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I've seen a few estimates for what value Bitcoin would have if it did become a world currency (or suchlike), and they're all in the $500 000+ range. So the curr
by OscarCunningham 9y ago
I've seen a few estimates for what value Bitcoin would have if it did become a world currency (or suchlike), and they're all in the $500 000+ range. So the current price of around $20 000 is consistent with the theory that Bitcoin will succeed with probability 5% and go to zero with probability 95%. I don't think that's obviously wrong, so I'd say it's wrong to call it a bubble.
And even if Bitcoin does go to zero that still doesn't prove that we were in a bubble now. The market is already 95% sure that that's what's going to happen!
- rhino369 9y agoI think a 5% chance of bitcoin becoming a world currency is obviously wrong. You also have to figure in discount rates.
- OscarCunningham 9y ago>You also have to figure in discount rates. Yeah, and risk aversion which I think would be much more significant.