VC math dictates that they need roughly one 10x (or higher) company to make up for a couple of roughly break even companies and several companies in which no mo

VC math dictates that they need roughly one 10x (or higher) company to make up for a couple of roughly break even companies and several companies in which no money is returned. You can twist the nobs a bit to adjust returns, but ultimately the 10x and higher companies define the returns of pretty much every fund. The rest of the companies are just noise in terms of influence on ROI. Note that this is why VC is sort of a deal with the devil -- you need to be a 10Xer, or you rapidly become much less interesting. This article is just about the math of those returns that factor in things like dilution. Many people fail to account for this, and I have seen some spectacular failed estimates of YC returns when people somehow think that YC still owns 7% of a huge multi-round company. I don't really see this as a "lust for more" type of article.