3 ms·
I agree about equity exposure, low fees, and simple approaches like a three fund portfolio. Here is a slightly more sophisticated way to think about the percen
by jmulho 9y ago
I agree about equity exposure, low fees, and simple approaches like a three fund portfolio. Here is a slightly more sophisticated way to think about the percentage that should be in equities. One year from now, equities could be up 25% or down 50%. Twenty years from now, equities are likely to be up, likely to have outpaced inflation, and likely to have outperformed "safer" alternatives (money market funds, bond funds, etc.). If you have a $10,000 bill coming due in one year, and $10,000 in the bank, it would be risky to invest any of it in equities. If you have money to invest that you won't be forced to liquidate for 20 years (e.g. your 401k at age 40), then it is probably fine to start with 100% of in equities. The percentage should be based on when you might be forced to liquidate each available investment dollar. In many cases this will agree with the rule of thumb.
By equities I mean low cost equity ETFs (or index funds) that invest in broad indexes. I do not mean a portfolio of 10 to 30 stocks hand-picked by you or any fund manager. The hand-picked portfolio could be down 100% in 20 years, or in 1 year.
- dahdum 9y agoWe're on the same page mostly, but I think if forced liquidation is a real risk you should lower your equity % at the start to compensate. 100% at age 40 is overly aggressive, pretty sure you'd have better risk adjusted returns by including bonds in there from the start.
- njarboe 9y agoWith bonds at historic lows (negative interest rates have never seen since the beginning of money in ~600BC), I would not be so sure about that. What bonds would you invest in?
- dahdum 9y agoWe're also at record equity levels and low interest rates, but that can change really quickly. I only put them in there because a lot of MPT models say it's a good idea. I have LQD, JNK, and BNDX.