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I'm committing the cardinal sin of commenting before I'm done with the article, but whenever this discussion comes up, I feel like asking: why not both? Could i

I'm committing the cardinal sin of commenting before I'm done with the article, but whenever this discussion comes up, I feel like asking: why not both? Could it be that Bitcoin is currently overvalued and in a "bubble", but it or something like it still may have huge value and utility in the long run? The idea that the Bitcoin bubble is something more like the Dot Com bubble than Tulipomania seems plausible to me.

dumbfounder 9y ago
Yes. Internet stocks were in a bubble in the late 90's. It burst but the Internet turned out just fine. The question is, when the crypto bubble bursts, will Bitcoin recover, or will it be something else?
- RosanaAnaDana 9y ago
  I think the contents of that bubble will fill another, more technically useful crypto. Something with 0 cost transaction fees.
  - Vadoff 9y ago
    It's not currently possible to have a crypto with 0 fees that's both distributed/non-centralized as well as very secure against attacks. If there is, Bitcoin can easily incorporate the technology.
    - Jsarokin 9y ago
      I'd say IOTA might fit your criteria, although it's still early stage. I don't think bitcoin could integrate their tech since it's not a blockchain, but a DAG (what they call a tangle). Interesting stuff.
      - gonzoflip 9y ago
        I have been following IOTA for a while now and while concept of IOTA is very neat, it appears that the community/leadership surrounding it are in shambles. The network is not really working unless you run a full node, and even then if you send your IOTA to an address you have transferred IOTA out of you can lose them forever. These issues make me very nervous about the whole project.
    - wyldfire 9y ago
      Proof-of-stake is "very secure against attacks" but is less decentralized than proof-of-work. See Peercoin, Raiblocks.
  - wyldfire 9y ago
    Raiblocks [1] offers zero fee transactions. It will be interesting to see if node operators can be motivated by the same decentralization/benevolence that causes people to run bitcoin nodes today. [1] https://raiblocks.net/media/RaiBlocks_Whitepaper__English.pdf https://raiblocks.net/media/RaiBlocks_Whitepaper__English.pd...
    - Geee 9y ago
      RaiBlocks has PoS consensus so node operators are incentivized. It also has PoW as a spam prevention mechanism (transactions are not completely free (few seconds on commodity CPU), and you can also "cache" PoW). I think it makes sense, unlike IOTA for example.
      - Geee 9y ago
        I have to correct that actually PoS is voluntarist. Node operators don't collect fees in RaiBlocks. They operate just to secure the network and their own investment.
- heurist 9y ago
  Having read a thousand rabid forum posts over the last week, I get the feeling people will hold for decades regardless of short term changes or regulation. They think there is unlimited upside as it eats into gold and fiat, so it's only rational told hold until the new world order comes and everyone in the world is using bitcoin. I'm hard pressed to disagree. But diversification is important. Best strategy I've seen so far is to take some bitcoin profit and put a chunk into altcoins and the rest into dividend producing equities.
  - bringtheaction 9y ago
    I hold a diverse portfolio. In my experience when the price of bitcoin falls, the alts fall too. Additionally, if I'd held bitcoin only I'd have greater dollar value today. If my alts were protecting me I'd be happy to sacrifice the greater growth I could have seen but honestly I am not so sure that I am protected at all. I believe in the usefulness of the blockchain and related technologies though, and I am certain that adoption among businesses of said technology will only keep rising. I don't know if the crypto currencies have a future though. And even if they do I don't know if they will ever be priced as highly again as they are now. I hope they do, but if my portfolio fell to $0 tomorrow I'd be bummed out but it wouldn't be critical.
    - Terretta 9y ago
      Can’t just be “alt” coins. Harvest profits and put into multiple uncorrelated premises or theories of how digital value works.
- Vadoff 9y ago
  The Bitcoin bubble has already burst, multiple times in fact. From the high point of $31 all the way to $2 in Dec 2011. From $266 to $130 in May 2013. From $1200 to $200 in Mar 2015. From $5000 to $2900 in Sep 2017. From $7300 to $5500 in Nov 2017. From $18000 to $14000 in Dec 2017.
Akujin 9y ago
Tulipmania lasted 6 months. Bitcoin is now 8 years old. Stop comparing Bitcoin to flowers. It's not even close to the same thing.
- darkstar999 9y ago
  But the bitcoin mania has only been going on within the past year.
  - beering 9y ago
    There were at least two previous Bitcoin manias and bubbles. I remember a lot of hype when it hit $70 (from single-digit prices), and then again when it hit $1000. Both times people said it was a bubble, and then the bubble popped.
    - Akujin 9y ago
      The worst part of all of this Bitcoin speculation is that you have someone like the person you're replying to get on and talk out of their ass. Literally. And then they are the ones getting upvoted cause all the haters love to talk to trash with zero intellectual honesty. This is actually bubble #4. Here's an analysis of the previous 3: https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@huku/bitcoin-bubbles-a-brief-history https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@huku/bitcoin-bubbles-a-brief-hi...
- pasquinelli 9y ago
  tulips had existed for quite a long time before they became the object of a speculative bubble.
  - Akujin 9y ago
    Reading comprehension is hard. I know. (No where did I say Tulips)
- the_gastropod 9y ago
  Believe it or not, tulip bulbs existed for a reaaaaaally long time before tulip mania. For the vast majority of Bitcoin's history, it has been known by virtually no-one outside of the tech circle, and its price was relatively stable/low [1] [1] https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=XBT&to=USD&view=10Y https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=XBT&to=USD&view=10Y
deleted 9y ago
[deleted]
mirimir 9y ago
Long term, the price has increased exponentially. As expected. There have been a few bubbles, as well. And it's pretty clear, as you say, that it's currently in one now.

dumbfounder 9y ago

Yes. Internet stocks were in a bubble in the late 90's. It burst but the Internet turned out just fine. The question is, when the crypto bubble bursts, will Bitcoin recover, or will it be something else?

RosanaAnaDana 9y ago
I think the contents of that bubble will fill another, more technically useful crypto. Something with 0 cost transaction fees.
- Vadoff 9y ago
  It's not currently possible to have a crypto with 0 fees that's both distributed/non-centralized as well as very secure against attacks. If there is, Bitcoin can easily incorporate the technology.
  - Jsarokin 9y ago
    I'd say IOTA might fit your criteria, although it's still early stage. I don't think bitcoin could integrate their tech since it's not a blockchain, but a DAG (what they call a tangle). Interesting stuff.
    - gonzoflip 9y ago
      I have been following IOTA for a while now and while concept of IOTA is very neat, it appears that the community/leadership surrounding it are in shambles. The network is not really working unless you run a full node, and even then if you send your IOTA to an address you have transferred IOTA out of you can lose them forever. These issues make me very nervous about the whole project.
  - wyldfire 9y ago
    Proof-of-stake is "very secure against attacks" but is less decentralized than proof-of-work. See Peercoin, Raiblocks.
- wyldfire 9y ago
  Raiblocks [1] offers zero fee transactions. It will be interesting to see if node operators can be motivated by the same decentralization/benevolence that causes people to run bitcoin nodes today. [1] https://raiblocks.net/media/RaiBlocks_Whitepaper__English.pdf https://raiblocks.net/media/RaiBlocks_Whitepaper__English.pd...
  - Geee 9y ago
    RaiBlocks has PoS consensus so node operators are incentivized. It also has PoW as a spam prevention mechanism (transactions are not completely free (few seconds on commodity CPU), and you can also "cache" PoW). I think it makes sense, unlike IOTA for example.
    - Geee 9y ago
      I have to correct that actually PoS is voluntarist. Node operators don't collect fees in RaiBlocks. They operate just to secure the network and their own investment.
heurist 9y ago
Having read a thousand rabid forum posts over the last week, I get the feeling people will hold for decades regardless of short term changes or regulation. They think there is unlimited upside as it eats into gold and fiat, so it's only rational told hold until the new world order comes and everyone in the world is using bitcoin. I'm hard pressed to disagree. But diversification is important. Best strategy I've seen so far is to take some bitcoin profit and put a chunk into altcoins and the rest into dividend producing equities.
- bringtheaction 9y ago
  I hold a diverse portfolio. In my experience when the price of bitcoin falls, the alts fall too. Additionally, if I'd held bitcoin only I'd have greater dollar value today. If my alts were protecting me I'd be happy to sacrifice the greater growth I could have seen but honestly I am not so sure that I am protected at all. I believe in the usefulness of the blockchain and related technologies though, and I am certain that adoption among businesses of said technology will only keep rising. I don't know if the crypto currencies have a future though. And even if they do I don't know if they will ever be priced as highly again as they are now. I hope they do, but if my portfolio fell to $0 tomorrow I'd be bummed out but it wouldn't be critical.
  - Terretta 9y ago
    Can’t just be “alt” coins. Harvest profits and put into multiple uncorrelated premises or theories of how digital value works.
Vadoff 9y ago
The Bitcoin bubble has already burst, multiple times in fact. From the high point of $31 all the way to $2 in Dec 2011. From $266 to $130 in May 2013. From $1200 to $200 in Mar 2015. From $5000 to $2900 in Sep 2017. From $7300 to $5500 in Nov 2017. From $18000 to $14000 in Dec 2017.

Akujin 9y ago

Tulipmania lasted 6 months. Bitcoin is now 8 years old. Stop comparing Bitcoin to flowers. It's not even close to the same thing.

darkstar999 9y ago
But the bitcoin mania has only been going on within the past year.
- beering 9y ago
  There were at least two previous Bitcoin manias and bubbles. I remember a lot of hype when it hit $70 (from single-digit prices), and then again when it hit $1000. Both times people said it was a bubble, and then the bubble popped.
  - Akujin 9y ago
    The worst part of all of this Bitcoin speculation is that you have someone like the person you're replying to get on and talk out of their ass. Literally. And then they are the ones getting upvoted cause all the haters love to talk to trash with zero intellectual honesty. This is actually bubble #4. Here's an analysis of the previous 3: https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@huku/bitcoin-bubbles-a-brief-history https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@huku/bitcoin-bubbles-a-brief-hi...
pasquinelli 9y ago
tulips had existed for quite a long time before they became the object of a speculative bubble.
- Akujin 9y ago
  Reading comprehension is hard. I know. (No where did I say Tulips)
the_gastropod 9y ago
Believe it or not, tulip bulbs existed for a reaaaaaally long time before tulip mania. For the vast majority of Bitcoin's history, it has been known by virtually no-one outside of the tech circle, and its price was relatively stable/low [1] [1] https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=XBT&to=USD&view=10Y https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=XBT&to=USD&view=10Y

deleted 9y ago

[deleted]

mirimir 9y ago

Long term, the price has increased exponentially. As expected. There have been a few bubbles, as well. And it's pretty clear, as you say, that it's currently in one now.