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Germany allowing Poland to join NATO is a brilliant move on their part. If NATO ended at the German border, and a conflict with Russia arose, the front of that

Germany allowing Poland to join NATO is a brilliant move on their part. If NATO ended at the German border, and a conflict with Russia arose, the front of that war would be on German territory. Having a war fought within borders is devastating, and Germany knows that first-hand. Allowing Poland means that if there is a serious border intrusion, the war will be fought in Poland's territory. Poland is western Europe's buffer against Russian expansion. The question that remains is how hard and how far will Russia need to push before NATO responds with force. We've already seen that Russia's expansion into Georgia resulted in nary a blip of a response. Annexation of Ukraine's territory was met with a louder response, but still nothing that would make Russia think twice. Will an intrusion into one of the Baltic states cause the NATO mutual assurances to kick in? First, I hope we never get to find out. However, if it comes to that, I hope so. Unfortunately, history has shown that I should my hope is likely misplaced. Treaties, like other laws, can be amended, changed, or interpreted in creative ways when it suits the stronger party well.

_Codemonkeyism 9y ago
Good points I hadn't thought of. "The question that remains is how hard and how far will Russia need to push before NATO responds with force." Proably with Russian tanks in Poland. But I don't think Poland is in danger, Russia already got most of what it wanted during/after WW2 from Poland. The Baltic states in the current borders is something Russia doesn't want. "However, if it comes to that, I hope so." I hope so too, but I would bet on the other outcome.
- gaius 9y ago
  Proably with Russian tanks in Poland The Americans are not interested and the rest of NATO can't scrape together anything that could stop the Third Shock Army anymore. The UK can't even put a single armoured division into the field anymore. The NATO air patrol of the Baltic States isn't even a full fighter squadron. If Russian tanks roll NATO will look the other way, because it has no choice. It won't change soon because of years of underinvestment that can't be made good overnight even if huge budgets were suddenly available. Which they aren't.
  - nl 9y ago
    The Americans are not interested ... If Russian tanks roll NATO will look the other way, because it has no choice. This is why the US has forces deployed in Poland and Estonia[1]. They are there to die, just like the US forces in Berlin were. In the cruel calculus of war these soldiers have to die to make sure US public opinion supports US intervention. I'm not sure, but I think NATO doctrine is sill to go tactical nuclear if the tanks roll. [1] https://www.army.mil/article/194380/ https://www.army.mil/article/194380/
    - gaius 9y ago
      The UK also has a battalion in Estonia - but the Russians can field as many tanks as the UK has individual soldiers there. They will be a "speed bump", nothing more.
      - arethuza 9y ago
        There is a novel by a former senior UK general and deputy NATO leader that covers this scenario: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/former-nato-commander-s-new-book-predicts-invasion-of-baltic-as-putin-bids-to-make-russia-a-great-a7036911.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/former-nato-c... Not a great novel but mildly interesting.
      - _Codemonkeyism 9y ago
        Not a speed bump, a trip wire.
        gaius 9y ago
        Triggering what? It's not like the UK has the capability - every "strategic defence review" is just cut, cut, cut. Challenger2, AS90, cut to the bone. Typhoon is barely capable of air-to-ground and the Tornado fleet is rapidly approaching end of life. The Type 45s fitted "for but not with" their major weapons. Carriers without anything to carry. NATO cannot defend the Baltic States, and if push comes to shove, it won't even try.

_Codemonkeyism 9y ago

Good points I hadn't thought of. "The question that remains is how hard and how far will Russia need to push before NATO responds with force." Proably with Russian tanks in Poland. But I don't think Poland is in danger, Russia already got most of what it wanted during/after WW2 from Poland. The Baltic states in the current borders is something Russia doesn't want. "However, if it comes to that, I hope so." I hope so too, but I would bet on the other outcome.

gaius 9y ago
Proably with Russian tanks in Poland The Americans are not interested and the rest of NATO can't scrape together anything that could stop the Third Shock Army anymore. The UK can't even put a single armoured division into the field anymore. The NATO air patrol of the Baltic States isn't even a full fighter squadron. If Russian tanks roll NATO will look the other way, because it has no choice. It won't change soon because of years of underinvestment that can't be made good overnight even if huge budgets were suddenly available. Which they aren't.
- nl 9y ago
  The Americans are not interested ... If Russian tanks roll NATO will look the other way, because it has no choice. This is why the US has forces deployed in Poland and Estonia[1]. They are there to die, just like the US forces in Berlin were. In the cruel calculus of war these soldiers have to die to make sure US public opinion supports US intervention. I'm not sure, but I think NATO doctrine is sill to go tactical nuclear if the tanks roll. [1] https://www.army.mil/article/194380/ https://www.army.mil/article/194380/
  - gaius 9y ago
    The UK also has a battalion in Estonia - but the Russians can field as many tanks as the UK has individual soldiers there. They will be a "speed bump", nothing more.
    - arethuza 9y ago
      There is a novel by a former senior UK general and deputy NATO leader that covers this scenario: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/former-nato-commander-s-new-book-predicts-invasion-of-baltic-as-putin-bids-to-make-russia-a-great-a7036911.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/former-nato-c... Not a great novel but mildly interesting.
    - _Codemonkeyism 9y ago
      Not a speed bump, a trip wire.
      - gaius 9y ago
        Triggering what? It's not like the UK has the capability - every "strategic defence review" is just cut, cut, cut. Challenger2, AS90, cut to the bone. Typhoon is barely capable of air-to-ground and the Tornado fleet is rapidly approaching end of life. The Type 45s fitted "for but not with" their major weapons. Carriers without anything to carry. NATO cannot defend the Baltic States, and if push comes to shove, it won't even try.