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> > “We don’t know who is doing this, but it feels like a large nation-state. China or Russia would be my first guesses.” [Bruce Schneier when Mirai first appea

> > “We don’t know who is doing this, but it feels like a large nation-state. China or Russia would be my first guesses.” [Bruce Schneier when Mirai first appeared] > This looks especially foolish now. Schneier is a so-called expert who has testified in front of congress. He should be more careful when engaging in rampant speculation like this. Perhaps by being not a native speaker of English and not living in the USA I miss some cultural subtleties, but I would call Bruce Schneier's statement really cautious: - He clearly states he does not know who is the culprit (really cautious - as it should be!) - He clearly states that his statement is based alone on feeling - He rather clearly outlines that his guesses for China or Russia are based on the correctness of the assumption that a national state is behind it

TheBestKorea 9y ago
People have the responsibility when making predictions that others will take action based on their prediction. Speculation without merit, only going by "first guess" should not be shared. If you are an expert, your opinion (even offhand) carries weight.
- wolfgke 9y ago
  > People have the responsibility when making predictions that others will take action based on their prediction. I agree - and this is why Bruce Schneier (in my opinion) formulated his statements so cautiously and clearly pointed out the lack of evidence. Of course people will take action - but this can mean anything: - Doing undercover investigation to collect evidence whether China or Russia is really behind it or this was a red herring: I would consider this as a pretty good idea under the given circumstances. - Accusing China or Russia on the world stage that they are behind these attacks: A really bad idea. But both are plausible actions based on the "prediction" - and I would call the first one actually a good idea under the given circumstances.

TheBestKorea 9y ago

People have the responsibility when making predictions that others will take action based on their prediction. Speculation without merit, only going by "first guess" should not be shared. If you are an expert, your opinion (even offhand) carries weight.

wolfgke 9y ago
> People have the responsibility when making predictions that others will take action based on their prediction. I agree - and this is why Bruce Schneier (in my opinion) formulated his statements so cautiously and clearly pointed out the lack of evidence. Of course people will take action - but this can mean anything: - Doing undercover investigation to collect evidence whether China or Russia is really behind it or this was a red herring: I would consider this as a pretty good idea under the given circumstances. - Accusing China or Russia on the world stage that they are behind these attacks: A really bad idea. But both are plausible actions based on the "prediction" - and I would call the first one actually a good idea under the given circumstances.