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> By then, you'll realize it was a mirage all along This is exactly my point. Why are you so certain? How can you tell the difference between this and any ot

> By then, you'll realize it was a mirage all along This is exactly my point. Why are you so certain? How can you tell the difference between this and any other technology adoption logistic curve? People make statements like you do with 100% confidence, and you could very well be right! But where do you get your certainty? And were you equally certain about the inevitable demise of cryptocurrencies when the market was 1% or 10% of its current size?

spookthesunset 9y ago
> Why are you so certain? Because the fundamentals of Bitcoin and The Blockchain are complete garbage. Both are solutions in search of problems. Neither solve any real world problems outside of how to conduct shady, illegal business (murder for hire, crypto-ransomware, mail-order bath-salt delivery) and both do a pretty piss-poor job of even that. This is why bitcoin will ultimately fail. It is a useless product. Full stop.
johnwheeler 9y ago
> But where do you get your certainty? By way of an understanding of human nature. From the book Bull! A history of boom and bust: “...A bubble, Galbraith observed, is always supported by the belief that there is something new in the world. The history of past cycles is dismissed as irrelevant.“ That’s it in a nutshell. It is a time-tested part of who we are, and it’s almost like you’re either born with the ability to see that or you’re not. I don’t know why. I don’t know how much the price will go up, but it going up, even to a million dollars a coin, means little. It will eventually go down and violently so, and some people will be badly hurt. Just people being people. Assets need to be productive in order to be true investments. Like farmland or businesses. Otherwise, you’re speculating on price appreciation. Look at gold over the last 100 years and overlay its price graph over the Dow Jones during the same period. They’re not even close. http://www.macrotrends.net/1333/historical-gold-prices-100-year-chart http://www.macrotrends.net/1333/historical-gold-prices-100-y... http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/historical/marketindexes.html http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/historical/marketindexes.h... That’s the difference between speculation and investment.
- panarky 9y ago
  > ...A bubble, Galbraith observed ... Counterpoint: Galbraith confidently called the US stock market a "classic bubble" in April, 1999. At that time, the Dow Jones was at 10,494. Today it's at 24,504. Looking back with 20/20 hindsight, it now looks like Galbraith was wrong. Source: https://www.theguardian.com/business/1999/apr/18/observerbusiness.theobserver7 https://www.theguardian.com/business/1999/apr/18/observerbus... > Assets need to be productive in order to be true investments Counterpoint: Maybe assets need to be useful to have value. Land, copper, the balance on a Walmart gift card and my World of Warcraft gold don't produce anything, but they're useful, so they have value.
  - JonnyNova 9y ago
    > > ...A bubble, Galbraith observed ... > Counterpoint: Galbraith confidently called the US stock market a "classic bubble" in April, 1999. At that time, the Dow Jones was at 10,494. Today it's at 24,504. No! Current day valuation versus 1999 valuation has nothing to do with each other. In 1999 the market was over valued and the bubble soon popped. > > Assets need to be productive in order to be true investments > Counterpoint: Maybe assets need to be useful to have value. Land, copper, the balance on a Walmart gift card and my World of Warcraft gold don't produce anything, but they're useful, so they have value. The key difference between an asset and investment is that investments produce returns.
    - panarky 9y ago
      > In 1999 the market was over valued and the bubble soon popped. Here's a chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Please identify this bubble popping that you speak of. https://imgur.com/a/4et6w https://imgur.com/a/4et6w After 18 years we can say that Galbraith was objectively wrong. When assets appear overvalued, sometimes they are, and sometimes people just don't see their potential at the time.
      - johnwheeler 9y ago
        This is ridiculous. By that measure, the Great Depression never happened.

spookthesunset 9y ago

> Why are you so certain? Because the fundamentals of Bitcoin and The Blockchain are complete garbage. Both are solutions in search of problems. Neither solve any real world problems outside of how to conduct shady, illegal business (murder for hire, crypto-ransomware, mail-order bath-salt delivery) and both do a pretty piss-poor job of even that. This is why bitcoin will ultimately fail. It is a useless product. Full stop.

johnwheeler 9y ago

> But where do you get your certainty? By way of an understanding of human nature. From the book Bull! A history of boom and bust: “...A bubble, Galbraith observed, is always supported by the belief that there is something new in the world. The history of past cycles is dismissed as irrelevant.“ That’s it in a nutshell. It is a time-tested part of who we are, and it’s almost like you’re either born with the ability to see that or you’re not. I don’t know why. I don’t know how much the price will go up, but it going up, even to a million dollars a coin, means little. It will eventually go down and violently so, and some people will be badly hurt. Just people being people. Assets need to be productive in order to be true investments. Like farmland or businesses. Otherwise, you’re speculating on price appreciation. Look at gold over the last 100 years and overlay its price graph over the Dow Jones during the same period. They’re not even close. http://www.macrotrends.net/1333/historical-gold-prices-100-year-chart http://www.macrotrends.net/1333/historical-gold-prices-100-y... http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/historical/marketindexes.html http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/historical/marketindexes.h... That’s the difference between speculation and investment.

panarky 9y ago
> ...A bubble, Galbraith observed ... Counterpoint: Galbraith confidently called the US stock market a "classic bubble" in April, 1999. At that time, the Dow Jones was at 10,494. Today it's at 24,504. Looking back with 20/20 hindsight, it now looks like Galbraith was wrong. Source: https://www.theguardian.com/business/1999/apr/18/observerbusiness.theobserver7 https://www.theguardian.com/business/1999/apr/18/observerbus... > Assets need to be productive in order to be true investments Counterpoint: Maybe assets need to be useful to have value. Land, copper, the balance on a Walmart gift card and my World of Warcraft gold don't produce anything, but they're useful, so they have value.
- JonnyNova 9y ago
  > > ...A bubble, Galbraith observed ... > Counterpoint: Galbraith confidently called the US stock market a "classic bubble" in April, 1999. At that time, the Dow Jones was at 10,494. Today it's at 24,504. No! Current day valuation versus 1999 valuation has nothing to do with each other. In 1999 the market was over valued and the bubble soon popped. > > Assets need to be productive in order to be true investments > Counterpoint: Maybe assets need to be useful to have value. Land, copper, the balance on a Walmart gift card and my World of Warcraft gold don't produce anything, but they're useful, so they have value. The key difference between an asset and investment is that investments produce returns.
  - panarky 9y ago
    > In 1999 the market was over valued and the bubble soon popped. Here's a chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Please identify this bubble popping that you speak of. https://imgur.com/a/4et6w https://imgur.com/a/4et6w After 18 years we can say that Galbraith was objectively wrong. When assets appear overvalued, sometimes they are, and sometimes people just don't see their potential at the time.
    - johnwheeler 9y ago
      This is ridiculous. By that measure, the Great Depression never happened.