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i disagree with the author's logic here - yes any individual result is disconnected, yes the gambler's fallacy is wrong, but if we simply expand it to say, a 10
by gr3yh47 9y ago
i disagree with the author's logic here - yes any individual result is disconnected, yes the gambler's fallacy is wrong, but if we simply expand it to say, a 100 sided die landing on 1, 92 times in a row, then we can see the flaw here.
or to put it another way - expand his argument to 1 million coin flips, and all of them heads.
at some point probabilities should be evinced in results. it is surprising when they are not.
- pcmonk 9y agoHe addresses this in the article if you read a little further down. Briefly, any sequence of 1 million coin flips is equally unlikely, so why are most of them not surprising?
- ythn 9y agoHe addresses this in the article if you read a little further down. Briefly, any sequence of 1 million coin flips is equally unlikely, but because most fall within our expectations, they are not surprising. 1 million heads in a row does not fall within our expectations and is unlikely, and hence is surprising.