> A forecast should go bankrupt before it gets to the final event, what? Can go bankrupt, not should. He is saying that if in finance someone would make such

> A forecast should go bankrupt before it gets to the final event, what? Can go bankrupt, not should. He is saying that if in finance someone would make such a ridiculous forecast, his forecast would be shorted into oblivion and he would have lost most of the money bet on the forecast before the event even took place. Imagine two relatively matched football teams, but a bookie offering 10:1 bets on one of them. There would have been massive bets against that bookie. Given the recent history of american elections and other factors, a 50:50 prediction is much more sensible than a 98:2 one. But because journalists don't actually put money on their predictions, they can spout whatever numbers. He is also complaining that even with a lot of polls hovering around 50%-50%, that 98%-2% prediction was still on, which doesn't really make any (math) sense (binary options, delta, ...). In his math paper he describes this in more precise form.