5 ms·

The first version of new and revolutionary technology rarely (if ever?) becomes the dominant one. Obvious examples are search (Altavista -> Google) and social n

by lawn 9y ago

The first version of new and revolutionary technology rarely (if ever?) becomes the dominant one. Obvious examples are search (Altavista -> Google) and social networks (MySpace -> Facebook).

down 9y ago
right MySpace, was a technology?, I think they were build on php or so, was a slow site, Google is not a technology either, golang it is, and is somehow revolutionary through simplicity and first-ish.
- RandomInteger4 9y ago
  Agreed! Bridges aren't technologies either, only rivets and steel beams! I keep telling people, but they just won't listen. Cars? Not a technology, only wheels and motors are technologies.
nlperguiy 9y ago
None of these technologies are dominant enough. Not a single one is a usable product. All cannot support a large number of transactions, not even those that do not have proof of work. There's research-level problems being solved (like bulletproofs for compact private transaction - hides amounts). After research is done there's engineering. Then testing until it is ready to use. People really don't realize how early this is. Lightning network, a proposed solution for Bitcoin scaling problem, was announced 2 years ago, and they identified many issues with it since then. There's talks of layer number 3 etc. This is way too early and there's no winner. Bunch of cryptocurrencies are riding on the research-wave behind Bitcoin.
Frogolocalypse 9y ago
Where is your second internet?
- ribosometronome 9y ago
  Are you posting on the ARPANET?
  - Frogolocalypse 9y ago
    I use email almost every day, yes. You realize the arpanet is the internet right? It wasn't replaced, it was expanded. Call it layers if that would make it easier to understand.
    - ribosometronome 9y ago
      ARPANET refers to a specific network that was decommissioned in 1990. And for 13 years of it's 21 years in existence, it was using NCP rather than TCP/IP.
      - Frogolocalypse 9y ago
        And the bitcoin node software i use today is version 0.15.1, not 0.8.0. The segwit block structure is different to the original implementation. One turned into the other. Nothing is stopping you running a 0.8.0 node of course. But the newer implementation has more functionality.
      - joeblau 9y ago
        I worked at BBN Technologies in the early 2000's. I was always amazed at how a company that essentially co-founded the internet and had the second domain name ever registered[1] could basically go out of business. You just made me think that Bitcoin could definitely be the ARPANET of blockchains and Core devs could be BBN. Don't get me wrong, I worked with some extremely smart people, but in the end, Raytheon bought the whole company. [1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_oldest_currently_registered_Internet_domain_names https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_oldest_currently_r...
        Frogolocalypse 9y ago
        The difference of course, is that bitcoin isn't a company. And the arpanet turned into the internet. But companies come and go. By your analogy, raytheon owns the internet.
- lawn 9y ago
  There's always the chance that you can evolve and improve upon the technology instead of something else coming to replace it. For bitpay's usecase Bitcoin is being replaced by other coins because it fails to embrace on-chain scaling in favor of off-chain scaling which is far from ready. This is exactly as predicted.
  - Frogolocalypse 9y ago
    Yep. If you want to get your transactions tracked by the chinese government, it is cheap. Like PayPal. If you want your transactions to be private, you use a decentralized blockchain like bitcoin.
    - lawn 9y ago
      I'm sorry but your continued comments in this thread are just play wrong. > If you want to get your transactions tracked by the chinese government That's such a stupid thing to say as with an open ledger everyone can track your transactions. > If you want your transactions to be private, you use a decentralized blockchain like bitcoin. You don't even know what a private transaction is. Bitcoin has an open ledger and all transactions are exactly as traceable.
      - Frogolocalypse 9y ago
        If you don't run your own node, which is the aim of bcash, your ip address is tied to your payment. You have the payment processor, and the node, and the miner, all sharing the same information. The chinese government appreciates your compliance with its crypto implementation.
xorcist 9y ago
Any next system is likely to be bootstrapped from Bitcoin. That's the crucial difference.
- bigpeopleareold 9y ago
  This is crucial in the midst of loose and fast comparisons between technologies in the past and what we have now. Can a piece of complicated software like Bitcoin be re-engineered from the ground up? Yes, certainly, but that is a tough road to take, I would think, if you want to do what Bitcoin does at its core. Bitcoin, the software, solves basic problems very well and is thus the basis of many altcoins. I'll invest in the next big coin if it is significantly better than Bitcoin while continuing to maintain Bitcoin's core value argument.

by lawn 9y ago

The first version of new and revolutionary technology rarely (if ever?) becomes the dominant one. Obvious examples are search (Altavista -> Google) and social networks (MySpace -> Facebook).

down 9y ago

right MySpace, was a technology?, I think they were build on php or so, was a slow site, Google is not a technology either, golang it is, and is somehow revolutionary through simplicity and first-ish.

RandomInteger4 9y ago
Agreed! Bridges aren't technologies either, only rivets and steel beams! I keep telling people, but they just won't listen. Cars? Not a technology, only wheels and motors are technologies.

nlperguiy 9y ago

None of these technologies are dominant enough. Not a single one is a usable product. All cannot support a large number of transactions, not even those that do not have proof of work. There's research-level problems being solved (like bulletproofs for compact private transaction - hides amounts). After research is done there's engineering. Then testing until it is ready to use. People really don't realize how early this is. Lightning network, a proposed solution for Bitcoin scaling problem, was announced 2 years ago, and they identified many issues with it since then. There's talks of layer number 3 etc. This is way too early and there's no winner. Bunch of cryptocurrencies are riding on the research-wave behind Bitcoin.

Frogolocalypse 9y ago

Where is your second internet?

ribosometronome 9y ago
Are you posting on the ARPANET?
- Frogolocalypse 9y ago
  I use email almost every day, yes. You realize the arpanet is the internet right? It wasn't replaced, it was expanded. Call it layers if that would make it easier to understand.
  - ribosometronome 9y ago
    ARPANET refers to a specific network that was decommissioned in 1990. And for 13 years of it's 21 years in existence, it was using NCP rather than TCP/IP.
    - Frogolocalypse 9y ago
      And the bitcoin node software i use today is version 0.15.1, not 0.8.0. The segwit block structure is different to the original implementation. One turned into the other. Nothing is stopping you running a 0.8.0 node of course. But the newer implementation has more functionality.
    - joeblau 9y ago
      I worked at BBN Technologies in the early 2000's. I was always amazed at how a company that essentially co-founded the internet and had the second domain name ever registered[1] could basically go out of business. You just made me think that Bitcoin could definitely be the ARPANET of blockchains and Core devs could be BBN. Don't get me wrong, I worked with some extremely smart people, but in the end, Raytheon bought the whole company. [1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_oldest_currently_registered_Internet_domain_names https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_oldest_currently_r...
      - Frogolocalypse 9y ago
        The difference of course, is that bitcoin isn't a company. And the arpanet turned into the internet. But companies come and go. By your analogy, raytheon owns the internet.
lawn 9y ago
There's always the chance that you can evolve and improve upon the technology instead of something else coming to replace it. For bitpay's usecase Bitcoin is being replaced by other coins because it fails to embrace on-chain scaling in favor of off-chain scaling which is far from ready. This is exactly as predicted.
- Frogolocalypse 9y ago
  Yep. If you want to get your transactions tracked by the chinese government, it is cheap. Like PayPal. If you want your transactions to be private, you use a decentralized blockchain like bitcoin.
  - lawn 9y ago
    I'm sorry but your continued comments in this thread are just play wrong. > If you want to get your transactions tracked by the chinese government That's such a stupid thing to say as with an open ledger everyone can track your transactions. > If you want your transactions to be private, you use a decentralized blockchain like bitcoin. You don't even know what a private transaction is. Bitcoin has an open ledger and all transactions are exactly as traceable.
    - Frogolocalypse 9y ago
      If you don't run your own node, which is the aim of bcash, your ip address is tied to your payment. You have the payment processor, and the node, and the miner, all sharing the same information. The chinese government appreciates your compliance with its crypto implementation.

xorcist 9y ago

Any next system is likely to be bootstrapped from Bitcoin. That's the crucial difference.

bigpeopleareold 9y ago
This is crucial in the midst of loose and fast comparisons between technologies in the past and what we have now. Can a piece of complicated software like Bitcoin be re-engineered from the ground up? Yes, certainly, but that is a tough road to take, I would think, if you want to do what Bitcoin does at its core. Bitcoin, the software, solves basic problems very well and is thus the basis of many altcoins. I'll invest in the next big coin if it is significantly better than Bitcoin while continuing to maintain Bitcoin's core value argument.