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First, let me say that I can totally understand your position and the Polish position in general. Russia is and has been (as Germany has been) an agressive impe

First, let me say that I can totally understand your position and the Polish position in general. Russia is and has been (as Germany has been) an agressive imperialist country (I would wish Germany thanked Poland more for stopping the Russian march on Germany in 1921). I can also understand your point as a country that had defence agreements and ended up occupied after WW2 while your defenders claimed victory. But IMHO it accelerated (imperialist) Russia (again) on an agression path but more importantly weakend NATO, as NATO acceptance in core countries like France, the UK and Germany decreased. Acceptance of NATO in Germany is lower than ever, basically because NATO is seen as not committing to promises made and seen as an agressor in large parts of the population because of this (not my POV). "a covert landgrab like the one that happened in Ukraine wouldn't be stopped." NATO is so weakend right now and a shadow from the 1980s NATO that with a different government than the current conservative one, Germany will not commit to defend baltic states if Russia plays the Crimea Russian minority shenanigans. The current US government won't either. In no way will NATO countries use nuclear weapons to defend baltic states compared to using nuclear weapons in the 80s.

aluhut 9y ago
Nuclear strike is a topic for itself since I think nobody will use it but: > Germany will not commit to defend baltic states if Russia plays the Crimea Russian minority shenanigans. ...is a weird statement. Where do you get this from? Besides the fact that "Germany" would never do anything by themselves, I'm pretty sure they wouldn't hesitate to join an European/NATO force to defend those countries. The "shock" here wouldn't be even half as hard as it was before Yugoslavia broke apart and Germany had to send soldiers into war again. Today there is not even a relevant party in the german parliament that could theoretically stop that involvement. I'm pretty sure some in Russia want to believe that Germany wouldn't join Europe/NATO since Russia is in fact the weak party here but I don't believe Putin is that naive.
- _Codemonkeyism 9y ago
  As a German reading the German press I think any government except the current conservative one would wiggle out of any NATO operation in the baltic states. Support for the Yugoslavia effort was mainly based on the genocide there and some people felt some obligation because of the holocaust and German war crimes in Yugoslavia during WW2. It's exactly the opposite with Russia. Contrary to every evidence Russia is seen as a victim by large parts of the population. "Russia is in fact the weak party" With Crimea, South Ossetia, Abkhazia etc. etc. Russia doesn't look like the weak party to me.
  - aluhut 9y ago
    I live in Germany too but I still fail to see where you get your assessment from. What are those "other" governments you are talking about? AfD and die Linke coalition? Because they are the only ones who have problems with NATO and love Russia. Both are far away from being even considered seriously in day to day business and their ties to Russia are a topic for itself. > Contrary to every evidence Russia is seen as a victim by large parts of the population. Do you seriously believe Russia would be seen as a victim when it invades another country? Seriously? By whom? AfD? And how would that new invasion look like to you? People welcoming the Russian Freedomfighters? Do you thing there would be no dead people there?! And why should it be seen positively when the invasion in Ukraine has not been seen positively while the sanctions against Russia are seen positively: https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/292793/umfrage/umfrage-zu-sanktionen-gegen-russland-aufgrund-der-krim-krise/ https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/292793/umfrag... even though Germany is among those who are hurt by those sanctions. > With Crimea, South Ossetia, Abkhazia etc. etc. Russia doesn't look like the weak party to me. Please don't kid yourself. Most people here don't even know where this is and their illegal involvement in Ukraine made them the evil guy for a long time. It did not help them at all and it doesn't help your point at all. I really wonder where you come from. AfD, Linke, Querfront?
    - _Codemonkeyism 9y ago
      I think any government of SPD and Greens will wiggle out. Obvously any government with the communists (Linke). Don't think a government with AfD will happen soon or ever. "Please don't kid yourself. Most people don't even know where this is and their illegal involvement in Ukraine made them the evil guy for a long time. It did not help them at all and it doesn't help your point at all." After rereading this, I still can't follow your point. "Do you seriously believe Russia would be seen as a victim when it invades another country? Seriously? By whom? AfD?" If Russia plays the Russian-minority-we-have-nothing-to-do-with-it-Crimea-shenanigans with the baltic state, yes. Russia is seen as the victim of the Ukraine crisis. 50% of SPD members/voters - more if it's left dominated as it currenty is compared to a Schmidt/Schroeder/Brand rightist dominated SPD - 50% of Green members/voters - less if Realos dominate like Fisher, but the Greens are currently dominated by Fundi positions - 100% of Linke voters of course, no clue about AfD. Just read [1] for example, 39% of people in Germany think Germany should accept Crimea as part of Russia. In a government without the conservatives that position would have the majority. Or here [2], majority of people in France (53), Italy (51) and Germany (58) would not defend an eastern NATO country attaked by Russia. [1] http://www.zeit.de/politik/deutschland/2014-11/deutsche-umfrage-krim-annexion http://www.zeit.de/politik/deutschland/2014-11/deutsche-umfr... [2] http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/ausland/umfrage-zur-ukraine-krise-putin-polarisiert-13638108.html http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/ausland/umfrage-zur-ukrai...
- deleted 9y ago
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yetihehe 9y ago
> But IMHO it accelerated (imperialist) Russia (again) on an agression path Yeah, we have heard that before. This is always said in such circumstances (if only Poland agreed to exterritorial corridor, Germany would not attack it).
- _Codemonkeyism 9y ago
  No but it increased Putins popularity and crushed all internal opposition towards an imperialist Russia. I also carefully used the word accelerated [1] which you might have missed. [1] https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/accelerate https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/accelerate
koliber 9y ago
Germany allowing Poland to join NATO is a brilliant move on their part. If NATO ended at the German border, and a conflict with Russia arose, the front of that war would be on German territory. Having a war fought within borders is devastating, and Germany knows that first-hand. Allowing Poland means that if there is a serious border intrusion, the war will be fought in Poland's territory. Poland is western Europe's buffer against Russian expansion. The question that remains is how hard and how far will Russia need to push before NATO responds with force. We've already seen that Russia's expansion into Georgia resulted in nary a blip of a response. Annexation of Ukraine's territory was met with a louder response, but still nothing that would make Russia think twice. Will an intrusion into one of the Baltic states cause the NATO mutual assurances to kick in? First, I hope we never get to find out. However, if it comes to that, I hope so. Unfortunately, history has shown that I should my hope is likely misplaced. Treaties, like other laws, can be amended, changed, or interpreted in creative ways when it suits the stronger party well.
- _Codemonkeyism 9y ago
  Good points I hadn't thought of. "The question that remains is how hard and how far will Russia need to push before NATO responds with force." Proably with Russian tanks in Poland. But I don't think Poland is in danger, Russia already got most of what it wanted during/after WW2 from Poland. The Baltic states in the current borders is something Russia doesn't want. "However, if it comes to that, I hope so." I hope so too, but I would bet on the other outcome.
  - gaius 9y ago
    Proably with Russian tanks in Poland The Americans are not interested and the rest of NATO can't scrape together anything that could stop the Third Shock Army anymore. The UK can't even put a single armoured division into the field anymore. The NATO air patrol of the Baltic States isn't even a full fighter squadron. If Russian tanks roll NATO will look the other way, because it has no choice. It won't change soon because of years of underinvestment that can't be made good overnight even if huge budgets were suddenly available. Which they aren't.

aluhut 9y ago

Nuclear strike is a topic for itself since I think nobody will use it but: > Germany will not commit to defend baltic states if Russia plays the Crimea Russian minority shenanigans. ...is a weird statement. Where do you get this from? Besides the fact that "Germany" would never do anything by themselves, I'm pretty sure they wouldn't hesitate to join an European/NATO force to defend those countries. The "shock" here wouldn't be even half as hard as it was before Yugoslavia broke apart and Germany had to send soldiers into war again. Today there is not even a relevant party in the german parliament that could theoretically stop that involvement. I'm pretty sure some in Russia want to believe that Germany wouldn't join Europe/NATO since Russia is in fact the weak party here but I don't believe Putin is that naive.

_Codemonkeyism 9y ago
As a German reading the German press I think any government except the current conservative one would wiggle out of any NATO operation in the baltic states. Support for the Yugoslavia effort was mainly based on the genocide there and some people felt some obligation because of the holocaust and German war crimes in Yugoslavia during WW2. It's exactly the opposite with Russia. Contrary to every evidence Russia is seen as a victim by large parts of the population. "Russia is in fact the weak party" With Crimea, South Ossetia, Abkhazia etc. etc. Russia doesn't look like the weak party to me.
- aluhut 9y ago
  I live in Germany too but I still fail to see where you get your assessment from. What are those "other" governments you are talking about? AfD and die Linke coalition? Because they are the only ones who have problems with NATO and love Russia. Both are far away from being even considered seriously in day to day business and their ties to Russia are a topic for itself. > Contrary to every evidence Russia is seen as a victim by large parts of the population. Do you seriously believe Russia would be seen as a victim when it invades another country? Seriously? By whom? AfD? And how would that new invasion look like to you? People welcoming the Russian Freedomfighters? Do you thing there would be no dead people there?! And why should it be seen positively when the invasion in Ukraine has not been seen positively while the sanctions against Russia are seen positively: https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/292793/umfrage/umfrage-zu-sanktionen-gegen-russland-aufgrund-der-krim-krise/ https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/292793/umfrag... even though Germany is among those who are hurt by those sanctions. > With Crimea, South Ossetia, Abkhazia etc. etc. Russia doesn't look like the weak party to me. Please don't kid yourself. Most people here don't even know where this is and their illegal involvement in Ukraine made them the evil guy for a long time. It did not help them at all and it doesn't help your point at all. I really wonder where you come from. AfD, Linke, Querfront?
  - _Codemonkeyism 9y ago
    I think any government of SPD and Greens will wiggle out. Obvously any government with the communists (Linke). Don't think a government with AfD will happen soon or ever. "Please don't kid yourself. Most people don't even know where this is and their illegal involvement in Ukraine made them the evil guy for a long time. It did not help them at all and it doesn't help your point at all." After rereading this, I still can't follow your point. "Do you seriously believe Russia would be seen as a victim when it invades another country? Seriously? By whom? AfD?" If Russia plays the Russian-minority-we-have-nothing-to-do-with-it-Crimea-shenanigans with the baltic state, yes. Russia is seen as the victim of the Ukraine crisis. 50% of SPD members/voters - more if it's left dominated as it currenty is compared to a Schmidt/Schroeder/Brand rightist dominated SPD - 50% of Green members/voters - less if Realos dominate like Fisher, but the Greens are currently dominated by Fundi positions - 100% of Linke voters of course, no clue about AfD. Just read [1] for example, 39% of people in Germany think Germany should accept Crimea as part of Russia. In a government without the conservatives that position would have the majority. Or here [2], majority of people in France (53), Italy (51) and Germany (58) would not defend an eastern NATO country attaked by Russia. [1] http://www.zeit.de/politik/deutschland/2014-11/deutsche-umfrage-krim-annexion http://www.zeit.de/politik/deutschland/2014-11/deutsche-umfr... [2] http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/ausland/umfrage-zur-ukraine-krise-putin-polarisiert-13638108.html http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/ausland/umfrage-zur-ukrai...
deleted 9y ago
[deleted]

yetihehe 9y ago

> But IMHO it accelerated (imperialist) Russia (again) on an agression path Yeah, we have heard that before. This is always said in such circumstances (if only Poland agreed to exterritorial corridor, Germany would not attack it).

_Codemonkeyism 9y ago
No but it increased Putins popularity and crushed all internal opposition towards an imperialist Russia. I also carefully used the word accelerated [1] which you might have missed. [1] https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/accelerate https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/accelerate

koliber 9y ago

Germany allowing Poland to join NATO is a brilliant move on their part. If NATO ended at the German border, and a conflict with Russia arose, the front of that war would be on German territory. Having a war fought within borders is devastating, and Germany knows that first-hand. Allowing Poland means that if there is a serious border intrusion, the war will be fought in Poland's territory. Poland is western Europe's buffer against Russian expansion. The question that remains is how hard and how far will Russia need to push before NATO responds with force. We've already seen that Russia's expansion into Georgia resulted in nary a blip of a response. Annexation of Ukraine's territory was met with a louder response, but still nothing that would make Russia think twice. Will an intrusion into one of the Baltic states cause the NATO mutual assurances to kick in? First, I hope we never get to find out. However, if it comes to that, I hope so. Unfortunately, history has shown that I should my hope is likely misplaced. Treaties, like other laws, can be amended, changed, or interpreted in creative ways when it suits the stronger party well.

_Codemonkeyism 9y ago
Good points I hadn't thought of. "The question that remains is how hard and how far will Russia need to push before NATO responds with force." Proably with Russian tanks in Poland. But I don't think Poland is in danger, Russia already got most of what it wanted during/after WW2 from Poland. The Baltic states in the current borders is something Russia doesn't want. "However, if it comes to that, I hope so." I hope so too, but I would bet on the other outcome.
- gaius 9y ago
  Proably with Russian tanks in Poland The Americans are not interested and the rest of NATO can't scrape together anything that could stop the Third Shock Army anymore. The UK can't even put a single armoured division into the field anymore. The NATO air patrol of the Baltic States isn't even a full fighter squadron. If Russian tanks roll NATO will look the other way, because it has no choice. It won't change soon because of years of underinvestment that can't be made good overnight even if huge budgets were suddenly available. Which they aren't.