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But also climate change, endocrinde disruption, soil acidification and oceans full of microplastics. I wonder how many times "progress" has to bite us in the as

But also climate change, endocrinde disruption, soil acidification and oceans full of microplastics. I wonder how many times "progress" has to bite us in the ass before our culture realizes that the behavior of the complex systems our lives depend on really can't be predicted, and that it might actually be best to err on the side of caution. Everything in this thread just sounds like releasing rabbits into Australia all over again. Complete with the "fix" of releasing foxes if something goes wrong.

TeMPOraL 9y ago
The problem isn't with predicting behaviour of complex systems - even if we can't do that, we're pretty good at quickly noticing consequences when they're still small. What we are not good at, however, is stopping doing things that are actively harmful long-term, or to other people. Climate change, soil acidification and microplastics don't happen because we don't know what we're doing - it happens because people causing it have no direct interest in stopping the harm. They could have, if they all agreed to change their behaviour together, but the (possibly most) fundamental fact about human beings is that humans are near-impossible to coordinate at scale. So the problem is not with knowing - it's with humans being selfish and impossible to coordinate.
- kilpikaarna 9y ago
  Hmm, I feel like that distinction might blur a lot if one considers human society as part of the greater surrounding ecosystem. The focus on short term thinking probably just shows how little we differ from bacteria growing to fill a petri dish. Climate change and microplastics, in particular, went unnoticed for a long time. Now that we know about them, fossil fuels and plastics are too entrenched in our lifestyles for us to be able to do much. And we still don't know what their ultimate consequences will be, but it's generally assumed it won't be good. That said, it probably makes more sense to think of modified genomes spreading in terms of invasive species. A relatively small act or change can upset a delicate balance in a very unpredictable way. And once that happens it doesn't matter if you stop. The damage is done and will continue on its own, you'll just have to wait (several human lifespans) for the system to right itself. And hope it doesn't stumble right onto you in the process.
RcouF1uZ4gsC 9y ago
Even with all the things you mentioned, they really haven't had much of an impact of people's well-being. The other stuff has revolutionized human well-being and has enabled 7 billion humans to live with probably the lowest rate of extreme poverty humanity has ever known. The average human in a developed country lives better than the greatest king or queen of the pre-Scientific age.
chiefalchemist 9y ago
How many time have we, for example, introduced a "counter acting species" to some "problem species" only to have our "solution" go sideways? Or look at diets: more carbs, less fats. Look what that got us? I'm not a Luddite. But how many times do we have to run full speed ahead into the darkness before we realize a flashlight and some reasonable caution might be a good idea? When will we learn?
- red75prime 9y ago
  The problems is there's no one who runs full speed ahead. There are many independent agents making locally sensible decisions.

TeMPOraL 9y ago

The problem isn't with predicting behaviour of complex systems - even if we can't do that, we're pretty good at quickly noticing consequences when they're still small. What we are not good at, however, is stopping doing things that are actively harmful long-term, or to other people. Climate change, soil acidification and microplastics don't happen because we don't know what we're doing - it happens because people causing it have no direct interest in stopping the harm. They could have, if they all agreed to change their behaviour together, but the (possibly most) fundamental fact about human beings is that humans are near-impossible to coordinate at scale. So the problem is not with knowing - it's with humans being selfish and impossible to coordinate.

kilpikaarna 9y ago
Hmm, I feel like that distinction might blur a lot if one considers human society as part of the greater surrounding ecosystem. The focus on short term thinking probably just shows how little we differ from bacteria growing to fill a petri dish. Climate change and microplastics, in particular, went unnoticed for a long time. Now that we know about them, fossil fuels and plastics are too entrenched in our lifestyles for us to be able to do much. And we still don't know what their ultimate consequences will be, but it's generally assumed it won't be good. That said, it probably makes more sense to think of modified genomes spreading in terms of invasive species. A relatively small act or change can upset a delicate balance in a very unpredictable way. And once that happens it doesn't matter if you stop. The damage is done and will continue on its own, you'll just have to wait (several human lifespans) for the system to right itself. And hope it doesn't stumble right onto you in the process.

RcouF1uZ4gsC 9y ago

Even with all the things you mentioned, they really haven't had much of an impact of people's well-being. The other stuff has revolutionized human well-being and has enabled 7 billion humans to live with probably the lowest rate of extreme poverty humanity has ever known. The average human in a developed country lives better than the greatest king or queen of the pre-Scientific age.

chiefalchemist 9y ago

How many time have we, for example, introduced a "counter acting species" to some "problem species" only to have our "solution" go sideways? Or look at diets: more carbs, less fats. Look what that got us? I'm not a Luddite. But how many times do we have to run full speed ahead into the darkness before we realize a flashlight and some reasonable caution might be a good idea? When will we learn?

red75prime 9y ago
The problems is there's no one who runs full speed ahead. There are many independent agents making locally sensible decisions.