5 ms·

By this analysis, you can average between 5 and 15 more resources over the course of the game vs unloaded dice, and then goes on to show that there aren't enoug

by kd5bjo 9y ago

By this analysis, you can average between 5 and 15 more resources over the course of the game vs unloaded dice, and then goes on to show that there aren't enough dice rolls in a game to prove the dice are loaded. The problem here is that you don't get the expected number of resources in every game, and there's no analysis of the variance. I suspect that the result of insignificance is correct, in that this "cheat" provides such a slight advantage that it won't materially affect a single game. By the time you've played enough games to reliably use the advantage, your opponents will have seen enough die rolls to show their bias.

pc86 9y ago
> By the time you've played enough games to reliably use the advantage, your opponents will have seen enough die rolls to show their bias. I have a hard time believing that after 100 games someone would say "you know what, it appears to me that sixes have been rolled slightly more over the previous 100 games than I would expect" and an even harder time believing the next logical would be "you must have altered the dice!"
- adrianN 9y ago
  Looks like you only play boardgames with casuals.
  - pc86 9y ago
    That must be it :)
  - logfromblammo 9y ago
    If you're OP, you keep a running mental tally of other player's resource cards, so it is immediately obvious which rolls have been coming up more often than chance, and which ones have been coming up less. There are 21 different ways to load 2 dice with one weighted face each. Here's a table showing which rolls are advantaged or disadvantaged, according to which faces are weighted. 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 1,1 < < < < < < > > > > > 1,2 < < < < < = > > > > > 1,3 < < < < < = > > > > > 1,4 < < < < < = > > < > > 1,5 < < = = < = > = = < > 1,6 < = = = = > = = = = < 2,2 = < < < = < = > > > = 2,3 = < < < < = < > > > = <<< GOOD 2,4 = < = < > = > > = > = 2,5 = = < = = > = = < = = 3,3 = = < = > < > = > = = 3,4 = = = = < > < = = = = <<< BEST 4,4 = = > = > < > = < = = 5,2* = = < = = > = = < = = 5,3 = > = > > = > < = < = 5,4 = > > > < = < < < < = <<< GOOD 5,5 = > > > = < = < < < < 6,1* < = = = = > = = = = < 6,2 > < = = > = < = = < < 6,3 > > < > > = < < < < < 6,4 > > > > > = < < < < < 6,5 > > > > > = < < < < < 6,6 > > > > > < < < < < < * duplicated to show symmetry So for this game, I'd probably weight 3 and 4, to advantage 7s over 6s and 8s, and build more on the 5s and 9s. Most players that have no knowledge of the load of the dice will prefer to have at least one settlement on a 6 or 8. The 2,3 and 5,4 pairs also disadvantage 6 and 8, with bias for higher or lower numbers.
- deleted 9y ago
  [deleted]

by kd5bjo 9y ago

pc86 9y ago

> By the time you've played enough games to reliably use the advantage, your opponents will have seen enough die rolls to show their bias. I have a hard time believing that after 100 games someone would say "you know what, it appears to me that sixes have been rolled slightly more over the previous 100 games than I would expect" and an even harder time believing the next logical would be "you must have altered the dice!"

adrianN 9y ago
Looks like you only play boardgames with casuals.
- pc86 9y ago
  That must be it :)
- logfromblammo 9y ago
  If you're OP, you keep a running mental tally of other player's resource cards, so it is immediately obvious which rolls have been coming up more often than chance, and which ones have been coming up less. There are 21 different ways to load 2 dice with one weighted face each. Here's a table showing which rolls are advantaged or disadvantaged, according to which faces are weighted. 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 1,1 < < < < < < > > > > > 1,2 < < < < < = > > > > > 1,3 < < < < < = > > > > > 1,4 < < < < < = > > < > > 1,5 < < = = < = > = = < > 1,6 < = = = = > = = = = < 2,2 = < < < = < = > > > = 2,3 = < < < < = < > > > = <<< GOOD 2,4 = < = < > = > > = > = 2,5 = = < = = > = = < = = 3,3 = = < = > < > = > = = 3,4 = = = = < > < = = = = <<< BEST 4,4 = = > = > < > = < = = 5,2* = = < = = > = = < = = 5,3 = > = > > = > < = < = 5,4 = > > > < = < < < < = <<< GOOD 5,5 = > > > = < = < < < < 6,1* < = = = = > = = = = < 6,2 > < = = > = < = = < < 6,3 > > < > > = < < < < < 6,4 > > > > > = < < < < < 6,5 > > > > > = < < < < < 6,6 > > > > > < < < < < < * duplicated to show symmetry So for this game, I'd probably weight 3 and 4, to advantage 7s over 6s and 8s, and build more on the 5s and 9s. Most players that have no knowledge of the load of the dice will prefer to have at least one settlement on a 6 or 8. The 2,3 and 5,4 pairs also disadvantage 6 and 8, with bias for higher or lower numbers.
deleted 9y ago
[deleted]