>On a more serious note, I feel that trap should set off alarm bells for anyone who has taken a statistics course. Yes, but the problem is that most physicians

>On a more serious note, I feel that trap should set off alarm bells for anyone who has taken a statistics course. Yes, but the problem is that most physicians get it wrong. That's what worries me. I agree that the mammogram problem is a bit artificial, but like you say similar problems come up in different forms. It's often not that people have less cognitive abilities (doctors _are_ intelligent), it's just that their intuition convinces them the answer they have in mind is the right one. There's a related research that showed that a similar problem given in _less_ legible font has less cognitive errors: https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2012/02/the-value-of-making-reading-hard/252743/ https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2012/02/the-v...