be doing well and resetting the taint of bad ethics is as easy as putting up a "under new management" sign - which what they've done

tyingq 9y ago
I don't think it's bankrupt, but the LiveStrong Foundation is a shell of it's former self due to the Lance Armstrong controversy.
CaptainZapp 9y ago
The core Uber business seems to still be doing well I wouldn't call a business, which loses billions "doing well".

joering2 9y ago

Risky bet. Majority of Uber users don't know what Hacker News is. Even less heard about negative press they getting. Don't even mention about these few that care so long as cheap ride fairly safe is provided to them.

msmith10101 9y ago
Revenue/user growth are irrelevant if your business model is to raise money for goods/services that cost you more money than you can charge from random users who have no brand loyalty. Uber's in a market in which there are no barriers to entry. It's a race to the bottom and waymo/lyft have better strategies thus far. (Lyft: raise less money at a reasonable valuation - stick with a crappy product in markets that actually matter, Waymo: Go fully autonomous using Google tech). Uber is the worst of both worlds. 2020 sounds reasonable to me after a snap-style IPO - Uber burns a lot more money than Snap :-) https://www.forbes.com/sites/lensherman/2017/12/14/why-cant-uber-make-money https://www.forbes.com/sites/lensherman/2017/12/14/why-cant-...
- joering2 9y ago
  Who care about revenue or sales when you run the internet wave? /s Tell it is Instagram.. haven't generated single dime yet sold for billions. Google integrates Uber in their maps long time ago.. wouldn't be surprised they would want to buy it regardless of their financial situation.

fstuff 9y ago

I'm no uber fan but I don't see them ever going away. It may downsize or it may merge with a competitor but I don't see the uber app ever going away. Plus they have a lot of paper assets. 20% of Didi is 10B alone. And they have a piece of that Russian company. Also who knows how much all that user data is worth. It seems they have more assets than just cash on hand. I think they'll end up merging with a competitor and operating in the US under the uber brand. Or they'll sell of those assets, and scale way back and hope to partner someone with a working self driving.