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"Experts" predicting bitcoin's impending doom is nothing new. Does anyone remember Professor Mark Williams, a top economist who is so well regarded that he has

by Meekro 9y ago

"Experts" predicting bitcoin's impending doom is nothing new. Does anyone remember Professor Mark Williams, a top economist who is so well regarded that he has been called to testify before Congress many times? In late 2013, he predicted that bitcoin would crash from $1200 to under $10 within the next 6 months [1]. After he was proven wrong, he revised his claim to say that the crash would happen eventually. I guess he was smart not to attach another date to his prediction, lest he be humiliated a second time. Until these economists are willing to put testable specifics to their predictions (bitcoin will drop to under $X within Y weeks), or are at least taking short positions to back up their beliefs, no one should take them too seriously. In contrast, the Winklevoss Twins correctly predicted Bitcoin's rise and become Bitcoin billionaires in the process. But they're not selling because they think it will go up much further [2]. Unlike the economists here, the Winklevii are putting their money where their mouths are. Time will tell if they're right. [1] http://www.businessinsider.com/williams-bitcoin-meltdown-10-2013-12 http://www.businessinsider.com/williams-bitcoin-meltdown-10-... [2] http://www.businessinsider.com/bitcoin-winklevoss-twins-say-could-soar-20-times-trounce-gold-2017-12 http://www.businessinsider.com/bitcoin-winklevoss-twins-say-...

JamesBarney 9y ago
This is true of every bubble ever. No one knew how to predict when the real estate bubble was going to collapse. And they wouldn't have been able to make any specific predictions, despite real estate being an obvious bubble. It was very easy to see that the price did not reflect the fundamentals. And Bitcoin is similar. The fundamentals of Bitcoin do not support the price. Also in terms of putting your money where your mouth is, there isn't any reliable way to profit off of bubble's unless you know the timing. And that's very hard. There are no laws of the universe that keep Bitcoin from rising for another 12 years, or tripling in value before it crashes.
- deleted 9y ago
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- AznHisoka 9y ago
  There are ways, like buying a put option on Overstock for June of 2018, or January of 2019, if you think it'll take more time: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/OSTK/options?p=OSTK&date=1529020800 https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/OSTK/options?p=OSTK&date=152... One look at their performance graph this year, and you'll see it's almost correlated with bitcoin prices.
- huphelmeyer 9y ago
  I'm both someone who believes Bitcoin is in a bubble, and someone who holds a decent amount of it. I never liked the word "Bubble" do describe these things because they rarely pop like bubbles. Physical bubbles inflate relatively gradually and pop very rapidly. Asset bubbles usually don't. The Nasdaq bubble took roughly 6 years to inflate and 3 years to "pop". The real estate bubble took about 11 years to inflate and 6 years to fully deflate. IMHO "balloon" might be a better term. It's possible we could wake up tomorrow in a world where Bitcoin is trading for $10, but I doubt it. Even if today ends up representing the peak in hindsight, I'm (literally) betting that it will take years to fully deflate.

by Meekro 9y ago

JamesBarney 9y ago

This is true of every bubble ever. No one knew how to predict when the real estate bubble was going to collapse. And they wouldn't have been able to make any specific predictions, despite real estate being an obvious bubble. It was very easy to see that the price did not reflect the fundamentals. And Bitcoin is similar. The fundamentals of Bitcoin do not support the price. Also in terms of putting your money where your mouth is, there isn't any reliable way to profit off of bubble's unless you know the timing. And that's very hard. There are no laws of the universe that keep Bitcoin from rising for another 12 years, or tripling in value before it crashes.

deleted 9y ago
[deleted]
AznHisoka 9y ago
There are ways, like buying a put option on Overstock for June of 2018, or January of 2019, if you think it'll take more time: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/OSTK/options?p=OSTK&date=1529020800 https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/OSTK/options?p=OSTK&date=152... One look at their performance graph this year, and you'll see it's almost correlated with bitcoin prices.
huphelmeyer 9y ago
I'm both someone who believes Bitcoin is in a bubble, and someone who holds a decent amount of it. I never liked the word "Bubble" do describe these things because they rarely pop like bubbles. Physical bubbles inflate relatively gradually and pop very rapidly. Asset bubbles usually don't. The Nasdaq bubble took roughly 6 years to inflate and 3 years to "pop". The real estate bubble took about 11 years to inflate and 6 years to fully deflate. IMHO "balloon" might be a better term. It's possible we could wake up tomorrow in a world where Bitcoin is trading for $10, but I doubt it. Even if today ends up representing the peak in hindsight, I'm (literally) betting that it will take years to fully deflate.