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Contrary to the cliché, the vast majority of millennials did not go to college, do not work as baristas and cannot lean on their parents for help. Maybe the va

by apo 9y ago

Contrary to the cliché, the vast majority of millennials did not go to college, do not work as baristas and cannot lean on their parents for help. Maybe the vast majority don't graduate from college, but the majority enroll according to BLS, and have for some time: https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2017/69-point-7-percent-of-2016-high-school-graduates-enrolled-in-college-in-october-2016.htm https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2017/69-point-7-percent-of-2016... One of the hallmarks of a bubble is that the conventional wisdom support it wholeheartedly. The early 2000s US housing market is a case in point. I remember vividly discussions with prospective first-time home buyers at the time. I told them they were taking a big risk borrowing money to pay for something that could quickly decline in value. Let's just say the conversation didn't go much further than that. Today I have similar discussions with parents of high school children. Debt is still the funding mechanism, but the asset is a 4-year college degree. As before, this is a guaranteed conversation-killer. There are many causes for the challenges faced by millenials, but worship at the altar of 4-year degrees, and especially the appetite for debt financing, is one of the biggest.

wahern 9y ago
During the bubble homeownership rates deviated from the 50-year average by a whopping 5%, more-or-less.[1] And for that entire time taking out a mortgage was also the norm.[2] The bubble wasn't so much in ownership rates but in prices. I appreciate your link to college enrollment. I never realized it was so high. But at the same time it's been relatively high--at least, much higher than I believed--since long before there was a so-called bubble in college enrollment. I appreciate your points but I feel like you're trying too hard to affirm the current narrative among millennials that eschew both home ownership and college. Whatever the merit of that argument, the premise that there's a recent bubble in the numbers of people pursing those things is belied by the evidence. The only concrete thing we can say in both cases relates to price inflation. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Home-ownership_in_the_United_States#/media/File:Historic_U.S._Homeownership_Rate,_as_of_2014.svg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Home-ownership_in_the_United_S... [2] I couldn't find historical numbers on the percentage of first-time home buyers taking out a mortgage. I feel like this point is uncontroversial, but I could very well be wrong.
revelation 9y ago
Where did this idea come from that you should buy a house where after you've lived in it for 40 years, it should still be able to turn a profit? That seems like a uniquely American derangement. If only you guys would approach car ownership with the same mindset.
mixmastamyk 9y ago
I agree in theory but am amazed at how many jobs are unavailable to me without a BS degree. If I could go back and tell my twenty year old self, I’d say not to take those high paying 90s jobs and stick it out two more years.
- sizzle 9y ago
  Never too late

by apo 9y ago

wahern 9y ago

During the bubble homeownership rates deviated from the 50-year average by a whopping 5%, more-or-less.[1] And for that entire time taking out a mortgage was also the norm.[2] The bubble wasn't so much in ownership rates but in prices. I appreciate your link to college enrollment. I never realized it was so high. But at the same time it's been relatively high--at least, much higher than I believed--since long before there was a so-called bubble in college enrollment. I appreciate your points but I feel like you're trying too hard to affirm the current narrative among millennials that eschew both home ownership and college. Whatever the merit of that argument, the premise that there's a recent bubble in the numbers of people pursing those things is belied by the evidence. The only concrete thing we can say in both cases relates to price inflation. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Home-ownership_in_the_United_States#/media/File:Historic_U.S._Homeownership_Rate,_as_of_2014.svg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Home-ownership_in_the_United_S... [2] I couldn't find historical numbers on the percentage of first-time home buyers taking out a mortgage. I feel like this point is uncontroversial, but I could very well be wrong.

revelation 9y ago

Where did this idea come from that you should buy a house where after you've lived in it for 40 years, it should still be able to turn a profit? That seems like a uniquely American derangement. If only you guys would approach car ownership with the same mindset.

mixmastamyk 9y ago

I agree in theory but am amazed at how many jobs are unavailable to me without a BS degree. If I could go back and tell my twenty year old self, I’d say not to take those high paying 90s jobs and stick it out two more years.

sizzle 9y ago
Never too late